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FINAL+3DET
PHI

PHI

40-27-12

36
DET

DET

41-29-9

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Apr 9FinalSeriesDET wins series 2-1VegasDET -118

Recap · NHL

etroit Red Wings held off Philadelphia Flyers, 6–3.

DET -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PHI · top performer

PHI
P

Porter Martone

RW · #94

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

DET · top performer

DET
Dylan Larkin

Dylan Larkin

C · #71

4Points

3

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Philadelphia Flyers at Detroit Red Wings · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
3
6
PHI40-27-12DET41-29-9
PHI

PHI

40-27-12

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
DET

DET

41-29-9

6
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

PIM

16

Season series

DET wins series 2-1

Mar 29PHIPHI5@DETDET3
Apr 2DETDET4@PHIPHI2
Apr 9PHIPHI3@DETDET6today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PHIPHI-10250%
DETDET-11854%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -1.5↗SpreadBet DET -1.5↗

Line movement · 12 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DET beat PHI 6-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
PHI1113
DET1326

Period scoring

PHI won 0 · DET won 2

1
1

1

1
3

2

1
2

3

PHI
DET

Play-by-play · 280 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    PHI 3·DET 6

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    PHI 3·DET 6

  3. 3rd·18:23

    Emil Andrae hit James van Riemsdyk

    ·

    PHI 3·DET 6

  4. 3rd·18:09

    Marco Kasper faceoff won against Sean Couturier

    ·

    PHI 3·DET 6

  5. 3rd·18:09

    Luke Glendening Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Denver Barkey (10), Sean Couturier (23)

    · ·

    PHI 3·DET 6

  6. 3rd·17:30

    Noah Cates Slap Shot saved by Cam Talbot

    ·

    PHI 2·DET 6

  7. 3rd·17:25

    Noah Cates faceoff won against J.T. Compher

    ·

    PHI 2·DET 6

  8. 3rd·17:25

    Goalie Stopped

    PHI 2·DET 6

  9. 3rd·17:23

    Alex Bump Wrist Shot saved by Cam Talbot

    ·

    PHI 2·DET 6

  10. 3rd·16:59

    Carter Mazur shot blocked by Cam York

    ·

    PHI 2·DET 6

  11. 3rd·16:41

    Porter Martone hit Albert Johansson

    ·

    PHI 2·DET 6

  12. 3rd·16:36

    Porter Martone shot blocked by Jacob Bernard-Docker

    ·

    PHI 2·DET 6

  13. 3rd·16:30

    Nick Seeler hit Dominik Shine

    ·

    PHI 2·DET 6

  14. 3rd·16:21

    Nick Seeler shot blocked by James van Riemsdyk

    ·

    PHI 2·DET 6

  15. 3rd·16:11

    Ben Chiarot hit Owen Tippett

    ·

    PHI 2·DET 6

  16. 3rd·16:01

    Giveaway by Emil Andrae

    PHI 2·DET 6

  17. 3rd·15:08

    Dylan Larkin faceoff won against Sean Couturier

    ·

    PHI 2·DET 6

  18. 3rd·15:08

    Puck in Netting

    PHI 2·DET 6

  19. 3rd·14:20

    Tyson Foerster shot blocked by Justin Faulk

    ·

    PHI 2·DET 6

  20. 3rd·14:07

    Marco Kasper Snap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    PHI 2·DET 6

  21. 3rd·14:03

    Giveaway by Travis Konecny

    PHI 2·DET 6

  22. 3rd·13:31

    Dylan Larkin faceoff won against Christian Dvorak

    ·

    PHI 2·DET 6

  23. 3rd·13:31

    Puck Frozen - Goalie

    PHI 2·DET 6

  24. 3rd·13:28

    Christian Dvorak faceoff won against Dylan Larkin

    ·

    PHI 2·DET 6

  25. 3rd·13:28

    Goalie Stopped

    PHI 2·DET 6

  26. 3rd·13:26

    Rasmus Ristolainen Slap Shot saved by Cam Talbot

    ·

    PHI 2·DET 6

  27. 3rd·13:15

    J.T. Compher faceoff won against Christian Dvorak

    ·

    PHI 2·DET 6

  28. 3rd·13:15

    Simon Edvinsson High-sticking against Emil Andrae

    ·

    PHI 2·DET 6

  29. 3rd·12:51

    Lucas Raymond Tip-In saved by Samuel Ersson

    ·

    PHI 2·DET 6

  30. 3rd·12:46

    Dylan Larkin faceoff won against Trevor Zegras

    ·

    PHI 2·DET 6

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

DET

Home

27

Shots

22

16.7

PCT

75.0

12

PIM

16

26

Faceoffs W

28

13

Blocks

12

12

Giveaways

9

3

Takeaways

4

Betting line

DET -1.5·O/U 5.5·PHI -102/DET -118

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Moritz SeiderDET · D
    DIST MI299.899
  • Jamie DrysdalePHI · D
    SKATE MPH23.098
  • Tyson FoersterPHI · RW
    SHOT MPH92.796
  • Alex DeBrincatDET · RW
    DIST MI252.196
  • Travis SanheimPHI · D
    SKATE MPH22.795

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · DET favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DET win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DET win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-118

Close price

-118

Open no-vig

51.7%

Close no-vig

51.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR