Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Box Score — Jun 29, 2025

FINAL+4BAL

47-37

BAL

36-47

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland

19,226 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

37.8%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
43.0%
P(BAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
44.0%
P(BAL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
41.4%
P(BAL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.07 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

BAL vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 107 high confidence

Strikeouts

Drew RasmussenTB
5.8± 3.9high
Kyle BradishBAL
5.2± 3.0high
Griffin JaxTB
5.2± 2.3high

Hits

Chandler SimpsonTB
1.3± 1.0high
Nick FortesTB
1.2± 1.3high
Jonathan ArandaTB
1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

Junior CamineroTB
2.2± 2.7high
Pete AlonsoBAL
1.8± 2.0high
Nick FortesTB
1.8± 2.2high

RBIs

Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL
0.9± 1.9low
Junior CamineroTB
0.7± 0.9high
Nick FortesTB
0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

Freddy PeraltaTB
3.7± 3.4high
Kyle BradishBAL
2.5± 1.9high
Shane BazBAL
2.3± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

BAL

.734

OPS

◀

.720

.710

.330

OBP

◀

.318

.319

4.46

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.51

3.77

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.23

1.15

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.35

8.2

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

TB 1 · BAL 5 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TB +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TB	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1
BAL	0	1	0	0	2	2	0	0	5

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Team pages

Tampa Bay RaysBaltimore Orioles

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. LoweLF	.269	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
B. Lowe2B	.275	3	1	1	1	1	1	1
Y. DiazDH	.291	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
J. Aranda1B	.325	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. MangumCF	.316	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. Mead3B	.236	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
T. WallsSS	.211	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. SimpsonLF	.290	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
D. JansenC	.199	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		31	1	5	1	1	2	10

Player

.269

.275

.291

.325

.316

.236

.211

.290

.199

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. BradleySP	5.1	8	5	5	1	2	95
K. KellyRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	24
E. OrzeRP	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	9
Team	8.0	10	5	5	1	4	128

Player

T. BradleySP

5.1

K. KellyRP

1.0

E. OrzeRP

1.2

Team

8.0

128

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Holliday2B	.259	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
R. Urias3B	.261	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
G. HendersonSS	.275	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. O'HearnRF	.293	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
R. LaureanoLF	.273	4	2	2	0	0	0	1
C. CowserCF	.233	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
G. SanchezC	.250	4	1	2	1	0	0	0
C. MullinsCF	.213	2	1	1	1	0	0	0
C. Mayo3B	.217	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
Team		31	5	10	5	0	1	4

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. KremerSP	7.0	3	0	0	1	6	93
K. AkinRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16
F. BautistaRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	3	24
Team	9.0	5	1	1	2	10	133

Team

BAL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

BAL vs TB.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

BAL vs TB.

3 sub-models, blended.