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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+6MIL
STL

STL

29-24

0
6
MIL

MIL

32-20

American Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin
33,532 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

MIL spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 7.5 · +0.5

MIL no-vig %

60.2%

open 58.3% · +1.9

+0.5-2.0MIL SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.0TOTAL64.2%54.3%MIL NO-VIG %May 25, 6 PMMay 26, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIL wins

STL 0 · MIL 6 (by 6)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIL +14pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
STL0000000000
MIL000150006

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

54%Last 7 · 55-46
61%Last 30 · 318-205
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+2.1pp

best edge · STL · DraftKings

STL

★ best
+194DraftKings

edge +2.1pp · implied 31.9%

MIL

no live price

BookSTLMILBest edge
DraftKings+194★-263+2.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 966 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 25, 26sim 100
    241
    8(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 27, 26sim 97
    241
    8(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 6, 26sim 94
    136
    10(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 5, 26sim 93
    172
    16(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 12, 26sim 93
    135
    19(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 29, 26sim 93
    283
    19(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Tue, May 26·Final/SeriesMIL wins series 3-0/VegasMIL -218

Recap · MLB

Milwaukee Brewers held off St. Louis Cardinals, 6–0. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

MIL -1.5 cashed (won by 6). Total stayed UNDER 8.0 by 2.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

STL · top performer

STL
Bryan Torres

Bryan Torres

OF

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MIL · top performer

MIL
Jake Bauers

Jake Bauers

1B

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
STL29-24
0
6
MIL32-20
STL29-24·MIL32-20
STL

STL

29-24

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WetherholtJ. Wetherholt★2B
0-44000001
I. HerreraI. Herrera★DH
1-33010011
SPRINT25.513
J. WalkerJ. Walker★RF
1-44010000
SPRINT28.891
A. BurlesonA. Burleson★1B
1-44010001
SPRINT25.513
J. FerminJ. Fermin★LF
0-44000000
M. WinnM. Winn★SS
0-44000002
B. TorresB. Torres★OF
2-44020000
Y. PozoY. Pozo★C
1-33010000
V. Scott IIV. Scott II★CF
1-33010000
N. GormanN. Gorman3B
0-11000000
Team7-3434070015
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. McGreevyM. McGreevy★SP
4.0755361
R. FernandezR. FernandezRP
1.0111131
J. BruihlJ. BruihlRP
2.0200020
M. PushardM. PushardRP
1.0000010
Team8.010664122
MIL

MIL

32-20

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. YelichC. Yelich★DH
3-55130000
SPRINT27.148
J. ChourioJ. Chourio★LF
1-33110011
B. TurangB. Turang★2B
0-33100012
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★C
2-44122002
SPRINT24.96
J. BauersJ. Bauers★1B
2-44121101
SPRINT2744
G. MitchellG. Mitchell★CF
1-44113103
SPRINT29.798
L. RengifoL. Rengifo★3B
0-33000010
S. FrelickS. Frelick★RF
1-33010011
D. HamiltonD. Hamilton★SS
0-44000002
Team10-333361062412
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. HarrisonK. Harrison★SP
6.0400020
G. AndersonG. AndersonRP
1.0100010
A. UribeA. UribeRP
1.0100120
T. MegillT. MegillRP
1.0100000
Team9.0700150

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

STL

  • M. McGreevy
    89 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      27%·91.5 mph·31% whiff
    • CH
      22%·87.3 mph·22% whiff
    • FC
      18%·86.8 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      11%·90.2 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      10%·77.8 mph·40% whiff
    • ST
      8%·81.8 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      3%·84.6 mph·— whiff
  • J. Bruihl
    28 pitches·32% CSW
    • SI
      68%·91.6 mph·22% whiff
    • ST
      21%·80.5 mph·40% whiff
    • CH
      4%·83.5 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      4%·87.8 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      4%·92.5 mph·— whiff
  • R. Fernandez
    21 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      48%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      38%·86.1 mph·60% whiff
    • CH
      10%·87.3 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      5%·92.1 mph·— whiff
  • M. Pushard
    10 pitches·50% CSW
    • FF
      60%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      20%·89.2 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      10%·87.9 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      10%·85.6 mph·0% whiff

MIL

  • K. Harrison
    92 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      52%·95.0 mph·7% whiff
    • SV
      42%·82.4 mph·12% whiff
    • CH
      5%·86.5 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Uribe
    23 pitches·17% CSW
    • SI
      70%·98.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      30%·87.1 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Megill
    12 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      83%·97.6 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      17%·86.9 mph·100% whiff
  • G. Anderson
    9 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      44%·94.3 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      33%·81.8 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      22%·93.6 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

