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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1PHI
PHI

PHI

28-27

4
3
SD

SD

31-23

Petco Park · San Diego, California
40,399 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

SD spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 8.0 · -0.5

SD no-vig %

52.6%

open 53.2% · -0.6

+2.0-2.0SD SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.0TOTAL57.2%48.6%SD NO-VIG %MODEL 50.5%May 25, 6 PMMay 26, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

PHI 4 · SD 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SD +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
PHI1120000004
SD0002000103

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+26.6pp

best edge · SD · DraftKings

PHI

no live price

SD

★ best
+294DraftKings

edge +26.6pp · implied 23.9%

BookPHISDBest edge
DraftKings-427+294★+26.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Tue, May 26·Final/SeriesPHI wins series 3-0/VegasSD -110

Recap · MLB

Philadelphia Phillies went into San Diego Padres and beat them, 4–3. It came down to the final possession.

SD +1.5 cashed (PHI won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 7.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PHI · top performer

PHI
Bryce Harper

Bryce Harper

1B

2.750OPS

2-1

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

SD · top performer

SD
Manny Machado

Manny Machado

3B

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
PHI28-27
4
3
SD31-23
PHI28-27·SD31-23
PHI

PHI

28-27

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
1-55010000
T. TurnerT. Turner★SS
2-55121101
SPRINT29.798
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
1-22211121
SPRINT2744
B. MarshB. Marsh★LF
2-22020000
SPRINT28.175
A. BohmA. Bohm★3B
1-44011000
SPRINT26.632
B. StottB. Stott★2B
0-44000001
J.T. RealmutoJ.T. Realmuto★C
2-33121100
SPRINT28.381
J. CrawfordJ. Crawford★CF
0-44000000
E. SosaE. Sosa★2B
0-44000001
A. GarciaA. GarciaRF
0-11000010
Team9-3434494334
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. NolaA. Nola★SP
6.0322051
O. KerkeringO. KerkeringRP
1.0000130
B. KellerB. KellerRP
1.0211111
J. DuranJ. DuranRP
1.0000020
Team9.05332112
SD

SD

31-23

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. Tatis Jr.F. Tatis Jr.★RF
1-44010000
SPRINT28.483
X. BogaertsX. Bogaerts★SS
1-44010000
SPRINT27.148
G. SheetsG. Sheets★1B
1-33110011
SPRINT26.735
M. MachadoM. Machado★3B
1-33112110
SPRINT24.32
M. AndujarM. Andujar★DH
0-44000001
J. MerrillJ. Merrill★CF
0-44000002
T. FranceT. France★1B
0-44000004
R. LaureanoR. Laureano★LF
1-33111101
SPRINT2872
F. FerminF. Fermin★C
0-22000001
N. CastellanosN. CastellanosRF
0-11000001
Team5-32323532211
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. VasquezR. Vasquez★SP
5.2844123
B. RodriguezB. RodriguezRP
1.1000010
W. PeraltaW. PeraltaRP
1.0000200
A. MorejonA. MorejonRP
1.0100010
Team9.0944343

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

PHI

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

SD

  • A. Morejon
    13 pitches·15% CSW
    • SI
      54%·99.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      23%·88.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      15%·99.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      8%·92.3 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

5

4

Runs

3

0

Errors

0

Current series

PHI wins series 3-0

May 25PHIPHI3@SDSD0
May 27PHIPHI4@SDSD3today
May 27PHIPHI3@SDSD0

Season series

PHI leads series 2-0

May 25PHIPHI3@SDSD0
May 27PHIPHI4@SDSD3today
May 27PHIPHI3@SDSD0
Jun 2SDSD@PHIPHIupcoming
Jun 3SDSD@PHIPHIupcoming
Jun 4SDSD@PHIPHIupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHI -1.5

↗1.5pt· 6.3h

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

↘0.5pt· 6.3h

Moneyline

PHIPHI-11052%
SDSD-11052%

↗4· 6.3h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

7.5

-0.5 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPHI ↔ SD

Biggest swing: 17pp · Bottom 4th Inning

PHIPHI
B. Harper

B. Harper

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.750 OPS

A. Nola

A. Nola

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 3 H

SDSD
M. Machado

M. Machado

3B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

R. Vasquez

R. Vasquez

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 2 K · 4 ER · 8 H · 1 BB

How it ended

PHI beat SD 4-3.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

SD vs PHI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SDBottom 4th Inning · 4-2
+17pp→ 32% WP

Machado · homered to left (362 feet), Sheets scored.

