San Diego Padres vs Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Box Score — Jun 29, 2025

FINAL+1CIN

45-38

CIN

44-40

Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio

23,510 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.8%

ensemble · CIN favored

Elo Static
54.9%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
55.1%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
54.4%
P(CIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.30 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CIN vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 105 high confidence

Strikeouts

Hunter GreeneCIN
6.6± 4.7low
Chase BurnsCIN
6.5± 2.5high
Brady SingerCIN
5.1± 1.1high

Hits

Jackson MerrillSD
1.4± 1.1high
Ty FranceSD
1.2± 1.1high
Elly De La CruzCIN
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Jackson MerrillSD
2.2± 1.9high
Jose TrevinoCIN
2.0± 3.2high
Elly De La CruzCIN
1.9± 2.1high

RBIs

Sal StewartCIN
1.0± 1.4high
Manny MachadoSD
0.8± 1.4high
Jackson MerrillSD
0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

Hunter GreeneCIN
4.2± 4.1low
Walker BuehlerSD
3.0± 2.8high
Rhett LowderCIN
2.7± 3.0medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

CIN

.696

OPS

.720

▶

.707

.312

OBP

.318

.310

4.23

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.17

4.15

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.43

1.32

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.41

8.3

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CIN wins

SD 2 · CIN 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CIN +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SD	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	2
CIN	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	3

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Team pages

San Diego PadresCincinnati Reds

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. Arraez2B	.283	3	0	1	0	0	2	0
M. Machado3B	.293	4	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. MerrillCF	.294	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
F. Tatis Jr.RF	.258	3	1	1	0	0	2	1
X. BogaertsSS	.251	4	1	3	1	1	0	0
G. Sheets1B	.268	4	0	2	0	0	1	0
J. Iglesias2B	.226	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
J. Cronenworth2B	.238	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. DiazC	.213	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
T. Wade2B	.212	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. JohnsonRF	.417	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		34	2	8	2	1	6	5

Player

.283

.293

.294

.258

.251

.268

.226

.238

.213

.212

.417

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. KolekSP	5.2	3	1	1	1	5	71
A. MorejonRP	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	2
J. EstradaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13
J. AdamRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	14
R. SuarezRP	0.1	4	2	2	1	0	26
Team	8.1	9	3	3	2	8	126

Player

5.2

0.1

1.0

1.0

0.1

Team

8.1

126

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. FriedlCF	.284	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. McLain2B	.206	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
E. De La CruzSS	.280	4	1	2	1	0	0	1
A. HaysLF	.289	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. LuxLF	.272	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
S. Steer1B	.254	3	0	2	1	0	1	1
J. TrevinoC	.290	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
W. BensonRF	.233	4	1	3	1	0	0	1
C. Encarnacion-Strand3B	.193	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	3	9	3	0	2	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. LodoloSP	5.1	7	1	1	2	5	95
S. BarlowRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	0	16
L. RichardsonRP	0.1	1	1	1	2	0	12
T. SantillanRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	10
T. RogersRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	18
E. PaganRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	16
Team	9.0	8	2	2	6	5	167

Team

CIN

3 sub-models, blended.

CIN vs SD.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CIN vs SD.

3 sub-models, blended.