Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Box Score — Jun 29, 2025

FINAL+2TOR

TOR

45-38

BOS

41-44

Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts

35,214 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.6%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
50.3%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
48.2%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
51.6%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.40 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

BOS vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

133

projections · 108 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.5± 2.7high
Payton TolleBOS
6.0± 2.4medium
Ranger SuarezBOS
5.9± 2.8medium

Hits

Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.4± 0.8high
George SpringerTOR
1.2± 0.5high
Caleb DurbinBOS
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
2.7± 2.5high
Wilyer AbreuBOS
2.0± 2.7high
George SpringerTOR
2.0± 1.5high

RBIs

Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.1± 1.3high
George SpringerTOR
0.7± 1.3high
Andruw MonasterioBOS
0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

Jameson TaillonTOR
3.5± 2.7medium
Max ScherzerTOR
3.4± 3.9low
Shane BieberTOR
2.6± 3.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

TOR

league avg

BOS

.680

OPS

.720

▶

.717

.303

OBP

.318

▶

.317

3.89

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.36

4.08

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.52

1.32

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.23

9.0

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

TOR 5 · BOS 3 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked BOS +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TOR	2	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	0	5
BOS	0	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. Bichette3B	.272	5	1	1	0	0	0	1
A. BargerRF	.260	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
V. Guerrero Jr.1B	.280	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
G. SpringerDH	.265	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
N. LukesRF	.257	4	1	2	1	0	0	0
E. Clement2B	.304	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
A. GimenezSS	.200	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
J. ClaseLF	.204	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
T. HeinemanC	.361	3	0	0	1	0	1	2
M. StrawRF	.259	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		32	5	6	5	2	4	7

Player

.272

.260

.280

.265

.257

.304

.200

.204

.361

.259

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. LauerSP	4.1	7	3	3	0	4	85
Y. RodriguezRP	1.2	1	0	0	0	1	23
B. LittleRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	9
N. SandlinRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	16
J. HoffmanRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	14
Team	9.0	8	3	3	1	9	147

Player

4.1

1.2

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

147

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. GonzalezDH	.304	5	0	1	1	0	0	1
R. AnthonyLF	.193	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
R. RefsnyderDH	.278	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. NarvaezC	.272	3	1	1	1	1	1	0
T. StorySS	.234	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
J. DuranLF	.252	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. RafaelaCF	.253	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
N. EatonOF	.300	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Sogard3B	.254	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
W. AbreuRF	.253	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Toro1B	.285	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		35	3	8	3	1	1	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
W. BuehlerSP	4.0	4	4	4	3	3	72
Z. KellyRP	1.0	2	1	1	1	1	28
B. BernardinoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	4
G. WhitlockRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	10
G. WeissertRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	14
A. ChapmanRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	12
Team	9.0	6	5	5	4	7	140

Team

TOR

BOS

3 sub-models, blended.

BOS vs TOR.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

BOS vs TOR.

3 sub-models, blended.