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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3WSH
WSH

WSH

29-27

6
3
CLE

CLE

32-25

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio
21,473 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CLE spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 8.0 · -0.5

CLE no-vig %

55.1%

open 57.2% · -2.1

+0.5-2.0CLE SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.0TOTAL61.2%51.1%CLE NO-VIG %May 25, 6 PMMay 26, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CLE favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

WSH wins

WSH 6 · CLE 3 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CLE +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
WSH0400000026
CLE0000100023

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 12, 26sim 97
    266
    19(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 25, 26sim 97
    2010
    5(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 22, 26sim 95
    222
    16(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 24, 26sim 95
    223
    15(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 19, 26sim 95
    144
    10(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 26, 26sim 94
    222
    15(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+39.8pp

best edge · CLE · DraftKings

WSH

no live price

CLE

★ best
+330DraftKings

edge +39.8pp · implied 22.0%

BookWSHCLEBest edge
DraftKings-472+330★+39.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-2.06

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-149

Close price

-136

Open no-vig

57.2%

Close no-vig

55.1%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: miss

MLB·Tue, May 26·Final/SeriesWSH wins series 2-1/VegasCLE -132

Recap · MLB

Washington Nationals went into Cleveland Guardians and beat them, 6–3.

WSH +1.5 cashed (CLE lost outright). Total cleared the 7.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

WSH · top performer

WSH
James Wood

James Wood

RF

2.300OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

CLE · top performer

CLE
Brayan Rocchio

Brayan Rocchio

SS

2.000OPS

3-3

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Washington Nationals at Cleveland Guardians · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
WSH29-27
6
3
CLE32-25
WSH29-27·CLE32-25
WSH

WSH

29-27

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
3-44232111
SPRINT27.457
C. MeadC. Mead★1B
0-33000021
A. ChaparroA. Chaparro★1B
1-55012001
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
1-33010011
D. CrewsD. Crews★CF
1-44010000
D. LileD. Lile★LF
1-33110010
SPRINT29.395
J. YoungJ. Young★CF
1-44110000
SPRINT29.496
N. NunezN. Nunez★2B
1-44110001
K. RuizK. Ruiz★C
2-44122001
SPRINT25.411
Team11-34346116156
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. CavalliC. Cavalli★SP
6.0511270
M. ParkerM. ParkerRP
3.0322150
Team9.08333120
CLE

CLE

32-25

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. BazzanaT. Bazzana★2B
1-33011020
SPRINT27.662
J. RamirezJ. Ramirez★3B
1-44012000
SPRINT27.251
C. DeLauterC. DeLauter★RF
1-55010000
SPRINT26.941
K. ManzardoK. Manzardo★1B
1-44010003
D. SchneemannD. Schneemann★CF
0-33000001
A. MartinezA. Martinez★LF
0-44000003
S. KwanS. Kwan★CF
1-33210010
SPRINT26.530
P. BaileyP. Bailey★C
0-22000002
B. RocchioB. Rocchio★SS
3-33130000
SPRINT27.354
R. HoskinsR. Hoskins1B
0-11000001
D. FryD. FryRF
0-22000002
Team8-34343830312
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. CantilloJ. Cantillo★SP
2.0344411
C. HeuerC. HeuerRP
2.0100100
S. ArmstrongS. ArmstrongRP
1.0100010
C. HoldermanC. HoldermanRP
1.0100010
W. DionW. DionSP
3.0522030
Team9.01166561

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

WSH

  • C. Cavalli
    87 pitches·36% CSW
    • KC
      46%·86.6 mph·37% whiff
    • FF
      36%·97.1 mph·27% whiff
    • CH
      10%·88.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      6%·96.4 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      2%·86.2 mph·— whiff
  • M. Parker
    47 pitches·43% CSW
    • SL
      49%·83.9 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      40%·94.6 mph·13% whiff
    • CU
      11%·79.7 mph·100% whiff

CLE

  • J. Cantillo
    69 pitches·23% CSW
    • CH
      39%·79.5 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      38%·91.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      20%·78.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      3%·83.1 mph·— whiff
  • C. Heuer
    41 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      54%·95.3 mph·7% whiff
    • SL
      32%·86.3 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      15%·86.0 mph·— whiff
  • W. Dion
    33 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      30%·92.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      24%·79.4 mph·17% whiff
    • FC
      21%·88.2 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      18%·81.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      6%·90.9 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Armstrong
    18 pitches·6% CSW
    • FF
      44%·93.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      33%·90.4 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      17%·84.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      6%·94.8 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Holderman
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      58%·97.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      25%·85.8 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      8%·82.8 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      8%·97.1 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

