Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHI at DET?

The model favors DET, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3DET

PHI

40-27-12

DET

41-29-9

NHLThu, Apr 9FinalSeriesDET wins series 2-1VegasDET -118

PHI · top performer

Porter Martone

RW · #94

2Points

—

SOG

DET · top performer

Dylan Larkin

C · #71

4Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. BarkeyC · #52	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	10:05
A. BumpLW · #20	0	0	-1	1	3	0	0	11:27
N. CatesLW · #27	0	0	0	2	4	1	0	16:06
S. CouturierC · #14	0	1	1	0	5	1	0	13:05
C. DvorakC · #22	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	18:39
T. FoersterRW · #71	0	0	-2	4	0	2	2	18:08
L. GlendeningC · #41	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	10:25
T. KonecnyRW · #11	0	1	0	3	5	0	0	14:59
P. MartoneRW · #94	1	1	0	3	4	0	2	19:46
M. MichkovRW · #39	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	13:53
O. TippettRW · #74	0	0	-1	0	1	0	2	16:47
T. ZegrasC · #46	0	1	-2	1	3	1	2	19:17

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. AndraeD · #36	0	0	1	0	2	2	0	12:57
J. DrysdaleD · #9	0	1	0	4	0	0	0	23:04
R. RistolainenD · #55	0	0	-1	1	0	0	2	18:51
T. SanheimD · #6	0	0	-1	3	0	1	0	18:58
N. SeelerD · #24	0	0	1	0	3	1	0	15:20
C. YorkD · #8	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	21:45

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. ErssonG · #33	14	2	12	.857	35:04
D. VladarG · #80	8	4	4	.500	24:56

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J.T. CompherLW · #37	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	18:03
A. CoppC · #18	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	18:05
A. DeBrincatRW · #93	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	16:06
E. FinnieC · #58	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	14:59
P. KaneRW · #88	1	2	1	3	1	0	0	15:09
M. KasperC · #92	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	10:29
D. LarkinC · #71	3	1	2	4	0	0	0	19:34
C. MazurLW · #34	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	11:17
D. PerronLW · #57	0	0	-1	0	4	0	0	14:16
L. RaymondLW · #23	0	2	0	4	2	0	2	17:08
D. ShineRW · #65	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6:26
J. van RiemsdykLW · #21	0	0	-1	0	0	2	0	9:00

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Bernard-DockerD · #25	0	0	-2	0	0	1	0	15:40
B. ChiarotD · #8	0	0	2	1	2	0	2	21:25
S. EdvinssonD · #77	0	1	2	0	0	1	2	20:34
J. FaulkD · #72	0	0	0	2	3	3	6	18:40
A. JohanssonD · #20	0	1	-1	0	1	2	2	18:36
M. SeiderD · #53	1	4	2	3	2	0	2	22:06

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. GibsonG · #36	15	2	13	.867	30:40
C. TalbotG · #39	12	1	11	.917	29:20

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

DET

Home

Shots

16.7

PCT

75.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

DET wins series 2-1

Mar 29

PHI5@

DET3

Apr 2

DET4@

PHI2

Apr 9

PHI3@

DET6today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PHI-10250%

DET-11854%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -1.5↗SpreadBet DET -1.5↗

Line movement · 56 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DET beat PHI 6-3. D. Larkin led the way — 3 G · 1 A · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
PHI	1	1	1	3
DET	1	3	2	6

