NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2COL

CGY

32-37-9

COL

52-16-10

NHLThu, Apr 9FinalSeriesCOL leads series 2-0VegasCOL -340

Recap · NHL

olorado Avalanche held off Calgary Flames, 3–1.

COL -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CGY · top performer

Matt Coronato

RW · #27

1Points

—

SOG

COL · top performer

Nathan MacKinnon

C · #29

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	G	A	+/-	S	HT	BS	PIM	TOI
M. BacklundC · #11	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	17:16
J. BeecherC · #18	0	0	0	2	1	3	2	12:50
M. CoronatoRW · #27	0	1	0	5	0	1	4	19:15
J. FarabeeLW · #86	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	18:31
M. FrostC · #16	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	19:11
M. GridinRW · #92	0	1	0	2	1	0	0	18:48
T. GrossC · #39	1	0	-1	1	2	1	0	13:15
A. KlapkaRW · #43	0	0	-1	1	4	3	0	9:25
V. OlofssonLW · #95	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	12:07
Y. SharangovichC · #17	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:39
A. SunievLW · #36	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	11:56
C. ZaryC · #47	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	14:18

Defensemen

defenses box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	G	A	+/-	S	HT	BS	PIM	TOI
H. BrzustewiczD · #48	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	19:27
Y. KuznetsovD · #37	0	0	0	2	2	2	0	20:31
O. MaattaD · #3	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	22:19
B. PachalD · #94	0	0	-1	1	2	1	0	11:59
Z. ParekhD · #19	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	17:57
Z. WhitecloudD · #28	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	23:31

Goalies

goalies box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	SA	GA	SV	SV%	TOI
D. WolfG · #32	40	2	38	.950	57:38

Forwards

forwards box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	G	A	+/-	S	HT	BS	PIM	TOI
R. ColtonC · #20	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	8:53
J. DruryC · #18	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:00
P. KellyC · #17	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	13:40
J. KivirantaLW · #94	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	8:58
G. LandeskogLW · #92	1	0	-1	3	2	0	0	14:21
A. LehkonenLW · #62	0	0	1	2	1	1	0	18:49
N. MacKinnonC · #29	1	2	1	6	1	0	2	22:23
M. NecasC · #88	1	2	2	4	1	1	0	19:59
B. NelsonC · #11	0	0	-1	3	0	1	0	16:51
V. NichushkinRW · #13	0	0	1	3	0	1	0	16:01
L. O'ConnorRW · #25	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	12:04
N. RoyC · #10	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	11:19

Defensemen

defenses box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	G	A	+/-	S	HT	BS	PIM	TOI
N. BlankenburgD · #37	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	14:37
B. BurnsD · #84	0	1	0	3	0	0	0	18:34
B. KulakD · #27	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	21:48
S. MalinskiD · #70	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	20:32
J. MansonD · #42	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	19:45
D. ToewsD · #7	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	22:26

Goalies

goalies box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	SA	GA	SV	SV%	TOI
M. BlackwoodG · #39	29	1	28	.966	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

COL leads series 2-0

Mar 31

CGY2@

COL9

Apr 10

CGY1@

COL3today

Apr 15

COL3@

CGY1

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CGY+27027%

COL-34077%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 29 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

COL beat CGY 3-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
CGY	0	0	1	1
COL	1	1	1	3

Period scoring

CGY won 0 · COL won 2

CGY

COL

Play-by-play · 310 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
CGY 1·COL 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CGY 1·COL 3
3rd·19:05
Mikael Backlund faceoff won against Jack Drury
·
CGY 1·COL 3
3rd·19:05
Nathan MacKinnon Goal (52) Backhand, assists: Martin Necas (60)
·
CGY 1·COL 3
3rd·18:23
Gabriel Landeskog hit Morgan Frost
·
CGY 1·COL 2
3rd·18:12
Morgan Frost faceoff won against Nathan MacKinnon
·
CGY 1·COL 2
3rd·18:12
Off-side
CGY 1·COL 2
3rd·18:12
Challenge Hm - off-side - no goal
CGY 1·COL 2
3rd·17:41
Valeri Nichushkin Wrist Shot Wide Left
CGY 1·COL 2
3rd·17:26
Tyson Gross faceoff won against Jack Drury
·
CGY 1·COL 2
3rd·17:26
Puck in Netting
CGY 1·COL 2
3rd·17:08
Jack Drury faceoff won against Mikael Backlund
·
CGY 1·COL 2
3rd·17:08
Tyson Gross Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Matvei Gridin (13), Matt Coronato (25)
· ·
CGY 1·COL 2
3rd·17:06
Matvei Gridin Snap Shot saved by Mackenzie Blackwood
·
CGY 0·COL 2
3rd·17:03
Matt Coronato Slap Shot saved by Mackenzie Blackwood
·
CGY 0·COL 2
3rd·16:50
Tyson Gross faceoff won against Brock Nelson
·
CGY 0·COL 2
3rd·16:50
Off-side
CGY 0·COL 2
3rd·16:14
Gabriel Landeskog faceoff won against Matt Coronato
·
CGY 0·COL 2
3rd·16:14
Puck in Netting
CGY 0·COL 2
3rd·16:12
Aydar Suniev Slap Shot saved by Mackenzie Blackwood
·
CGY 0·COL 2
3rd·16:07
Aydar Suniev shot blocked by Brett Kulak
·
CGY 0·COL 2
3rd·14:16
Matvei Gridin shot blocked by Valeri Nichushkin
·
CGY 0·COL 2
3rd·14:13
Morgan Frost faceoff won against Brock Nelson
·
CGY 0·COL 2
3rd·14:13
TV Timeout
CGY 0·COL 2
3rd·14:13
Joel Kiviranta High-sticking against Zayne Parekh
·
CGY 0·COL 2
3rd·14:08
Giveaway by Zayne Parekh
CGY 0·COL 2
3rd·13:29
Giveaway by Devon Toews
CGY 0·COL 2
3rd·13:24
Nathan MacKinnon Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
CGY 0·COL 2
3rd·13:20
Sam Malinski shot blocked by Adam Klapka
·
CGY 0·COL 2
3rd·13:14
Artturi Lehkonen Snap Shot saved by Dustin Wolf
·
CGY 0·COL 2

Team stats

CGY

Away

Stat

COL

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

33.3

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 6.5·CGY +270/COL -340

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE

Ross ColtonCOL · C
SKATE MPH23.799+
Nathan MacKinnonCOL · C
BURSTS8799+
Martin NecasCOL · C
BURSTS7599
Gabriel LandeskogCOL · LW
SHOT MPH92.897
Yan KuznetsovCGY · D
SHOT MPH100.297

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.6%

ensemble · COL favored

Elo Static
71.3%
P(COL win)
67%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
71.3%
P(COL win)
16%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
71.3%
P(COL win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+270

Close price

+270

Open no-vig

25.9%

Close no-vig

25.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss