Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PIT at NJ?

The model favors NJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3PIT

PIT

41-22-16

40-36-3

NHLThu, Apr 9FinalSeriesPIT wins series 3-1VegasPIT -112

PIT · top performer

Egor Chinakhov

RW · #59

3Points

—

SOG

NJ · top performer

Jack Hughes

C · #86

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. AcciariC · #55	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	14:51
J. BrazeauRW · #16	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	14:19
E. ChinakhovRW · #59	1	2	2	2	0	0	0	14:23
S. CrosbyC · #87	0	2	2	4	0	1	0	14:43
A. HayesRW · #85	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	11:13
B. KindelC · #81	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	14:47
E. MalkinC · #71	1	1	3	2	0	0	0	17:13
A. ManthaRW · #39	0	0	-1	1	0	0	2	16:02
T. NovakC · #18	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	16:21
R. RakellRW · #67	0	0	1	8	0	1	0	18:06
B. RustRW · #17	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	16:21
E. SoderblomLW · #25	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	11:32

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CliftonD · #75	0	0	2	1	0	1	0	16:54
S. GirardD · #49	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	18:50
E. KarlssonD · #65	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	22:30
K. LetangD · #58	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	20:15
R. SheaD · #5	0	1	2	2	0	0	0	18:00
P. WotherspoonD · #28	0	1	0	1	1	1	0	21:40

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. SkinnerG · #74	21	2	19	.905	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. BjugstadC · #72	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	14:06
J. BrattLW · #63	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	17:41
C. BrownRW · #16	0	1	-1	2	0	1	0	18:09
P. CotterLW · #47	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	10:49
C. GlassC · #12	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	14:33
B. HalonenLW · #48	0	1	1	0	3	0	0	8:54
L. HameenahoRW · #29	0	0	-1	3	0	0	0	13:59
N. HischierC · #13	0	0	-3	0	0	0	0	18:06
J. HughesC · #86	1	0	-1	5	0	3	0	20:49
M. McLaughlinC · #21	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	9:41
T. MeierRW · #28	0	0	-3	3	1	1	0	17:00
D. MercerC · #91	0	0	-2	0	0	0	0	17:21

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. CholowskiD · #44	0	0	-2	1	0	2	0	17:40
B. DillonD · #5	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	21:24
D. HamiltonD · #7	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	20:04
J. KovacevicD · #8	0	0	-2	1	3	3	0	19:24
S. NemecD · #17	0	0	-2	1	1	4	2	23:01
J. SiegenthalerD · #71	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	16:04

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AllenG · #34	29	4	25	.862	59:15

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

PIT

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

PIT wins series 3-1

Nov 8

PIT1@

NJ2

Jan 9

NJ1@

PIT4

Feb 27

NJ1@

PIT4

Apr 9

PIT5@

NJ2today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PIT -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PIT-11253%

NJ-10852%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗

Line movement · 94 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PIT beat NJ 5-2. E. Chinakhov led the way — 1 G · 2 A · 2 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
PIT	1	2	2	5
NJ	0	2	0	2

Period scoring

PIT won 2 · NJ won 0

PIT

Play-by-play · 259 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
PIT 5·NJ 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
PIT 5·NJ 2
3rd·19:32
Lenni Hameenaho Wrist Shot saved by Stuart Skinner
·
PIT 5·NJ 2
3rd·19:00
Giveaway by Dennis Cholowski
PIT 5·NJ 2
3rd·18:46
Johnathan Kovacevic hit Evgeni Malkin
·
PIT 5·NJ 2
3rd·18:33
Takeaway by Marc McLaughlin
PIT 5·NJ 2
3rd·18:23
Marc McLaughlin faceoff won against Thomas Novak
·
PIT 5·NJ 2
3rd·18:23
Puck in Netting
PIT 5·NJ 2
3rd·18:14
Marc McLaughlin faceoff won against Rickard Rakell
·
PIT 5·NJ 2
3rd·18:14
Puck in Netting
PIT 5·NJ 2
3rd·18:12
Connor Clifton shot blocked by Marc McLaughlin
·
PIT 5·NJ 2
3rd·17:50
Anthony Mantha shot blocked by Simon Nemec
·
PIT 5·NJ 2
3rd·17:02
Takeaway by Lenni Hameenaho
PIT 5·NJ 2
3rd·17:00
Ben Kindel faceoff won against Cody Glass
·
PIT 5·NJ 2
3rd·17:00
Erik Karlsson Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Parker Wotherspoon (27), Noel Acciari (12)
· ·
PIT 5·NJ 2
3rd·16:54
Noel Acciari faceoff won against Nico Hischier
·
PIT 4·NJ 2
3rd·16:54
Icing
PIT 4·NJ 2
3rd·16:50
Evgeni Malkin Wrist Shot Wide Left
PIT 4·NJ 2
3rd·16:34
Sidney Crosby Wrist Shot Wide Right
PIT 4·NJ 2
3rd·16:27
Giveaway by Timo Meier
PIT 4·NJ 2
3rd·16:15
Jack Hughes shot blocked by Sidney Crosby
·
PIT 4·NJ 2
3rd·15:32
Simon Nemec shot blocked by Avery Hayes
·
PIT 4·NJ 2
3rd·15:19
Avery Hayes hit Simon Nemec
·
PIT 4·NJ 2
3rd·14:03
Dennis Cholowski Slap Shot saved by Stuart Skinner
·
PIT 4·NJ 2
3rd·13:41
Giveaway by Kris Letang
PIT 4·NJ 2
3rd·13:05
Giveaway by Rickard Rakell
PIT 4·NJ 2
3rd·12:27
Sidney Crosby Slap Shot saved by Jake Allen
·
PIT 4·NJ 2
3rd·12:21
Takeaway by Connor Clifton
PIT 4·NJ 2
3rd·11:57
Cody Glass faceoff won against Sidney Crosby
·
PIT 4·NJ 2
3rd·11:57
Puck in Netting
PIT 4·NJ 2

Betting line

PIT -1.5·O/U 6.5·PIT -112/NJ -108

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ittsburgh Penguins went into New Jersey Devils and beat them, 5–2.

PIT -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Rickard Rakell · PIT18:181.2473.0%83.9%18:18 TOI · 1.24 iXG · 73.0% CF · 83.9% xGF
Evgeni Malkin · PIT17:120.5275.0%86.5%17:12 TOI · 0.52 iXG · 75.0% CF · 86.5% xGF
Timo Meier · NJD17:060.4448.1%52.8%17:06 TOI · 0.44 iXG · 48.1% CF · 52.8% xGF
Jack Hughes · NJD21:060.4240.5%40.1%21:06 TOI · 0.42 iXG · 40.5% CF · 40.1% xGF
Sidney Crosby · PIT14:420.3965.6%64.0%14:42 TOI · 0.39 iXG · 65.6% CF · 64.0% xGF
Egor Chinakhov · PIT14:240.3661.3%57.7%14:24 TOI · 0.36 iXG · 61.3% CF · 57.7% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Stuart Skinner · PIT19–2.905-0.0519–2 · .905 SV% · -0.05 GSAx
Jake Allen · NJD25–4.862-0.8925–4 · .862 SV% · -0.89 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.1%

ensemble · NJ favored

Elo Static
54.1%
P(NJ win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
54.1%
P(NJ win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
54.1%
P(NJ win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-108

Close price

-108

Open no-vig

49.6%

Close no-vig

49.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PIT at NJ?: The model favors NJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Pittsburgh PenguinsNew Jersey Devils

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