Period scoring

PHI won 0 · DET won 2

PHI

DET

Play-by-play · 280 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
PHI 3·DET 6
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
PHI 3·DET 6
3rd·18:23
Emil Andrae hit James van Riemsdyk
·
PHI 3·DET 6
3rd·18:09
Marco Kasper faceoff won against Sean Couturier
·
PHI 3·DET 6
3rd·18:09
Luke Glendening Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Denver Barkey (10), Sean Couturier (23)
· ·
PHI 3·DET 6
3rd·17:30
Noah Cates Slap Shot saved by Cam Talbot
·
PHI 2·DET 6
3rd·17:25
Noah Cates faceoff won against J.T. Compher
·
PHI 2·DET 6
3rd·17:25
Goalie Stopped
PHI 2·DET 6
3rd·17:23
Alex Bump Wrist Shot saved by Cam Talbot
·
PHI 2·DET 6
3rd·16:59
Carter Mazur shot blocked by Cam York
·
PHI 2·DET 6
3rd·16:41
Porter Martone hit Albert Johansson
·
PHI 2·DET 6
3rd·16:36
Porter Martone shot blocked by Jacob Bernard-Docker
·
PHI 2·DET 6
3rd·16:30
Nick Seeler hit Dominik Shine
·
PHI 2·DET 6
3rd·16:21
Nick Seeler shot blocked by James van Riemsdyk
·
PHI 2·DET 6
3rd·16:11
Ben Chiarot hit Owen Tippett
·
PHI 2·DET 6
3rd·16:01
Giveaway by Emil Andrae
PHI 2·DET 6
3rd·15:08
Dylan Larkin faceoff won against Sean Couturier
·
PHI 2·DET 6
3rd·15:08
Puck in Netting
PHI 2·DET 6
3rd·14:20
Tyson Foerster shot blocked by Justin Faulk
·
PHI 2·DET 6
3rd·14:07
Marco Kasper Snap Shot Wide Left
·
PHI 2·DET 6
3rd·14:03
Giveaway by Travis Konecny
PHI 2·DET 6
3rd·13:31
Dylan Larkin faceoff won against Christian Dvorak
·
PHI 2·DET 6
3rd·13:31
Puck Frozen - Goalie
PHI 2·DET 6
3rd·13:28
Christian Dvorak faceoff won against Dylan Larkin
·
PHI 2·DET 6
3rd·13:28
Goalie Stopped
PHI 2·DET 6
3rd·13:26
Rasmus Ristolainen Slap Shot saved by Cam Talbot
·
PHI 2·DET 6
3rd·13:15
J.T. Compher faceoff won against Christian Dvorak
·
PHI 2·DET 6
3rd·13:15
Simon Edvinsson High-sticking against Emil Andrae
·
PHI 2·DET 6
3rd·12:51
Lucas Raymond Tip-In saved by Samuel Ersson
·
PHI 2·DET 6
3rd·12:46
Dylan Larkin faceoff won against Trevor Zegras
·
PHI 2·DET 6

Betting line

DET -1.5·O/U 5.5·PHI -102/DET -118

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

etroit Red Wings held off Philadelphia Flyers, 6–3.

DET -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Dylan Larkin · DET19:240.5056.7%56.1%19:24 TOI · 0.50 iXG · 56.7% CF · 56.1% xGF
Alex DeBrincat · DET16:120.4957.7%49.8%16:12 TOI · 0.49 iXG · 57.7% CF · 49.8% xGF
Porter Martone · PHI19:540.4562.5%64.9%19:54 TOI · 0.45 iXG · 62.5% CF · 64.9% xGF
Lucas Raymond · DET17:120.3554.8%52.5%17:12 TOI · 0.35 iXG · 54.8% CF · 52.5% xGF
Travis Konecny · PHI15:120.3463.6%67.2%15:12 TOI · 0.34 iXG · 63.6% CF · 67.2% xGF
Patrick Kane · DET15:240.3368.0%63.6%15:24 TOI · 0.33 iXG · 68.0% CF · 63.6% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Cam Talbot · DET11–1.917+0.2611–1 · .917 SV% · +0.26 GSAx
John Gibson · DET13–2.867-0.4713–2 · .867 SV% · -0.47 GSAx
Samuel Ersson · PHI12–2.857-0.9312–2 · .857 SV% · -0.93 GSAx
Dan Vladar · PHI4–4.500-2.734–4 · .500 SV% · -2.73 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.8%

ensemble · DET favored

Elo Static
54.8%
P(DET win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
54.8%
P(DET win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
54.8%
P(DET win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-118

Close price

-118

Open no-vig

51.7%

Close no-vig

51.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHI at DET?: The model favors DET, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

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