Miami Marlins vs Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Box Score — Jun 29, 2025

FINAL+2MIA

MIA

37-45

ARI

41-42

Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona

30,653 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.3%

ensemble · ARI favored

Elo Static
54.8%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
56.0%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
55.3%
P(ARI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.49 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ARI vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 110 high confidence

Strikeouts

Eury PerezMIA
5.9± 3.2medium
Sandy AlcantaraMIA
5.4± 1.9high
Janson JunkMIA
4.3± 1.4medium

Hits

James McCannARI
1.6± 1.1high
Geraldo PerdomoARI
1.2± 1.2high
Ryan WaldschmidtARI
1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

James McCannARI
2.6± 2.4high
Kyle StowersMIA
2.2± 2.3high
Geraldo PerdomoARI
1.8± 2.1high

RBIs

James McCannARI
1.2± 1.3high
Tyler LocklearARI
0.7± 1.4low
Owen CaissieMIA
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Merrill KellyARI
2.9± 2.0high
Janson JunkMIA
2.8± 3.5medium
Mitch BrattARI
2.4± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIA

league avg

ARI

.731

OPS

◀

.720

.706

.325

OBP

◀

.318

.314

4.37

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.54

3.99

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.20

1.24

WHIP

◀

1.30

8.5

K / 9

◀

8.5

6.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

MIA 6 · ARI 4 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ARI +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIA	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	0	6
ARI	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	4

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. LopezSS	.260	4	1	1	2	0	1	0
A. RamirezC	.255	3	2	1	0	0	2	2
H. HernandezLF	.333	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
E. Wagaman1B	.251	5	0	2	1	0	0	1
D. MyersCF	.298	3	1	0	0	0	2	0
C. Norby1B	.243	4	0	0	0	0	1	2
N. FortesC	.235	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Winkler2B	.091	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Sanoja3B	.242	2	1	1	0	0	2	0
K. Stowers1B	.279	2	0	1	3	0	0	1
J. SanchezRF	.243	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
L. HicksC	.277	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
Team		33	6	6	6	0	10	10

Player

.260

.255

.333

.251

.298

.243

.235

.091

.242

.279

.243

.277

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. QuantrillRP	5.0	3	2	2	1	5	87
L. BacharRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	3	20
C. FaucherRP	1.0	3	2	2	1	2	27
R. HenriquezRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13
Team	9.0	6	4	4	2	11	147

Player

5.0

2.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

147

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. PerdomoSS	.262	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
K. Marte2B	.305	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
P. Smith1B	.265	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
E. SuarezDH	.257	4	0	2	1	0	0	2
L. Gurriel Jr.LF	.250	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. McCarthyCF	.121	4	0	1	1	0	0	2
R. GrichukDH	.238	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. ThomasCF	.239	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. HerreraC	.192	3	1	1	0	0	1	1
Team		34	4	6	3	1	2	11

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. RodriguezSP	5.1	4	1	1	3	6	108
R. ThompsonRP	1.0	0	0	0	3	1	29
K. BackhusRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	9
J. BeeksRP	0.2	2	5	5	4	2	30
J. CurtissRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	6
Team	9.0	6	6	6	10	10	182

Team

MIA

ARI

3 sub-models, blended.

ARI vs MIA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ARI vs MIA.

3 sub-models, blended.