10

0

Runs

6

0

Errors

1

Current series

MIL wins series 3-0

May 25STLSTL1@MILMIL5
May 26STLSTL0@MILMIL6today
May 27STLSTL1@MILMIL2

Season series

MIL leads series 3-1

May 4MILMIL3@STLSTL6
May 5MILMIL0@STLSTL0
May 6MILMIL6@STLSTL2
May 25STLSTL1@MILMIL5
May 26STLSTL0@MILMIL6today
May 27STLSTL1@MILMIL2
Jul 6MILMIL@STLSTLupcoming
Jul 7MILMIL@STLSTLupcoming
Jul 7MILMIL@STLSTLupcoming
Jul 8MILMIL@STLSTLupcoming
Jul 9MILMIL@STLSTLupcoming
Sep 25STLSTL@MILMILupcoming
Sep 26STLSTL@MILMILupcoming
Sep 27STLSTL@MILMILupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIL -1.5

↗1.5pt· 6.3h

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

↗0.5pt· 6.3h

Moneyline

STLSTL+17836%
MILMIL-21869%

↘14· 6.3h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIL -1.5↗SpreadBet MIL -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

8.0

+0.5 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSTL ↔ MIL

Biggest swing: 12pp · Bottom 4th Inning

STLSTL
B. Torres

B. Torres

OF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

M. McGreevy

M. McGreevy

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 6 K · 5 ER · 7 H · 3 BB

MILMIL
J. Bauers

J. Bauers

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

K. Harrison

K. Harrison

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 2 K · 0 ER · 4 H

How it ended

MIL beat STL 6-0.

Win probability

MIL vs STL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
STLTop 3rd Inning · 0-0
+8pp→ 41% WP

Pozo · singled to right.

MILBottom 4th Inning · 0-1
+12pp→ 78% WP

Bauers · homered to right center (394 feet).

MILBottom 5th Inning · 0-3
+7pp→ 96% WP

Contreras · doubled to center, Yelich scored and Chourio scored, Turang to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
STL0000000000
MIL00015000—6

Period scoring

STL won 0 · MIL won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
1

Inn 4

Bauers 1

0
5

Inn 5

Mitchell 3

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

STL
MIL

Play-by-play · 542 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    STL 0·MIL 6

  2. T9

    Gorman flied out to left.

    · ·

    STL 0·MIL 6

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    STL 0·MIL 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    STL 0·MIL 6

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    STL 0·MIL 6

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    STL 0·MIL 6

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    STL 0·MIL 6

  8. T9

    Trevor Megill pitches to Nolan Gorman

    · ·

    STL 0·MIL 6

  9. T9

    Gorman hit for Pozo

    ·

    STL 0·MIL 6

  10. T9

    ·

    STL 0·MIL 6

  11. T9

    Torres singled to center.

    ·

    STL 0·MIL 6

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    STL 0·MIL 6

  13. T9

    Trevor Megill pitches to Bryan Torres

    ·

    STL 0·MIL 6

  14. T9

    ·

    STL 0·MIL 6

  15. T9

    Winn grounded out to first.

    ·

    STL 0·MIL 6

  16. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    STL 0·MIL 6

  17. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    STL 0·MIL 6

  18. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    STL 0·MIL 6

  19. T9

    Trevor Megill pitches to Masyn Winn

    ·

    STL 0·MIL 6

  20. T9

    ·

    STL 0·MIL 6

  21. T9

    Fermín flied out to right.

    ·

    STL 0·MIL 6

  22. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    STL 0·MIL 6

  23. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    STL 0·MIL 6

  24. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    STL 0·MIL 6

  25. T9

    Trevor Megill pitches to Jose Fermin

    ·

    STL 0·MIL 6

  26. T9

    Megill relieved Uribe

    ·

    STL 0·MIL 6

  27. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    STL 0·MIL 6

  28. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    STL 0·MIL 6

  29. B8

    ·

    STL 0·MIL 6

  30. B8

    Yelich lined out to center.

    ·

    STL 0·MIL 6

Team stats

STL

Away

Stat

MIL

Home

0

Runs

6

7

Hits

10

0

Errors

1

7

TB

19

0

HR

2

1

BB

4

5

K

12

14

LOB

18

Betting line

MIL -1.5·O/U 8·STL +178/MIL -218

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+3.34

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-156

Close price

-181

Open no-vig

58.3%

Close no-vig

61.6%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort
  • Garrett MitchellMIL · CF
    SPRINT29.798
  • Jordan WalkerSTL · RF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Sal FrelickMIL · RF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Brice TurangMIL · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Masyn WinnSTL · SS
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

MIL vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 88 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.0± 2.7low
  • Kyle HarrisonMIL
    6.1± 4.9low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    5.0± 3.7low

Hits

  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.4± 1.0high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Bryan TorresSTL
    1.2± 1.1low

Total bases

  • Bryan TorresSTL
    2.2± 2.6low
  • Christian YelichMIL
    2.0± 2.4high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Jake BauersMIL
    0.8± 1.2high
  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Christian YelichMIL
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.9± 2.7low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    2.8± 2.1low
  • Dustin MaySTL
    2.6± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

67.1%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    63.8%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    65.5%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    64.5%

    P(MIL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.69 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.