Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers: Final Score & Box Score — Jun 29, 2025

FINAL+3DET

MIN

40-44

DET

53-32

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan

40,718 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.8%

ensemble · DET favored

Elo Static
61.2%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
65.0%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
63.2%
P(DET win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.54 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

DET vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 104 high confidence

Strikeouts

Taj BradleyMIN
6.6± 2.9high
Troy MeltonDET
5.7± 2.4low
Joe RyanMIN
5.7± 2.6high

Hits

Max ClarkDET
1.4± 1.5low
Dillon DinglerDET
1.2± 0.8high
Royce LewisMIN
1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

Max ClarkDET
2.4± 3.3low
Eduardo ValenciaDET
2.3± 4.4low
Dillon DinglerDET
2.1± 2.0high

RBIs

Eduardo ValenciaDET
0.9± 2.3low
Gleyber TorresDET
0.9± 1.7high
Dillon DinglerDET
0.8± 1.4high

Earned runs

Dean KremerMIN
3.4± 3.4low
Connor PrielippMIN
3.1± 1.7medium
Bailey OberMIN
2.8± 2.5medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIN

league avg

DET

.722

OPS

.719

▶

.732

.317

OBP

.318

.320

4.65

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.57

4.63

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.53

1.38

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.21

8.4

K / 9

8.5

8.4

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

MIN 0 · DET 3 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked DET +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIN	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
DET	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	3

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BuxtonCF	.281	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
R. JeffersC	.236	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. CorreaSS	.258	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
W. Castro2B	.267	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. France1B	.263	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
H. BaderCF	.249	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
B. Lee3B	.277	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. Bride3B	.208	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. VazquezC	.171	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
T. LarnachLF	.253	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. WallnerRF	.203	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		28	0	2	0	0	1	14

Player

.281

.236

.258

.267

.263

.249

.277

.208

.171

.253

.203

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. PaddackSP	4.2	6	3	3	0	3	91
D. CoulombeRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. StewartRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	2	14
J. TopaRP	2.0	2	0	0	1	3	30
Team	8.0	10	3	3	1	8	136

Player

4.2

0.1

1.0

2.0

Team

8.0

136

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. Keith3B	.247	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
G. Torres2B	.284	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
K. CarpenterRF	.257	3	1	2	2	1	0	0
R. GreeneLF	.296	4	1	1	1	1	0	0
S. Torkelson1B	.230	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
Z. McKinstry2B	.283	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. DinglerC	.272	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
P. MeadowsCF	.187	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
J. BaezSS	.285	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
W. PerezRF	.286	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		34	3	10	3	2	1	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. SkubalSP	7.0	1	0	0	1	13	93
T. KahnleRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	13
W. VestRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	8
Team	9.0	2	0	0	1	14	114

Team

MIN

DET

—

3 sub-models, blended.

DET vs MIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

DET vs MIN.

3 sub-models, blended.