8

6

Runs

3

0

Errors

0

Current series

WSH wins series 2-1

May 25WSHWSH10@CLECLE2
May 26WSHWSH6@CLECLE3today
May 27WSHWSH2@CLECLE3

Season series

WSH leads series 2-0

May 25WSHWSH10@CLECLE2
May 26WSHWSH6@CLECLE3today
May 27WSHWSH2@CLECLE3

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CLE -1.5

↗1.5pt· 6.3h

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

↘0.5pt· 6.3h

Moneyline

WSHWSH+10948%
CLECLE-13257%

↗13· 6.3h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CLE -1.5↗SpreadBet CLE -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

7.5

-0.5 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowWSH ↔ CLE

Biggest swing: 15pp · Top 2nd Inning

WSHWSH
J. Wood

J. Wood

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.300 OPS

C. Cavalli

C. Cavalli

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

CLECLE
B. Rocchio

B. Rocchio

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-3 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

W. Dion

W. Dion

SP

Top reliever

3.0 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 5 H

How it ended

WSH beat CLE 6-3.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

CLE vs WSH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
WSHTop 2nd Inning · 0-0
+6pp→ 52% WP

Young · singled to center, Lile to second.

WSHTop 2nd Inning · 4-0
+15pp→ 81% WP

Wood · homered to right (401 feet), Ruiz scored.

CLEBottom 5th Inning · 4-0
+8pp→ 25% WP

Bazzana · walked, Rocchio to second, Kwan to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
WSH0400000026
CLE0000100023

Period scoring

WSH won 1 · CLE won 1

0
0

Inn 1

4
0

Inn 2

Ruiz 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
1

Inn 5

Ram 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

2
2

Inn 9

Chaparro 2

Bazzana 1

WSH
CLE

Play-by-play · 596 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    WSH 6·CLE 3

  2. B9

    · ·

    WSH 6·CLE 3

  3. B9

    DeLauter grounded out to first.

    · ·

    WSH 6·CLE 3

    −2pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    WSH 6·CLE 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    WSH 6·CLE 3

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    WSH 6·CLE 3

  7. B9

    Mitchell Parker pitches to Chase DeLauter

    · ·

    WSH 6·CLE 3

  8. B9

    · ·

    WSH 6·CLE 3

  9. B9

    Ramírez grounded out to third, Rocchio scored.

    · ·

    WSH 6·CLE 3

    −4pp

  10. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    WSH 6·CLE 3

  11. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    WSH 6·CLE 2

  12. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    WSH 6·CLE 2

  13. B9

    Mitchell Parker pitches to Jose Ramirez

    · ·

    WSH 6·CLE 3

  14. B9

    · ·

    WSH 6·CLE 2

  15. B9

    Bazzana doubled to right, Kwan scored, Rocchio to third.

    · ·

    WSH 6·CLE 2

    +4pp

  16. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    WSH 6·CLE 2

  17. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    WSH 6·CLE 1

  18. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    WSH 6·CLE 1

  19. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    WSH 6·CLE 1

  20. B9

    Mitchell Parker pitches to Travis Bazzana

    · ·

    WSH 6·CLE 2

  21. B9

    · ·

    WSH 6·CLE 1

  22. B9

    Rocchio singled to left, Kwan to second.

    · ·

    WSH 6·CLE 1

    +1pp

  23. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    WSH 6·CLE 1

  24. B9

    Mitchell Parker pitches to Brayan Rocchio

    · ·

    WSH 6·CLE 1

  25. B9

    · ·

    WSH 6·CLE 1

  26. B9

    Fry struck out looking.

    · ·

    WSH 6·CLE 1

    −1pp

  27. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    WSH 6·CLE 1

  28. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    WSH 6·CLE 1

  29. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    WSH 6·CLE 1

  30. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    WSH 6·CLE 1

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

CLE

Home

6

Runs

3

11

Hits

8

0

Errors

0

15

TB

10

1

HR

0

5

BB

3

6

K

12

17

LOB

20

Betting line

CLE -1.5·O/U 7.5·WSH +109/CLE -132

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

CLE vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    7.2± 3.6low
  • Parker MessickCLE
    6.4± 2.1low
  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 4.3low

Hits

  • James WoodWSH
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    2.4± 2.0high
  • James WoodWSH
    2.3± 2.8high
  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    2.0± 2.1high

RBIs

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    0.8± 1.2high
  • James WoodWSH
    0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

  • Slade CecconiCLE
    3.0± 2.5low
  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Tanner BibeeCLE
    2.7± 3.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.1%

ensemble · CLE favored

  • Elo Static

    60.6%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    60.7%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    59.1%

    P(CLE win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.74 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 13 players in cohort
  • Nasim NunezWSH · 2B
    SPRINT29.899
  • Jacob YoungWSH · CF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483