New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Box Score — Jun 29, 2025

FINAL+11PIT

NYM

48-37

112

PIT

35-50

PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

24,898 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

47.8%

ensemble · NYM favored

Elo Static
47.9%
P(PIT win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
50.7%
P(PIT win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
47.7%
P(PIT win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.36 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PIT vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

116

projections · 96 high confidence

Strikeouts

Paul SkenesPIT
7.1± 2.1high
Nolan McLeanNYM
7.0± 1.7high
Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.1± 2.2high

Hits

Brandon LowePIT
1.2± 1.1high
Bo BichetteNYM
1.1± 1.1high
Carson BengeNYM
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Brandon LowePIT
2.1± 2.1high
Francisco LindorNYM
2.0± 3.5high
Carson BengeNYM
1.8± 1.7high

RBIs

Francisco LindorNYM
0.7± 1.9high
Brandon LowePIT
0.6± 0.8high
Luis TorrensNYM
0.5± 1.3high

Earned runs

Braxton AshcraftPIT
3.0± 2.4high
Paul SkenesPIT
2.9± 1.9high
Kodai SengaNYM
2.8± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYM

league avg

PIT

.692

OPS

.719

▶

.745

.305

OBP

.318

▶

.333

4.16

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.03

4.09

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.31

1.30

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.32

9.1

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.4

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

NYM 1 · PIT 12 (by 11)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked NYM +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
NYM	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
PIT	5	1	0	0	2	0	2	2	12

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. LindorSS	.258	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. NimmoRF	.255	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. SotoLF	.258	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
P. Alonso1B	.291	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. McNeil2B	.255	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
M. Vientos1B	.220	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. Baty3B	.228	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. TorrensC	.222	3	1	2	1	1	0	1
R. MauricioSS	.224	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
T. TaylorLF	.223	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		33	1	7	1	1	1	8

Player

.258

.255

.258

.291

.255

.220

.228

.222

.224

.223

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. MontasSP	4.0	7	6	6	1	5	86
R. LoveladyRP	2.0	5	2	2	0	2	36
D. NunezRP	1.0	2	2	2	0	2	17
T. JankowskiCF	1.0	2	2	2	1	0	13
Team	8.0	16	12	12	2	9	152

Player

4.0

2.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

152

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. Frazier2B	.252	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
A. McCutchenDH	.266	3	1	1	1	0	1	2
B. ReynoldsLF	.239	4	2	2	1	1	0	0
S. Horwitz1B	.250	4	0	0	1	0	0	0
K. Hayes3B	.246	5	3	3	2	0	0	0
O. CruzCF	.210	4	2	2	4	2	0	2
T. PhamLF	.230	4	1	2	2	1	0	1
J. TrioloSS	.167	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
H. DavisC	.207	4	2	4	0	0	0	0
A. CanarioLF	.222	0	0	0	1	0	1	0
Team		36	12	16	12	4	2	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BurrowsSP	4.1	4	1	1	1	5	67
G. CabreraRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	19
C. MlodzinskiRP	3.2	2	0	0	0	2	54
Team	9.0	7	1	1	1	8	140

Team

NYM

PIT

—

3 sub-models, blended.

PIT vs NYM.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

PIT vs NYM.

3 sub-models, blended.