Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CGY at COL?

The model favors CGY, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2COL

CGY

32-37-9

COL

52-16-10

NHLThu, Apr 9FinalSeriesCOL leads series 2-0VegasCOL -340

CGY · top performer

Matt Coronato

RW · #27

1Points

—

SOG

COL · top performer

Nathan MacKinnon

C · #29

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BacklundC · #11	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	17:16
J. BeecherC · #18	0	0	0	2	1	3	2	12:50
M. CoronatoRW · #27	0	1	0	5	0	1	4	19:15
J. FarabeeLW · #86	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	18:31
M. FrostC · #16	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	19:11
M. GridinRW · #92	0	1	0	2	1	0	0	18:48
T. GrossC · #39	1	0	-1	1	2	1	0	13:15
A. KlapkaRW · #43	0	0	-1	1	4	3	0	9:25
V. OlofssonLW · #95	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	12:07
Y. SharangovichC · #17	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:39
A. SunievLW · #36	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	11:56
C. ZaryC · #47	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	14:18

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
H. BrzustewiczD · #48	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	19:27
Y. KuznetsovD · #37	0	0	0	2	2	2	0	20:31
O. MaattaD · #3	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	22:19
B. PachalD · #94	0	0	-1	1	2	1	0	11:59
Z. ParekhD · #19	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	17:57
Z. WhitecloudD · #28	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	23:31

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. WolfG · #32	40	2	38	.950	57:38

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. ColtonC · #20	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	8:53
J. DruryC · #18	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:00
P. KellyC · #17	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	13:40
J. KivirantaLW · #94	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	8:58
G. LandeskogLW · #92	1	0	-1	3	2	0	0	14:21
A. LehkonenLW · #62	0	0	1	2	1	1	0	18:49
N. MacKinnonC · #29	1	2	1	6	1	0	2	22:23
M. NecasC · #88	1	2	2	4	1	1	0	19:59
B. NelsonC · #11	0	0	-1	3	0	1	0	16:51
V. NichushkinRW · #13	0	0	1	3	0	1	0	16:01
L. O'ConnorRW · #25	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	12:04
N. RoyC · #10	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	11:19

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. BlankenburgD · #37	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	14:37
B. BurnsD · #84	0	1	0	3	0	0	0	18:34
B. KulakD · #27	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	21:48
S. MalinskiD · #70	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	20:32
J. MansonD · #42	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	19:45
D. ToewsD · #7	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	22:26

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BlackwoodG · #39	29	1	28	.966	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

CGY

Away

Stat

COL

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

33.3

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

COL leads series 2-0

Mar 31

CGY2@

COL9

Apr 10

CGY1@

COL3today

Apr 15

COL3@

CGY1

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CGY+27027%

COL-34077%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 59 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

COL beat CGY 3-1. N. MacKinnon led the way — 1 G · 2 A · 6 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
CGY	0	0	1	1
COL	1	1	1	3

Period scoring

CGY won 0 · COL won 2

CGY

COL

Play-by-play · 310 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
CGY 1·COL 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CGY 1·COL 3
3rd·19:05
Mikael Backlund faceoff won against Jack Drury
·
CGY 1·COL 3
3rd·19:05
Nathan MacKinnon Goal (52) Backhand, assists: Martin Necas (60)
·
CGY 1·COL 3
3rd·18:23
Gabriel Landeskog hit Morgan Frost
·
CGY 1·COL 2
3rd·18:12
Morgan Frost faceoff won against Nathan MacKinnon
·
CGY 1·COL 2
3rd·18:12
Off-side
CGY 1·COL 2
3rd·18:12
Challenge Hm - off-side - no goal
CGY 1·COL 2
3rd·17:41
Valeri Nichushkin Wrist Shot Wide Left
CGY 1·COL 2
3rd·17:26
Tyson Gross faceoff won against Jack Drury
·
CGY 1·COL 2
3rd·17:26
Puck in Netting
CGY 1·COL 2
3rd·17:08
Jack Drury faceoff won against Mikael Backlund
·
CGY 1·COL 2
3rd·17:08
Tyson Gross Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Matvei Gridin (13), Matt Coronato (25)
· ·
CGY 1·COL 2
3rd·17:06
Matvei Gridin Snap Shot saved by Mackenzie Blackwood
·
CGY 0·COL 2
3rd·17:03
Matt Coronato Slap Shot saved by Mackenzie Blackwood
·
CGY 0·COL 2
3rd·16:50
Tyson Gross faceoff won against Brock Nelson
·
CGY 0·COL 2
3rd·16:50
Off-side
CGY 0·COL 2
3rd·16:14
Gabriel Landeskog faceoff won against Matt Coronato
·
CGY 0·COL 2
3rd·16:14
Puck in Netting
CGY 0·COL 2
3rd·16:12
Aydar Suniev Slap Shot saved by Mackenzie Blackwood
·
CGY 0·COL 2
3rd·16:07
Aydar Suniev shot blocked by Brett Kulak
·
CGY 0·COL 2
3rd·14:16
Matvei Gridin shot blocked by Valeri Nichushkin
·
CGY 0·COL 2
3rd·14:13
Morgan Frost faceoff won against Brock Nelson
·
CGY 0·COL 2
3rd·14:13
TV Timeout
CGY 0·COL 2
3rd·14:13
Joel Kiviranta High-sticking against Zayne Parekh
·
CGY 0·COL 2
3rd·14:08
Giveaway by Zayne Parekh
CGY 0·COL 2
3rd·13:29
Giveaway by Devon Toews
CGY 0·COL 2
3rd·13:24
Nathan MacKinnon Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
CGY 0·COL 2
3rd·13:20
Sam Malinski shot blocked by Adam Klapka
·
CGY 0·COL 2
3rd·13:14
Artturi Lehkonen Snap Shot saved by Dustin Wolf
·
CGY 0·COL 2

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 6.5·CGY +270/COL -340

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

olorado Avalanche held off Calgary Flames, 3–1.

COL -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

71.3%

ensemble · COL favored

Elo Static
71.3%
P(COL win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
71.3%
P(COL win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
71.3%
P(COL win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+270

Close price

+270

Open no-vig

25.9%

Close no-vig

25.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CGY at COL?: The model favors CGY, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Calgary FlamesColorado Avalanche

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