Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TB at MTL?

The model favors MTL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1MTL

48-25-6

MTL

47-22-10

NHLThu, Apr 9FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasTB -122

TB · top performer

Darren Raddysh

D · #43

1Points

—

SOG

MTL · top performer

Cole Caufield

RW · #13

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. BjorkstrandRW · #22	0	0	0	0	3	0	2	10:46
A. CirelliC · #71	0	0	0	1	3	2	2	20:28
Z. GirgensonsC · #28	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	12:25
G. GoncalvesC · #93	0	1	0	2	1	1	0	18:19
Y. GourdeC · #37	0	0	-1	1	6	0	4	14:05
J. GuentzelC · #59	0	0	-1	4	0	0	0	26:38
N. KucherovRW · #86	0	1	0	1	1	0	2	23:12
N. PaulLW · #20	0	0	-1	0	3	1	12	7:38
J. PelletierLW · #11	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	7:06
C. PerryRW · #10	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	13:17
B. PointC · #21	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	21:22

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. CarlileD · #67	0	0	0	0	0	1	17	5:02
E. CernakD · #81	0	0	-1	1	4	2	0	22:05
C. D'AstousD · #51	0	0	0	0	0	0	12	9:12
E. LillebergD · #78	0	0	-1	0	4	1	0	18:43
R. McDonaghD · #27	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	22:47
J.J. MoserD · #90	0	0	-1	0	2	0	2	20:41
D. RaddyshD · #43	1	0	1	5	0	1	14	13:59

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. VasilevskiyG · #88	21	2	19	.905	58:15

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AndersonRW · #17	0	0	-1	1	1	1	11	12:32
C. CaufieldRW · #13	1	0	2	5	1	0	0	17:56
K. DachC · #77	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	14:38
P. DanaultC · #24	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	12:40
I. DemidovRW · #93	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	19:14
J. EvansC · #71	0	0	0	1	1	0	12	12:29
O. KapanenC · #91	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	13:03
A. NewhookC · #15	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	18:56
J. SlafkovskyLW · #20	1	1	1	3	2	0	0	21:23
N. SuzukiC · #14	0	2	1	1	1	0	0	22:25
A. TexierLW · #85	0	0	0	1	1	0	12	9:03
J. VelenoC · #90	0	0	0	0	4	0	2	10:44

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. DobsonD · #53	0	0	0	2	4	1	0	22:55
A. EngstromD · #42	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	9:12
L. HutsonD · #48	0	0	1	1	1	2	0	29:17
M. MathesonD · #8	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	25:39
J. StrubleD · #47	0	0	0	0	5	3	12	11:09
A. XhekajD · #72	0	0	0	0	4	0	2	8:45

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DobesG · #75	18	1	17	.944	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

Away

Stat

MTL

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Playoff series

Apr 19

MTL4@

TB3

Apr 21

MTL2@

TB3

Apr 24

TB2@

MTL3

Apr 26

TB3@

MTL2

Apr 29

MTL3@

TB2

May 1

TB1@

MTL0

May 3

MTL2@

TB1

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TB-12255%

MTL+10250%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 61 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MTL beat TB 2-1. C. Caufield led the way — 1 G · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
TB	0	0	1	1
MTL	0	1	1	2

Period scoring

TB won 0 · MTL won 1

MTL

Play-by-play · 314 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
TB 1·MTL 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
TB 1·MTL 2
3rd·19:58
Nick Suzuki Backhand Wide Right
TB 1·MTL 2
3rd·19:48
Jake Evans faceoff won against Nick Paul
·
TB 1·MTL 2
3rd·19:48
Puck in Benches
TB 1·MTL 2
3rd·19:45
Anthony Cirelli faceoff won against Jake Evans
·
TB 1·MTL 2
3rd·19:45
Icing
TB 1·MTL 2
3rd·19:39
Darren Raddysh Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
TB 1·MTL 2
3rd·19:12
Jake Evans Backhand Wide Left
TB 1·MTL 2
3rd·18:59
Takeaway by Darren Raddysh
TB 1·MTL 2
3rd·18:56
Jake Evans faceoff won against Anthony Cirelli
·
TB 1·MTL 2
3rd·18:56
Timeout - Home
TB 1·MTL 2
3rd·18:56
Juraj Slafkovský Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (70)
·
TB 1·MTL 2
3rd·18:54
Giveaway by J.J. Moser
TB 1·MTL 1
3rd·18:40
Kirby Dach hit Ryan McDonagh
·
TB 1·MTL 1
3rd·18:25
Kirby Dach hit Ryan McDonagh
·
TB 1·MTL 1
3rd·18:09
Yanni Gourde faceoff won against Phillip Danault
·
TB 1·MTL 1
3rd·18:09
Darren Raddysh Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (85), Gage Goncalves (21)
· ·
TB 1·MTL 1
3rd·18:01
Charle-Edouard D'Astous Snap Shot Wide Left
·
TB 0·MTL 1
3rd·17:47
Jayden Struble hit Erik Cernak
·
TB 0·MTL 1
3rd·17:37
Jayden Struble hit Nick Paul
·
TB 0·MTL 1
3rd·17:31
Lane Hutson hit Gage Goncalves
·
TB 0·MTL 1
3rd·17:17
Gage Goncalves shot blocked by Jayden Struble
·
TB 0·MTL 1
3rd·17:00
Juraj Slafkovský Snap Shot Wide Right
·
TB 0·MTL 1
3rd·16:43
Nick Suzuki faceoff won against Anthony Cirelli
·
TB 0·MTL 1
3rd·16:43
Off-side
TB 0·MTL 1
3rd·16:06
Brayden Point faceoff won against Joseph Veleno
·
TB 0·MTL 1
3rd·16:06
Puck in Netting
TB 0·MTL 1
3rd·16:03
Nikita Kucherov Snap Shot High and Wide Right
·
TB 0·MTL 1
3rd·15:52
Darren Raddysh Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
TB 0·MTL 1

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 6.5·TB -122/MTL +102

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ontreal Canadiens held off Tampa Bay Lightning, 2–1.

MTL +1.5 cashed (TB lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Juraj Slafkovský · MTL21:360.9372.1%81.1%21:36 TOI · 0.93 iXG · 72.1% CF · 81.1% xGF
Jake Guentzel · TBL26:540.6537.5%41.6%26:54 TOI · 0.65 iXG · 37.5% CF · 41.6% xGF
Cole Caufield · MTL18:180.6277.8%82.6%18:18 TOI · 0.62 iXG · 77.8% CF · 82.6% xGF
Nick Suzuki · MTL22:240.4773.3%78.4%22:24 TOI · 0.47 iXG · 73.3% CF · 78.4% xGF
Corey Perry · TBL13:120.2770.0%74.3%13:12 TOI · 0.27 iXG · 70.0% CF · 74.3% xGF
Darren Raddysh · TOR14:120.2554.2%63.7%14:12 TOI · 0.25 iXG · 54.2% CF · 63.7% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Jakub Dobes · MTL17–1.944+0.8817–1 · .944 SV% · +0.88 GSAx
Andrei Vasilevskiy · TBL19–2.905+0.6819–2 · .905 SV% · +0.68 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.0%

ensemble · MTL favored

Elo Static
56.2%
P(MTL win)
46%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
56.2%
P(MTL win)
10%
weight
Xg Blend
55.8%
P(MTL win)
44%
weight

Disagreement

0.20 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

2 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+102

Close price

+102

Open no-vig

47.4%

Close no-vig

47.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TB at MTL?: The model favors MTL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

MTL vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

135

projections · 111 high confidence

Shots on goal

Nikita KucherovTB
3.5± 2.3high
Brandon HagelTB
3.2± 1.4high
Cole CaufieldMTL
2.8± 1.4high

Goals

Brandon HagelTB
0.6± 0.8high
Cole CaufieldMTL
0.5± 0.5high
Alex NewhookMTL
0.4± 0.7high

Points

Nikita KucherovTB
1.1± 0.9high
Brandon HagelTB
1.0± 0.9high
Jake GuentzelTB
1.0± 0.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Tampa Bay LightningMontreal Canadiens

Elsewhere in the NHL