
PHI
40-27-12

DET
41-29-9
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · NHL
etroit Red Wings held off Philadelphia Flyers, 6–3.
DET -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 3.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
PHI · top performer
Porter Martone
RW · #94
1
G
1
A
—
SOG
DET · top performer

Dylan Larkin
C · #71
3
G
1
A
—
SOG
NHL · Philadelphia Flyers at Detroit Red Wings · final
NHL · Box scoreEDGE


PHI
40-27-12
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
DET
41-29-9
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
12
PIM
16
Season series
DET wins series 2-1
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
DET -1.5
Total
5.5
Defensive · -3.0 vs avg
Moneyline
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 12 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
5.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
DET beat PHI 6-3.
Last play
Game End
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| DET | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
Period scoring
PHI won 0 · DET won 2
1
2
3
Play-by-play · 280 plays
- 3rd·20:00
Game End
PHI 3·DET 6
- 3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
PHI 3·DET 6
- 3rd·18:23
Emil Andrae hit James van Riemsdyk
·
PHI 3·DET 6
- 3rd·18:09
Marco Kasper faceoff won against Sean Couturier
·
PHI 3·DET 6
- 3rd·18:09
Luke Glendening Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Denver Barkey (10), Sean Couturier (23)
· ·
PHI 3·DET 6
- 3rd·17:30
Noah Cates Slap Shot saved by Cam Talbot
·
PHI 2·DET 6
- 3rd·17:25
Noah Cates faceoff won against J.T. Compher
·
PHI 2·DET 6
- 3rd·17:25
Goalie Stopped
PHI 2·DET 6
- 3rd·17:23
Alex Bump Wrist Shot saved by Cam Talbot
·
PHI 2·DET 6
- 3rd·16:59
Carter Mazur shot blocked by Cam York
·
PHI 2·DET 6
- 3rd·16:41
Porter Martone hit Albert Johansson
·
PHI 2·DET 6
- 3rd·16:36
Porter Martone shot blocked by Jacob Bernard-Docker
·
PHI 2·DET 6
- 3rd·16:30
Nick Seeler hit Dominik Shine
·
PHI 2·DET 6
- 3rd·16:21
Nick Seeler shot blocked by James van Riemsdyk
·
PHI 2·DET 6
- 3rd·16:11
Ben Chiarot hit Owen Tippett
·
PHI 2·DET 6
- 3rd·16:01
Giveaway by Emil Andrae
PHI 2·DET 6
- 3rd·15:08
Dylan Larkin faceoff won against Sean Couturier
·
PHI 2·DET 6
- 3rd·15:08
Puck in Netting
PHI 2·DET 6
- 3rd·14:20
Tyson Foerster shot blocked by Justin Faulk
·
PHI 2·DET 6
- 3rd·14:07
Marco Kasper Snap Shot Wide Left
·
PHI 2·DET 6
- 3rd·14:03
Giveaway by Travis Konecny
PHI 2·DET 6
- 3rd·13:31
Dylan Larkin faceoff won against Christian Dvorak
·
PHI 2·DET 6
- 3rd·13:31
Puck Frozen - Goalie
PHI 2·DET 6
- 3rd·13:28
Christian Dvorak faceoff won against Dylan Larkin
·
PHI 2·DET 6
- 3rd·13:28
Goalie Stopped
PHI 2·DET 6
- 3rd·13:26
Rasmus Ristolainen Slap Shot saved by Cam Talbot
·
PHI 2·DET 6
- 3rd·13:15
J.T. Compher faceoff won against Christian Dvorak
·
PHI 2·DET 6
- 3rd·13:15
Simon Edvinsson High-sticking against Emil Andrae
·
PHI 2·DET 6
- 3rd·12:51
Lucas Raymond Tip-In saved by Samuel Ersson
·
PHI 2·DET 6
- 3rd·12:46
Dylan Larkin faceoff won against Trevor Zegras
·
PHI 2·DET 6
Team stats
PHI
Away
Stat
DET
Home
27
Shots
22
16.7
PCT
75.0
12
PIM
16
26
Faceoffs W
28
13
Blocks
12
12
Giveaways
9
3
Takeaways
4
Betting line
DET -1.5·O/U 5.5·PHI -102/DET -118
NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
Moritz SeiderDET · DDIST MI299.899
Jamie DrysdalePHI · DSKATE MPH23.098
Tyson FoersterPHI · RWSHOT MPH92.796
Alex DeBrincatDET · RWDIST MI252.196
Travis SanheimPHI · DSKATE MPH22.795
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.1%
ensemble · DET favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
-118
Close price
-118
Open no-vig
51.7%
Close no-vig
51.7%
Line barely moved · Graded: hit