NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1MTL

48-25-6

MTL

47-22-10

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Apr 9FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasTB -122

Recap · NHL

ontreal Canadiens held off Tampa Bay Lightning, 2–1.

MTL +1.5 cashed (TB lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TB · top performer

Gage Goncalves

C · #93

1Points

—

SOG

MTL · top performer

Juraj Slafkovsky

LW · #20

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

TB48-25-6

MTL47-22-10

TB48-25-6MTL47-22-10

48-25-6

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

MTL

47-22-10

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Playoff series

Apr 19

MTL4@

TB3

Apr 21

MTL2@

TB3

Apr 24

TB2@

MTL3

Apr 26

TB3@

MTL2

Apr 29

MTL3@

TB2

May 1

TB1@

MTL0

May 3

MTL2@

TB1

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TB-12255%

MTL+10250%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MTL beat TB 2-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
TB	0	0	1	1
MTL	0	1	1	2

Period scoring

TB won 0 · MTL won 1

MTL

Play-by-play · 314 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
TB 1·MTL 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
TB 1·MTL 2
3rd·19:58
Nick Suzuki Backhand Wide Right
TB 1·MTL 2
3rd·19:48
Jake Evans faceoff won against Nick Paul
·
TB 1·MTL 2
3rd·19:48
Puck in Benches
TB 1·MTL 2
3rd·19:45
Anthony Cirelli faceoff won against Jake Evans
·
TB 1·MTL 2
3rd·19:45
Icing
TB 1·MTL 2
3rd·19:39
Darren Raddysh Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
TB 1·MTL 2
3rd·19:12
Jake Evans Backhand Wide Left
TB 1·MTL 2
3rd·18:59
Takeaway by Darren Raddysh
TB 1·MTL 2
3rd·18:56
Jake Evans faceoff won against Anthony Cirelli
·
TB 1·MTL 2
3rd·18:56
Timeout - Home
TB 1·MTL 2
3rd·18:56
Juraj Slafkovský Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (70)
·
TB 1·MTL 2
3rd·18:54
Giveaway by J.J. Moser
TB 1·MTL 1
3rd·18:40
Kirby Dach hit Ryan McDonagh
·
TB 1·MTL 1
3rd·18:25
Kirby Dach hit Ryan McDonagh
·
TB 1·MTL 1
3rd·18:09
Yanni Gourde faceoff won against Phillip Danault
·
TB 1·MTL 1
3rd·18:09
Darren Raddysh Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (85), Gage Goncalves (21)
· ·
TB 1·MTL 1
3rd·18:01
Charle-Edouard D'Astous Snap Shot Wide Left
·
TB 0·MTL 1
3rd·17:47
Jayden Struble hit Erik Cernak
·
TB 0·MTL 1
3rd·17:37
Jayden Struble hit Nick Paul
·
TB 0·MTL 1
3rd·17:31
Lane Hutson hit Gage Goncalves
·
TB 0·MTL 1
3rd·17:17
Gage Goncalves shot blocked by Jayden Struble
·
TB 0·MTL 1
3rd·17:00
Juraj Slafkovský Snap Shot Wide Right
·
TB 0·MTL 1
3rd·16:43
Nick Suzuki faceoff won against Anthony Cirelli
·
TB 0·MTL 1
3rd·16:43
Off-side
TB 0·MTL 1
3rd·16:06
Brayden Point faceoff won against Joseph Veleno
·
TB 0·MTL 1
3rd·16:06
Puck in Netting
TB 0·MTL 1
3rd·16:03
Nikita Kucherov Snap Shot High and Wide Right
·
TB 0·MTL 1
3rd·15:52
Darren Raddysh Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
TB 0·MTL 1

Team stats

Away

Stat

MTL

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 6.5·TB -122/MTL +102

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 skaters with EDGE

Lane HutsonMTL · D
DIST MI71.899+
Josh AndersonMTL · RW
BURSTS7699+
Mike MathesonMTL · D
DIST MI62.999
Cole CaufieldMTL · RW
DIST MI56.699
Arber XhekajMTL · D
SHOT MPH98.598

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · MTL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MTL win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MTL win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MTL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+102

Close price

+102

Open no-vig

47.4%

Close no-vig

47.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

MTL vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

138

projections · 123 high confidence

Shots on goal

Nikita KucherovTB
3.5± 2.3high
Brandon HagelTB
3.2± 1.4high
Cole CaufieldMTL
2.8± 1.4high

Goals

Brandon HagelTB
0.6± 0.8high
Cole CaufieldMTL
0.5± 0.5high
Alex NewhookMTL
0.4± 0.7high

Points

Nikita KucherovTB
1.1± 0.9high
Brandon HagelTB
1.0± 0.9high
Jake GuentzelTB
1.0± 0.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands