Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres: Final Score & Box Score — May 26, 2026

FINAL+1PHI

PHI

28-27

31-23

Petco Park · San Diego, California

40,399 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

SD spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 8.0 · -0.5

SD no-vig %

52.6%

open 53.2% · -0.6

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.8%

ensemble · SD favored

Elo Static
52.3%
P(SD win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
54.0%
P(SD win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
51.5%
P(SD win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.04 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+3.6pp

best edge · SD · DraftKings

PHI

no live price

★ best

-110DraftKings

edge +3.6pp · implied 50.0%

Book	PHI	SD	Best edge
DraftKings	-110	-110★	+3.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

SD vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 114 high confidence

Strikeouts

Zack WheelerPHI
7.5± 3.7medium
Jesus LuzardoPHI
7.4± 3.3high
Cristopher SanchezPHI
6.3± 3.1high

Hits

Luis ArraezPHI
1.5± 1.3high
Jackson MerrillSD
1.4± 1.1high
Trea TurnerPHI
1.3± 1.1high

Total bases

Jackson MerrillSD
2.2± 1.9high
Trea TurnerPHI
2.1± 2.1high
Bryce HarperPHI
2.0± 1.6high

RBIs

Manny MachadoSD
0.8± 1.4high
Alec BohmPHI
0.7± 1.2high
Bryan De La CruzPHI
0.7± 1.4low

Earned runs

Andrew PainterPHI
3.8± 2.6medium
Aaron NolaPHI
3.1± 1.7high
Walker BuehlerSD
3.0± 2.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PHI

league avg

.706

OPS

◀

.720

.696

.305

OBP

.318

▶

.312

4.39

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.23

4.17

Team ERA

4.18

4.15

1.30

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.32

9.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

PHI 4 · SD 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SD +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
PHI	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	4
SD	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	1	0	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. SchwarberDH	.232	5	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. TurnerSS	.225	5	1	2	1	1	0	1
B. Harper1B	.272	2	2	1	1	1	2	1
B. MarshLF	.326	2	0	2	0	0	0	0
A. Bohm3B	.211	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
B. Stott2B	.231	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J.T. RealmutoC	.231	3	1	2	1	1	0	0
J. CrawfordCF	.229	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. SosaLF	.212	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. GarciaRF	.204	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		34	4	9	4	3	3	4

Player

.232

.225

.272

.326

.211

.231

.231

.229

.212

.204

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. NolaSP	6.0	3	2	2	0	5	80
O. KerkeringRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	16
B. KellerRP	1.0	2	1	1	1	1	16
J. DuranRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	14
Team	9.0	5	3	3	2	11	126

Player

6.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

126

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. Tatis Jr.RF	.255	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
X. BogaertsSS	.245	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
G. Sheets1B	.255	3	1	1	0	0	1	1
M. Machado3B	.173	3	1	1	2	1	1	0
M. AndujarDH	.274	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. MerrillCF	.194	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
T. France1B	.277	4	0	0	0	0	0	4
R. LaureanoLF	.211	3	1	1	1	1	0	1
F. FerminC	.143	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. JohnsonRF	.188	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. CastellanosRF	.182	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. DuranC	.100	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	3	5	3	2	2	11

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. VasquezSP	5.2	8	4	4	1	2	99
B. RodriguezRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	27
W. PeraltaRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	0	25
A. MorejonRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	9
Team	9.0	9	4	4	3	4	160

Team

PHI

3 sub-models, blended.

Where to bet this game.

SD vs PHI.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

SD vs PHI.

3 sub-models, blended.