Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Box Score — Jun 29, 2025

FINAL+1PHI

PHI

49-35

ATL

38-45

Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia

35,792 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

44.4%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
47.4%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
45.9%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
46.6%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.61 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ATL vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

133

projections · 117 high confidence

Strikeouts

Zack WheelerPHI
7.5± 3.7medium
Jesus LuzardoPHI
7.4± 3.3high
Chris SaleATL
7.1± 2.4high

Hits

Luis ArraezPHI
1.5± 1.3high
Trea TurnerPHI
1.3± 1.1high
Drake BaldwinATL
1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

Matt OlsonATL
2.3± 2.2high
Trea TurnerPHI
2.1± 2.1high
Bryce HarperPHI
2.0± 1.6high

RBIs

Dominic SmithATL
0.7± 1.1high
Alec BohmPHI
0.7± 1.2high
Bryan De La CruzPHI
0.7± 1.4low

Earned runs

Andrew PainterPHI
3.8± 2.6medium
Bryce ElderATL
3.1± 2.3high
Aaron NolaPHI
3.1± 1.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PHI

league avg

ATL

.706

OPS

.720

▶

.733

.305

OBP

.318

▶

.315

4.39

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.89

4.17

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.66

1.30

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.24

9.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

PHI 2 · ATL 1 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PHI +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
PHI	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	2
ATL	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. TurnerSS	.296	3	0	0	1	0	0	1
K. SchwarberDH	.252	3	0	2	0	0	1	0
A. Bohm3B	.279	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
N. CastellanosRF	.282	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
M. KeplerLF	.207	2	0	0	0	0	2	0
J.T. RealmutoC	.240	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Stott2B	.244	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
O. KempLF	.246	4	1	1	1	0	0	1
B. MarshLF	.256	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	2	7	2	0	3	6

Player

.296

.252

.279

.282

.207

.240

.244

.246

.256

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. SuarezSP	7.0	4	1	1	1	8	96
O. KerkeringRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	3	17
M. StrahmRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	17
Team	9.0	6	1	1	2	11	130

Player

R. SuarezSP

7.0

O. KerkeringRP

1.0

M. StrahmRP

1.0

Team

9.0

130

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. Acuna Jr.RF	.361	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
M. Olson1B	.261	4	0	2	0	0	0	2
M. OzunaDH	.247	4	0	0	0	0	0	4
A. Riley3B	.269	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
O. Albies2B	.223	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
S. MurphyC	.226	4	1	1	1	1	0	0
E. WhiteRF	.243	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
S. FairchildCF	.200	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. AllenSS	.242	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
D. BaldwinC	.280	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. WilliamsSS	.143	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	1	6	1	1	2	11

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. StriderSP	7.0	5	2	2	3	4	95
D. LeeRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	13
R. IglesiasRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	11
Team	9.0	7	2	2	3	6	119

Team

PHI

ATL

3 sub-models, blended.

ATL vs PHI.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ATL vs PHI.

3 sub-models, blended.