Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers: Final Score & Box Score — Jun 29, 2025

FINAL+2SEA

SEA

43-40

TEX

41-43

Globe Life Field · Arlington, Texas

31,126 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.0%

ensemble · TEX favored

Elo Static
53.1%
P(TEX win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
52.8%
P(TEX win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
52.5%
P(TEX win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.25 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TEX vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 117 high confidence

Strikeouts

Logan GilbertSEA
6.7± 2.0high
Nathan EovaldiTEX
6.7± 2.7high
Jacob deGromTEX
6.5± 2.1high

Hits

Cole YoungSEA
1.3± 1.2high
Ezequiel DuranTEX
1.2± 1.3high
Jhonny PeredaSEA
1.1± 0.7medium

Total bases

Ezequiel DuranTEX
2.2± 2.8high
Cole YoungSEA
2.0± 1.7high
Randy ArozarenaSEA
2.0± 2.5high

RBIs

Ezequiel DuranTEX
0.8± 1.3high
Cal RaleighSEA
0.7± 1.0high
Dominic CanzoneSEA
0.6± 1.5high

Earned runs

Bryan WooSEA
3.2± 2.4high
Nathan EovaldiTEX
3.0± 1.7high
George KirbySEA
2.6± 2.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

SEA

league avg

TEX

.687

OPS

.720

▶

.719

.310

OBP

.318

▶

.318

3.98

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.10

3.78

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.31

1.19

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.29

8.7

K / 9

8.5

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SEA wins

SEA 6 · TEX 4 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TEX +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	R
SEA	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	0	3	6
TEX	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	1	4

Final play

“End of the 12th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J.P. CrawfordSS	.277	5	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. RodriguezCF	.259	6	1	3	0	0	0	1
C. RaleighC	.275	4	0	1	0	0	2	0
L. RaleyRF	.227	4	1	0	0	0	1	1
R. ArozarenaLF	.241	5	3	2	0	0	1	1
D. CanzoneDH	.259	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. GarverC	.227	6	1	3	4	1	0	3
C. Young2B	.235	5	0	1	0	0	1	1
B. Williamson2B	.254	6	0	1	0	0	0	2
D. Solano1B	.258	3	0	1	2	0	0	1
Team		47	6	13	6	1	5	12

Player

.277

.259

.275

.227

.241

.259

.227

.235

.254

.258

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. CastilloSP	6.0	7	1	1	2	4	106
C. LeguminaRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	2	30
E. BazardoRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	23
C. VargasRP	1.0	1	2	1	0	0	12
T. ThorntonRP	2.0	0	1	0	2	2	22
Team	12.0	9	4	2	4	9	193

Player

L. CastilloSP

6.0

106

2.0

1.0

1.0

2.0

Team

12.0

193

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Smith2B	.281	5	0	2	0	0	1	0
C. SeagerSS	.244	4	1	1	3	1	1	0
M. Semien2B	.229	6	0	1	0	0	0	1
A. GarciaRF	.222	5	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. HeimC	.222	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. CarterCF	.283	4	1	3	0	0	1	0
J. Jung3B	.241	5	0	1	1	0	0	3
A. OsunaLF	.167	4	0	1	0	0	1	1
K. HigashiokaC	.212	5	2	0	0	0	0	2
Team		42	4	9	4	1	4	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. LeiterSP	6.0	7	1	1	0	7	88
J. LatzRP	2.1	1	0	0	1	4	39
L. JacksonRP	1.2	3	2	1	3	1	20
C. WinnRP	2.0	2	3	2	1	0	20
Team	12.0	13	6	4	5	12	167

Team

SEA

TEX

3 sub-models, blended.

TEX vs SEA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TEX vs SEA.

3 sub-models, blended.