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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2ARI
ARI

ARI

30-24

7
5
SF

SF

22-33

Oracle Park · San Francisco, California
32,336 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

SF spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

SF no-vig %

50.1%

open 51.1% · -1.0

+2.0+1.0SF SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL55.1%46.1%SF NO-VIG %May 25, 9 PMMay 26, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SF favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ARI wins

ARI 7 · SF 5 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ARI +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ARI0300012107
SF1010001115

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+7.7pp

best edge · SF · DraftKings

ARI

no live price

SF

★ best
+201DraftKings

edge +7.7pp · implied 31.2%

BookARISFBest edge
DraftKings-274+201★+7.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Tue, May 26·Final/SeriesARI wins series 3-0/VegasSF -115

Recap · MLB

Arizona Diamondbacks went into San Francisco Giants and beat them, 7–5.

ARI -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total cleared the 8.0 OVER by 4.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ARI · top performer

ARI
A

Adrian Del Castillo

DH

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

SF · top performer

SF
Eric Haase

Eric Haase

C

2.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ARI30-24
7
5
SF22-33
ARI30-24·SF22-33
ARI

ARI

30-24

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
K. MarteK. Marte★2B
1-55112101
SPRINT26.225
C. CarrollC. Carroll★RF
0-33000021
G. PerdomoG. Perdomo★SS
1-55110002
SPRINT26.838
N. ArenadoN. Arenado★3B
1-22110010
R. WaldschmidtR. Waldschmidt★CF
1-44110001
I. VargasI. Vargas★1B
1-44112001
SPRINT26.941
G. MorenoG. Moreno★C
1-22012010
SPRINT26.428
AA. Del Castillo★DH
1-33111100
SPRINT26.326
T. TroyT. Troy★OF
1-22110010
J. FernandezJ. FernandezDH
0-11000000
T. TawaT. TawaLF
0-11000001
Team8-3232787267
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
E. RodriguezE. Rodriguez★SP
6.0622261
K. GinkelK. GinkelRP
1.0111021
J. MorilloJ. MorilloRP
1.0111110
P. SewaldP. SewaldRP
1.0111011
Team9.09553103
SF

SF

22-33

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
W. AdamesW. Adames★SS
2-55221102
SPRINT27.457
C. SchmittC. Schmitt★DH
2-55122101
SPRINT2872
M. ChapmanM. Chapman★3B
0-11100031
SPRINT28.175
R. DeversR. Devers★1B
1-44011001
SPRINT25.716
H. BaderH. Bader★CF
0-44000002
J. RodríguezJ. Rodríguez★C
0-33000000
B. EldridgeB. Eldridge★DH
1-44010001
E. HaaseE. Haase★C
2-33121100
V. BericotoV. Bericoto★RF
1-22010001
W. BrennanW. BrennanLF
0-11000000
L. ArraezL. Arraez2B
0-11000000
D. GilbertD. GilbertCF
0-22000001
Team9-35355953310
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. MahleT. Mahle★SP
5.0333331
K. WinnK. WinnRP
1.0210010
E. MillerE. MillerRP
1.0122121
R. BoruckiR. BoruckiRP
2.0211210
Team9.0876672

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ARI

  • P. Sewald
    12 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      67%·91.6 mph·40% whiff
    • ST
      33%·83.1 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Ginkel
    9 pitches·33% CSW
    • SL
      67%·85.4 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      33%·95.9 mph·50% whiff

SF

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

9

7

Runs

5

0

Errors

1

Current series

ARI wins series 3-0

May 25ARIARI6@SFSF2
May 27ARIARI7@SFSF5today
May 27ARIARI3@SFSF2

Season series

ARI leads series 5-0

May 19SFSF2@ARIARI12
May 20SFSF3@ARIARI5
May 20SFSF3@ARIARI6
May 25ARIARI6@SFSF2
May 27ARIARI7@SFSF5today
May 27ARIARI3@SFSF2
Jun 30SFSF@ARIARIupcoming
Jul 1SFSF@ARIARIupcoming
Jul 2SFSF@ARIARIupcoming
Aug 28ARIARI@SFSFupcoming
Aug 29ARIARI@SFSFupcoming
Aug 30ARIARI@SFSFupcoming
Aug 30ARIARI@SFSFupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ARI -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ARIARI-10551%
SFSF-11553%

↗5· 3.3h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ARI -1.5↗SpreadBet ARI -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowARI ↔ SF

Biggest swing: 14pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

ARIARI

A. Del Castillo

DH

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

E. Rodriguez

E. Rodriguez

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 6 K · 2 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

SFSF
E. Haase

E. Haase

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.333 OPS

T. Mahle

T. Mahle

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 3 ER · 3 H · 3 BB

How it ended

ARI beat SF 7-5.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

SF vs ARI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SFBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+11pp→ 58% WP

Schmitt · homered to left center (411 feet).