SDBottom 8th Inning · 4-3
+15pp→ 31% WP

Laureano · homered to left center (409 feet).

PHIBottom 8th Inning · 4-3
+14pp→ 84% WP

Machado · grounded out to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
PHI1120000004
SD0002000103

Period scoring

PHI won 3 · SD won 2

1
0

Inn 1

Harper 1

1
0

Inn 2

Realmuto 1

2
0

Inn 3

Turner 1

0
2

Inn 4

Machado 2

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Laureano 1

0
0

Inn 9

PHI
SD

Play-by-play · 554 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    PHI 4·SD 3

  2. B9

    ·

    PHI 4·SD 3

  3. B9

    France struck out swinging.

    ·

    PHI 4·SD 3

    −4pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    PHI 4·SD 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    PHI 4·SD 3

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    PHI 4·SD 3

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    PHI 4·SD 3

  8. B9

    Jhoan Duran pitches to Ty France

    · ·

    PHI 4·SD 3

  9. B9

    ·

    PHI 4·SD 3

  10. B9

    Merrill struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    PHI 4·SD 3

    −6pp

  11. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    PHI 4·SD 3

  12. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    PHI 4·SD 3

  13. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    PHI 4·SD 3

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    PHI 4·SD 3

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    PHI 4·SD 3

  16. B9

    Jhoan Duran pitches to Jackson Merrill

    · ·

    PHI 4·SD 3

  17. B9

    ·

    PHI 4·SD 3

  18. B9

    Andujar grounded out to third.

    ·

    PHI 4·SD 3

    −5pp

  19. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PHI 4·SD 3

  20. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    PHI 4·SD 3

  21. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    PHI 4·SD 3

  22. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    PHI 4·SD 3

  23. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    PHI 4·SD 3

  24. B9

    Jhoan Duran pitches to Miguel Andujar

    · ·

    PHI 4·SD 3

  25. B9

    Duran relieved Keller

    · ·

    PHI 4·SD 3

  26. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    PHI 4·SD 3

  27. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    PHI 4·SD 3

  28. T9

    ·

    PHI 4·SD 3

  29. T9

    Turner lined into double play, second to first, Schwarber doubled off first.

    · ·

    PHI 4·SD 3

  30. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PHI 4·SD 3

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

SD

Home

4

Runs

3

9

Hits

5

0

Errors

0

18

TB

11

3

HR

2

3

BB

2

4

K

11

13

LOB

7

Betting line

PHI -1.5·O/U 7.5·PHI -110/SD -110

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Trea TurnerPHI · SS
    SPRINT29.798
  • Bryson StottPHI · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • Jackson MerrillSD · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • J.T. RealmutoPHI · C
    SPRINT28.381

Player projections

SD vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 82 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.5± 3.6low
  • Zack WheelerPHI
    6.0± 2.4low

Hits

  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Brandon MarshPHI
    1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.5± 2.8high
  • Gavin SheetsSD
    1.8± 3.1high
  • Brandon MarshPHI
    1.6± 1.4high

RBIs

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    0.9± 1.6high
  • Bryson StottPHI
    0.6± 1.2high
  • Gavin SheetsSD
    0.6± 1.3high

Earned runs

  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.8± 2.9low
  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.0± 3.0low
  • Yu DarvishSD
    2.6± 1.2medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.8%

ensemble · SD favored

  • Elo Static

    52.3%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    55.3%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    52.2%

    P(SD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.43 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 19, 26sim 96
    174
    22(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 25, 26sim 96
    223
    25(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 18, 26sim 95
    174
    22(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 25, 26sim 94
    53
    14(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 27, 26sim 94
    223
    25(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 11, 26sim 94
    56
    15(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs