Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WPG at STL?

The model favors STL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1WPG

WPG

35-31-12

STL

33-33-12

NHLThu, Apr 9FinalSeriesWPG wins series 3-1VegasSTL -115

WPG · top performer

Josh Morrissey

D · #44

1Points

—

SOG

STL · top performer

Dylan Holloway

LW · #81

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. ConnorLW · #81	0	0	1	6	0	0	0	20:56
A. IafalloLW · #9	1	0	0	3	0	1	0	19:28
C. KoepkeLW · #45	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	11:46
B. LambertC · #93	0	0	0	2	2	2	0	10:31
A. LowryC · #17	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	16:47
V. NamestnikovC · #7	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	12:27
N. NiederreiterRW · #62	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:35
C. PerfettiC · #91	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	13:47
I. RosenRW · #27	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	7:49
M. ScheifeleC · #55	0	2	1	1	0	1	0	20:21
J. ToewsC · #19	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	10:20
G. VilardiC · #13	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	16:31

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BrysonD · #78	0	1	2	1	1	0	0	11:14
D. DeMeloD · #2	0	0	0	1	0	1	2	23:10
H. FleuryD · #24	0	1	1	1	0	1	2	11:37
J. MorrisseyD · #44	1	0	2	4	1	1	2	22:16
N. PionkD · #4	0	0	0	5	3	2	2	24:04
D. SambergD · #54	0	0	-1	0	1	2	0	26:52

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. HellebuyckG · #37	22	2	20	.909	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BerggrenRW · #29	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	17:06
P. BuchnevichLW · #89	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	16:59
D. DvorskyRW · #54	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	19:37
J. FinleyC · #37	0	0	-1	0	4	0	0	10:09
D. HollowayLW · #81	1	1	0	2	1	0	0	18:03
J. KyrouRW · #25	0	1	1	1	0	1	2	17:06
J. NeighboursLW · #63	0	0	-1	4	3	0	0	15:51
J. SnuggerudRW · #21	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	17:01
O. StenbergC · #28	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	15:57
R. ThomasC · #18	0	1	-1	1	0	0	0	17:41
A. ToropchenkoRW · #13	0	0	-1	1	3	0	0	10:56
N. WalkerLW · #26	0	0	-1	2	4	0	0	10:43

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. BrobergD · #6	0	1	-2	1	0	0	0	22:32
C. FowlerD · #17	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	16:47
T. LindsteinD · #41	0	0	-1	2	1	1	0	18:45
L. MaillouxD · #23	0	0	-1	0	2	1	0	20:13
C. ParaykoD · #55	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	19:24
T. TuckerD · #75	0	0	-1	1	1	3	0	14:37

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BinningtonG · #50	34	3	31	.912	58:33

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

WPG

Away

Stat

STL

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

20.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

WPG wins series 3-1

Dec 18

WPG0@

STL1

Jan 21

STL1@

WPG3

Mar 15

STL2@

WPG3

Apr 10

WPG3@

STL2today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

STL -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

WPG-10551%

STL-11553%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet STL -1.5↗SpreadBet STL -1.5↗

Line movement · 80 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

WPG beat STL 3-2. J. Morrissey led the way — 1 G · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
WPG	1	2	0	3
STL	1	0	1	2

Period scoring

WPG won 1 · STL won 1

WPG

STL

Play-by-play · 253 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
WPG 3·STL 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
WPG 3·STL 2
3rd·18:13
Giveaway by Dylan Holloway
WPG 3·STL 2
3rd·17:26
Adam Lowry faceoff won against Robert Thomas
·
WPG 3·STL 2
3rd·17:26
Josh Morrissey High-sticking against Jimmy Snuggerud
·
WPG 3·STL 2
3rd·17:06
Robert Thomas faceoff won against Adam Lowry
·
WPG 3·STL 2
3rd·17:06
Goalie Stopped
WPG 3·STL 2
3rd·17:03
Josh Morrissey Wrist Shot saved by Jordan Binnington
·
WPG 3·STL 2
3rd·16:44
Theo Lindstein hit Jonathan Toews
·
WPG 3·STL 2
3rd·16:04
Jonathan Toews faceoff won against Dalibor Dvorsky
·
WPG 3·STL 2
3rd·16:04
Puck in Netting
WPG 3·STL 2
3rd·16:01
Kyle Connor Wrist Shot saved by Jordan Binnington
·
WPG 3·STL 2
3rd·15:31
Dylan DeMelo Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
WPG 3·STL 2
3rd·15:26
Kyle Connor Wrist Shot saved by Jordan Binnington
·
WPG 3·STL 2
3rd·15:17
Giveaway by Logan Mailloux
WPG 3·STL 2
3rd·15:03
Pavel Buchnevich Snap Shot Wide Left
·
WPG 3·STL 2
3rd·13:53
Logan Mailloux hit Gabriel Vilardi
·
WPG 3·STL 2
3rd·13:36
Giveaway by Dalibor Dvorsky
WPG 3·STL 2
3rd·13:36
Giveaway by Connor Hellebuyck
·
WPG 3·STL 2
3rd·13:12
Dalibor Dvorsky Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
WPG 3·STL 2
3rd·13:00
Dalibor Dvorsky faceoff won against Adam Lowry
·
WPG 3·STL 2
3rd·13:00
Colton Parayko Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (25), Dylan Holloway (25)
· ·
WPG 3·STL 2
3rd·12:45
Alex Iafallo Snap Shot saved by Jordan Binnington
·
WPG 3·STL 1
3rd·11:44
Jake Neighbours shot blocked by Dylan DeMelo
·
WPG 3·STL 1
3rd·11:35
Robert Thomas faceoff won against Vladislav Namestnikov
·
WPG 3·STL 1
3rd·11:35
Puck in Crowd
WPG 3·STL 1
3rd·11:17
Dalibor Dvorsky shot blocked by Dylan Samberg
·
WPG 3·STL 1
3rd·11:06
Logan Mailloux shot blocked by Neal Pionk
·
WPG 3·STL 1
3rd·10:56
Neal Pionk Wrist Shot saved by Jordan Binnington
·
WPG 3·STL 1
3rd·10:43
Jonathan Toews faceoff won against Dalibor Dvorsky
·
WPG 3·STL 1

Betting line

STL -1.5·O/U 5.5·WPG -105/STL -115

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

innipeg Jets went into St. Louis Blues and beat them, 3–2.

WPG +1.5 cashed (STL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.6%

ensemble · STL favored

Elo Static
57.6%
P(STL win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
57.6%
P(STL win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
57.6%
P(STL win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-115

Close price

-115

Open no-vig

51.1%

Close no-vig

51.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WPG at STL?: The model favors STL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Winnipeg JetsSt. Louis Blues

Elsewhere in the NHL