SFBottom 3rd Inning · 3-1
+14pp→ 38% WP

Adames · tripled to left.

ARITop 7th Inning · 6-2
+12pp→ 94% WP

Marte · homered to left (452 feet), Troy scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ARI0300012107
SF1010001115

Period scoring

ARI won 3 · SF won 3

0
1

Inn 1

Schmitt 1

3
0

Inn 2

Vargas 1

0
1

Inn 3

Schmitt 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

1
0

Inn 6

Vargas 1

2
1

Inn 7

Marte 2

Haase 1

1
1

Inn 8

Moreno 1

Devers 1

0
1

Inn 9

Adames 1

ARI
SF

Play-by-play · 586 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    ARI 7·SF 5

  2. B9

    ·

    ARI 7·SF 5

  3. B9

    Schmitt struck out swinging.

    ·

    ARI 7·SF 5

    −2pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    ARI 7·SF 5

  5. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ARI 7·SF 5

  6. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ARI 7·SF 5

  7. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ARI 7·SF 5

  8. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    ARI 7·SF 5

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ARI 7·SF 5

  10. B9

    Paul Sewald pitches to Casey Schmitt

    ·

    ARI 7·SF 5

  11. B9

    ·

    ARI 7·SF 5

  12. B9

    Adames homered to center (410 feet).

    ·

    ARI 7·SF 5

    +1pp

  13. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 7·SF 5

  14. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ARI 7·SF 4

  15. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    ARI 7·SF 4

  16. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    ARI 7·SF 4

  17. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ARI 7·SF 4

  18. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ARI 7·SF 4

  19. B9

    Paul Sewald pitches to Willy Adames

    ·

    ARI 7·SF 5

  20. B9

    ·

    ARI 7·SF 4

  21. B9

    Gilbert fouled out to catcher.

    ·

    ARI 7·SF 4

    −1pp

  22. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 7·SF 4

  23. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ARI 7·SF 4

  24. B9

    Paul Sewald pitches to Drew Gilbert

    ·

    ARI 7·SF 4

  25. B9

    ·

    ARI 7·SF 4

  26. B9

    Arraez grounded out to first.

    ·

    ARI 7·SF 4

    −2pp

  27. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 7·SF 4

  28. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ARI 7·SF 4

  29. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ARI 7·SF 4

  30. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    ARI 7·SF 4

Team stats

ARI

Away

Stat

SF

Home

7

Runs

5

8

Hits

9

0

Errors

1

16

TB

22

2

HR

3

6

BB

3

7

K

10

14

LOB

16

Betting line

ARI -1.5·O/U 8·ARI -105/SF -115

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.95

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-105

Close price

-114

Open no-vig

48.9%

Close no-vig

50.9%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 12 players in cohort
  • Jose FernandezARI · DH
    SPRINT29.597
  • Corbin CarrollARI · RF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Matt ChapmanSF · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Casey SchmittSF · DH
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

SF vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 74 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Landen RouppSF
    6.1± 2.1low
  • Trevor McDonaldSF
    5.4± 2.3low
  • Logan WebbSF
    5.3± 1.7low

Hits

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.8± 1.0high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Tommy TroyARI
    1.3± 0.7low

Total bases

  • Ketel MarteARI
    3.1± 1.9high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    2.6± 2.9high
  • Casey SchmittSF
    2.4± 2.2high

RBIs

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.3± 1.3high
  • Casey SchmittSF
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    0.8± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.5± 3.5low
  • Logan WebbSF
    3.4± 2.6low
  • Adrian HouserSF
    3.1± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.8%

ensemble · ARI favored

  • Elo Static

    48.3%

    P(SF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    43.9%

    P(SF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    48.1%

    P(SF win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.02 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 29, 26sim 97
    257
    20(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 25, 26sim 96
    296
    26(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 12, 26sim 96
    29
    24(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 24, 26sim 95
    45
    26(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 5, 26sim 95
    210
    6(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 26, 26sim 95
    161
    23(H)12
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
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