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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5CIN
CIN

CIN

29-25

7
2
NYM

NYM

22-33

Citi Field · Queens, New York
36,848 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

NYM spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.0 · +0.5

NYM no-vig %

47.8%

open 48.3% · -0.4

+2.0+1.0NYM SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 6.5TOTAL52.3%43.8%NYM NO-VIG %May 26, 12 AMMay 26, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYM favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CIN wins

CIN 7 · NYM 2 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CIN +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CIN2003010107
NYM0000020002

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+9.0pp

best edge · NYM · DraftKings

CIN

no live price

NYM

★ best
+215DraftKings

edge +9.0pp · implied 29.8%

BookCINNYMBest edge
DraftKings-294+215★+9.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 25, 26sim 100
    177
    21(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 27, 26sim 94
    172
    21(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 18, 26sim 94
    58
    6(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 7, 26sim 94
    152
    3(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 1, 26sim 94
    147
    9(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 94
    158
    3(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Tue, May 26·Final/SeriesCIN wins series 2-1/VegasCIN -122

Recap · MLB

Cincinnati Reds went into New York Mets and beat them, 7–2.

CIN -1.5 cashed (won by 5). Total cleared the 7.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CIN · top performer

CIN
JJ Bleday

JJ Bleday

LF

1.200OPS

5-3

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

NYM · top performer

NYM
Luis Torrens

Luis Torrens

C

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Cincinnati Reds at New York Mets · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CIN29-25
7
2
NYM22-33
CIN29-25·NYM22-33
CIN

CIN

29-25

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. DunnB. Dunn★RF
1-44110011
E. De La CruzE. De La Cruz★SS
2-55022002
SPRINT2872
S. StewartS. Stewart★1B
2-55121002
SPRINT26.530
S. SteerS. Steer★LF
0-33100021
E. SuarezE. Suarez★DH
2-55022002
SPRINT25.818
D. MyersD. Myers★CF
2-44120011
J. BledayJ. Bleday★LF
3-55130002
SPRINT27.457
T. StephensonT. Stephenson★C
2-44122011
SPRINT26.735
M. McLainM. McLain★2B
1-44110000
Team15-393971570512
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. BurnsC. Burns★SP
5.1422281
S. MollS. MollRP
1.2000020
P. JohnsonP. JohnsonRP
0.2100000
B. BurkeB. BurkeRP
0.1000000
T. SantillanT. SantillanRP
1.0000000
Team9.05222101
NYM

NYM

22-33

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. BengeC. Benge★RF
0-44000001
SPRINT28.586
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
1-44110001
SPRINT25.716
J. SotoJ. Soto★LF
1-44112101
SPRINT25.513
A.J. EwingA.J. Ewing★CF
1-44010001
J. YoungJ. Young★1B
0-11000011
B. BatyB. Baty★3B
0-11000011
M. SemienM. Semien★2B
0-33000001
M. MelendezM. Melendez★DH
0-33000001
L. TorrensL. Torrens★C
2-33020001
SPRINT26.428
M. VientosM. Vientos1B
0-22000000
E. WagamanE. Wagaman1B
0-22000001
Team5-31312521210
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
D. PetersonD. Peterson★SP
5.01166340
S. ManaeaS. ManaeaRP
3.0311260
A.J. MinterA.J. MinterRP
1.0100020
Team9.015775120

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CIN

  • C. Burns
    90 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      64%·98.0 mph·6% whiff
    • SL
      28%·90.9 mph·88% whiff
    • CH
      8%·90.7 mph·100% whiff
  • S. Moll
    24 pitches·21% CSW
    • SI
      33%·91.8 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      25%·85.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      25%·81.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      17%·93.3 mph·33% whiff
  • T. Santillan
    10 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      50%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SV
      50%·84.4 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Johnson
    9 pitches·22% CSW
    • CU
      67%·85.2 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      33%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Burke
    4 pitches·50% CSW
    • FF
      50%·97.2 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      50%·87.9 mph·50% whiff

NYM

  • D. Peterson
    90 pitches·24% CSW
    • SL
      28%·86.3 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      23%·91.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      22%·92.0 mph·30% whiff
    • CU
      14%·80.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      12%·85.8 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Manaea
    68 pitches·31% CSW
    • FC
      28%·83.7 mph·30% whiff
    • ST
      28%·74.1 mph·43% whiff
    • FF
      22%·90.9 mph·22% whiff
    • SI
      18%·90.6 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      4%·84.4 mph·0% whiff
  • A.J. Minter
    16 pitches·38% CSW
    • FC
      50%·88.5 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      44%·92.9 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      6%·85.6 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

15

Hits

5

7

Runs

2

0

Errors

1

Current series

CIN wins series 2-1

May 25CINCIN7@NYMNYM2
May 26CINCIN7@NYMNYM2today
May 27CINCIN2@NYMNYM4

Season series

CIN leads series 2-0

May 25CINCIN7@NYMNYM2
May 26CINCIN7@NYMNYM2today
May 27CINCIN2@NYMNYM4
Jun 15NYMNYM@CINCINupcoming
Jun 16NYMNYM@CINCINupcoming
Jun 17NYMNYM@CINCINupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CIN -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

↗0.5pt· 39m

Moneyline

CINCIN-12255%
NYMNYM+10150%

↗202· 39m

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CIN -1.5↗SpreadBet CIN -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

+0.5 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCIN ↔ NYM

Biggest swing: 19pp · Top 1st Inning

CINCIN
J. Bleday

J. Bleday

LF

Batter of the game

3-for-5 · 1 R · 1.200 OPS

C. Burns

C. Burns

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 8 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

NYMNYM
L. Torrens

L. Torrens

C

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.333 OPS

D. Peterson

D. Peterson

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 6 ER · 11 H · 3 BB

How it ended

CIN beat NYM 7-2. Biggest WP swing of the night came in the top 1st inning (19pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

NYM vs CIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CINTop 1st Inning · 2-0
+19pp→ 75% WP

Suárez doubled to center, Steer scored and Stewart scored.

NYMTop 2nd Inning · 2-0
+9pp→ 23% WP

Dunn · grounded into double play, pitcher to catcher to first, McLain to second, Stephenson to third, Bleday out at home.

CINTop 4th Inning · 5-0
+8pp→ 93% WP

De La Cruz · doubled to right, McLain scored and Stephenson scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CIN2003010107
NYM0000020002

Period scoring

CIN won 3 · NYM won 1

2
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

3
0

Inn 4

Cruz 2

0
0

Inn 5

1
2

Inn 6

Stephenson 1

Soto 2

0
0

Inn 7

1
0

Inn 8

Stewart 1

0
0

Inn 9

CIN
NYM

Play-by-play · 592 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    CIN 7·NYM 2

  2. B9

    ·

    CIN 7·NYM 2

  3. B9

    Wagaman grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    CIN 7·NYM 2

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CIN 7·NYM 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CIN 7·NYM 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CIN 7·NYM 2

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CIN 7·NYM 2

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CIN 7·NYM 2

  9. B9

    Tony Santillan pitches to Eric Wagaman

    ·

    CIN 7·NYM 2

  10. B9

    ·

    CIN 7·NYM 2

  11. B9

    Vientos grounded out to first.

    ·

    CIN 7·NYM 2

  12. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CIN 7·NYM 2

  13. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CIN 7·NYM 2

  14. B9

    Tony Santillan pitches to Mark Vientos

    ·

    CIN 7·NYM 2

  15. B9

    ·

    CIN 7·NYM 2

  16. B9

    Ewing grounded out to first.

    ·

    CIN 7·NYM 2

  17. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CIN 7·NYM 2

  18. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CIN 7·NYM 2

  19. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CIN 7·NYM 2

  20. B9

    Tony Santillan pitches to A.J. Ewing

    ·

    CIN 7·NYM 2

  21. B9

    Santillan relieved Burke

    ·

    CIN 7·NYM 2

  22. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    CIN 7·NYM 2

  23. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    CIN 7·NYM 2

  24. T9

    · ·

    CIN 7·NYM 2

  25. T9

    Stephenson popped out to third.

    · ·

    CIN 7·NYM 2

  26. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CIN 7·NYM 2

  27. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CIN 7·NYM 2

  28. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CIN 7·NYM 2

  29. T9

    A.J. Minter pitches to Tyler Stephenson

    · ·

    CIN 7·NYM 2

  30. T9

    · ·

    CIN 7·NYM 2

Team stats

CIN

Away

Stat

NYM

Home

7

Runs

2

15

Hits

5

0

Errors

1

18

TB

9

0

HR

1

5

BB

2

12

K

10

22

LOB

11

Betting line

CIN -1.5·O/U 7.5·CIN -122/NYM +101

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.87

CLV pp

Open price

-118

Close price

-122

Open no-vig

51.7%

Close no-vig

52.6%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

Player projections

NYM vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 75 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Chase BurnsCIN
    6.5± 3.8low
  • Freddy PeraltaNYM
    5.5± 3.2low

Hits

  • Blake DunnCIN
    1.3± 1.1medium
  • Sal StewartCIN
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.7± 2.7high
  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    2.2± 1.7high
  • Sal StewartCIN
    2.2± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Elly De La CruzCIN
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Chris PaddackCIN
    3.5± 3.4low
  • Nick LodoloCIN
    3.3± 2.3low
  • Brady SingerCIN
    3.2± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 13 players in cohort
  • Carson BengeNYM · RF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Spencer SteerCIN · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Elly De La CruzCIN · SS
    SPRINT2872

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.7%

ensemble · CIN favored

  • Elo Static

    45.4%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    41.1%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    43.6%

    P(NYM win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.75 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.