Chicago Cubs vs Houston Astros: Final Score & Box Score — Jun 29, 2025

FINAL+2HOU

CHC

49-35

HOU

50-34

Daikin Park · Houston, Texas

37,319 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.0%

ensemble · HOU favored

Elo Static
53.8%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
53.9%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
53.9%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.05 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

HOU vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 107 high confidence

Strikeouts

Peter LambertHOU
5.9± 2.3medium
Hunter BrownHOU
5.5± 2.8low
Kevin GausmanCHC
5.4± 2.3high

Hits

Jeremy PenaHOU
1.5± 1.0high
Nico HoernerCHC
1.3± 1.4high
Alex BregmanCHC
1.2± 1.3high

Total bases

Jeremy PenaHOU
2.8± 2.4high
Alex BregmanCHC
2.1± 2.7high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
2.1± 2.3high

RBIs

Seiya SuzukiCHC
0.9± 0.9high
Nico HoernerCHC
0.8± 1.3high
Tyrone TaylorCHC
0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

Ronel BlancoHOU
4.0± 1.4low
Kevin GausmanCHC
3.1± 2.1high
David PetersonCHC
2.9± 3.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CHC

league avg

HOU

.754

OPS

◀

.720

.738

.339

OBP

◀

.318

.322

5.13

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.66

4.06

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.61

1.25

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.36

7.8

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

HOU wins

CHC 0 · HOU 2 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked HOU +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CHC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
HOU	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. HappLF	.240	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
K. TuckerRF	.291	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
S. SuzukiRF	.258	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
D. SwansonSS	.245	2	0	0	0	0	2	1
P. Crow-ArmstrongCF	.262	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. KellyC	.259	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
N. Hoerner2B	.293	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Turner1B	.210	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. Berti3B	.209	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. Busch1B	.273	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
V. BrujanSS	.156	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		32	0	5	0	0	2	11

Player

.240

.291

.258

.245

.262

.259

.293

.210

.209

.273

.156

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. TaillonSP	4.2	5	2	2	1	4	107
R. BrasierRP	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	18
R. PresslyRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	11
B. KellerRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	14
Team	8.0	7	2	2	1	6	150

Player

J. TaillonSP

4.2

107

R. BrasierRP

1.1

R. PresslyRP

1.0

B. KellerRP

1.0

Team

8.0

150

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. Paredes3B	.254	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. MeyersCF	.306	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Altuve2B	.260	4	1	1	2	1	0	2
C. SmithRF	.276	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
Y. DiazC	.242	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. Walker1B	.213	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. HummelLF	.231	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
M. DubonLF	.239	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
L. Guillorme3B	.150	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
Team		32	2	7	2	1	1	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. ValdezSP	6.0	5	0	0	2	6	92
B. AbreuRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	4	23
J. HaderRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	11
Team	9.0	5	0	0	2	11	126

Team

CHC

HOU

—

3 sub-models, blended.

HOU vs CHC.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

HOU vs CHC.

3 sub-models, blended.