St. Louis Cardinals vs Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Box Score — Jun 29, 2025

FINAL+7STL

STL

47-38

CLE

40-42

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio

27,935 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

45.1%

ensemble · STL favored

Elo Static
46.9%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
46.8%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
47.3%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.22 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CLE vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 116 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
8.1± 3.0high
Joey CantilloCLE
6.1± 2.2high
Parker MessickCLE
5.3± 3.0high

Hits

Steven KwanCLE
1.3± 1.0high
Nathaniel LoweCLE
1.2± 1.2high
Alec BurlesonSTL
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Alec BurlesonSTL
2.1± 3.6high
Nathaniel LoweCLE
1.7± 1.6high
Steven KwanCLE
1.5± 1.1high

RBIs

Alec BurlesonSTL
0.7± 1.9high
Chase DeLauterCLE
0.5± 1.0high
Jo AdellCLE
0.5± 0.8high

Earned runs

Matthew LiberatoreSTL
2.9± 2.1high
Gavin WilliamsCLE
2.5± 2.1high
Slade CecconiCLE
2.4± 1.6high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

STL

league avg

CLE

.694

OPS

◀

.720

.680

.315

OBP

◀

.318

.311

4.35

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.93

4.15

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.75

1.34

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.26

7.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.4

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

STL wins

STL 7 · CLE 0 (by 7)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked STL +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
STL	3	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	7
CLE	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. Donovan3B	.297	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. WinnSS	.263	4	1	2	0	0	1	1
W. Contreras1B	.248	5	1	1	0	0	0	2
N. Arenado3B	.249	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
N. Gorman3B	.224	3	2	1	3	1	1	1
T. SaggeseLF	.271	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
P. PagesC	.221	2	1	1	1	0	1	1
G. Hampson2B	.200	4	0	1	1	0	0	2
V. Scott IICF	.244	4	1	2	2	1	0	1
J. FerminLF	1.000	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
Team		35	7	11	7	2	3	10

Player

.297

.263

.248

.249

.224

.271

.221

.200

.244

1.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. LiberatoreSP	6.0	3	0	0	5	5	96
J. RomeroRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	12
R. O'BrienRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	26
J. KingRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	22
Team	9.0	3	0	0	8	11	156

Player

6.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

156

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. KwanLF	.295	5	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. FryRF	.140	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. Ramirez3B	.309	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
C. Santana1B	.232	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
L. ThomasCF	.168	2	0	0	0	0	2	1
A. MartinezLF	.234	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
G. Arias3B	.231	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. RodriguezRF	.176	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
A. HedgesC	.113	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
K. Manzardo1B	.222	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. SchneemannCF	.224	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
Team		29	0	3	0	0	8	11

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. AllenRP	6.0	6	3	3	2	6	98
H. GaddisRP	1.0	4	3	3	0	1	20
T. HerrinRP	0.2	0	1	1	1	1	16
M. FestaRP	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	8
E. ClaseRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	9
Team	9.0	11	7	7	3	10	151

Team

STL

CLE

3 sub-models, blended.

CLE vs STL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CLE vs STL.

3 sub-models, blended.