Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at DAL?

The model favors DAL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1DAL

MIN

45-22-12

DAL

47-20-12

NHLThu, Apr 9FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasDAL -122

MIN · top performer

Kirill Kaprizov

LW · #97

2Points

—

SOG

DAL · top performer

Wyatt Johnston

C · #53

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BoldyLW · #12	0	2	-1	4	2	0	2	20:47
J. Eriksson EkC · #14	0	0	-1	6	1	1	0	18:10
N. FolignoLW · #71	0	0	-3	0	1	0	6	10:08
M. FolignoLW · #17	0	0	-3	2	5	0	0	10:39
R. HartmanRW · #38	1	0	0	2	1	1	2	14:37
M. JohanssonLW · #90	0	0	-1	1	3	0	0	13:50
K. KaprizovLW · #97	2	0	0	4	3	0	0	23:00
M. McCarronC · #47	0	0	-2	1	1	1	0	9:55
V. TarasenkoRW · #91	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	14:55
Y. TreninC · #13	0	0	0	3	5	1	0	12:53
D. YurovRW · #22	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	14:14
M. ZuccarelloRW · #36	0	3	0	1	0	0	0	18:12

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BrodinD · #25	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	16:35
B. FaberD · #7	0	0	-2	1	1	0	0	24:38
Q. HughesD · #43	1	1	-2	2	0	1	2	31:51
J. MiddletonD · #5	0	0	-2	1	1	1	0	11:55
J. PetryD · #2	0	0	-2	0	0	0	0	12:04
J. SpurgeonD · #46	0	1	0	0	1	1	0	17:22

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. GustavssonG · #32	20	5	15	.750	58:15

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. BackC · #10	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	13:24
J. BennLW · #14	0	0	-1	0	2	1	0	12:55
C. BlackwellC · #15	1	1	2	2	0	1	0	9:56
M. BourqueC · #22	0	0	1	2	4	0	0	17:00
M. DucheneC · #95	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	14:20
A. ErneLW · #73	0	0	-1	1	1	0	2	10:35
J. HryckowianC · #49	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	17:24
C. HughesC · #34	1	0	2	1	1	0	0	8:57
A. HyryRW · #25	0	0	-1	1	2	1	0	15:10
W. JohnstonC · #53	1	1	2	3	0	0	4	16:53
M. RantanenRW · #96	1	1	2	1	3	1	4	17:42
J. RobertsonLW · #21	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	16:14

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. BichselD · #6	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	20:25
T. HarleyD · #55	0	1	2	1	1	0	2	25:17
M. HeiskanenD · #4	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	5:45
E. LindellD · #23	0	2	4	3	0	2	2	25:03
I. LyubushkinD · #46	0	0	1	0	1	3	0	20:08
T. MyersD · #57	0	0	2	0	2	2	4	22:38

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. OettingerG · #29	31	4	27	.871	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

DAL

Home

Shots

60.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Playoff series

Apr 18

MIN6@

DAL1

Apr 21

MIN2@

DAL4

Apr 23

DAL4@

MIN3

Apr 25

DAL2@

MIN3

Apr 29

MIN4@

DAL2

Apr 30

DAL2@

MIN5

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MIN+10250%

DAL-12255%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 65 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DAL beat MIN 5-4. W. Johnston led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
MIN	2	2	0	4
DAL	1	2	2	5

Period scoring

MIN won 1 · DAL won 1

MIN

DAL

Play-by-play · 299 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
MIN 4·DAL 5
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
MIN 4·DAL 5
3rd·19:45
Justin Hryckowian faceoff won against Joel Eriksson Ek
·
MIN 4·DAL 5
3rd·19:45
Matt Boldy Roughing against Mikko Rantanen
·
MIN 4·DAL 5
3rd·19:45
Thomas Harley Roughing against Quinn Hughes
· ·
MIN 4·DAL 5
3rd·19:45
Mikko Rantanen Roughing against Matt Boldy
·
MIN 4·DAL 5
3rd·19:45
Quinn Hughes Roughing against Thomas Harley
· ·
MIN 4·DAL 5
3rd·19:45
Off-side
MIN 4·DAL 5
3rd·19:34
Mats Zuccarello shot blocked by Joel Eriksson Ek
·
MIN 4·DAL 5
3rd·19:33
Vladimir Tarasenko Snap Shot saved by Jake Oettinger
·
MIN 4·DAL 5
3rd·18:57
Joel Eriksson Ek faceoff won against Arttu Hyry
·
MIN 4·DAL 5
3rd·18:57
Timeout - Visitor
MIN 4·DAL 5
3rd·18:57
Goalie Stopped
MIN 4·DAL 5
3rd·18:55
Mats Zuccarello Wrist Shot saved by Jake Oettinger
·
MIN 4·DAL 5
3rd·18:48
Matt Boldy shot blocked by Arttu Hyry
·
MIN 4·DAL 5
3rd·18:39
Tyler Myers hit Mats Zuccarello
·
MIN 4·DAL 5
3rd·18:26
Joel Eriksson Ek faceoff won against Oskar Bäck
·
MIN 4·DAL 5
3rd·18:26
High Stick
MIN 4·DAL 5
3rd·18:06
Takeaway by Mats Zuccarello
MIN 4·DAL 5
3rd·17:33
Oskar Bäck Wrist Shot saved by Filip Gustavsson
·
MIN 4·DAL 5
3rd·17:30
Arttu Hyry faceoff won against Joel Eriksson Ek
·
MIN 4·DAL 5
3rd·17:30
TV Timeout
MIN 4·DAL 5
3rd·17:30
Mikko Rantanen Slashing against Jonas Brodin
·
MIN 4·DAL 5
3rd·16:44
Michael McCarron Snap Shot High and Wide Right
·
MIN 4·DAL 5
3rd·15:34
Mavrik Bourque shot blocked by Vladimir Tarasenko
·
MIN 4·DAL 5
3rd·15:33
Justin Hryckowian faceoff won against Danila Yurov
·
MIN 4·DAL 5
3rd·15:33
Icing
MIN 4·DAL 5
3rd·15:21
Arttu Hyry faceoff won against Danila Yurov
·
MIN 4·DAL 5
3rd·15:21
Icing
MIN 4·DAL 5
3rd·14:53
Ilya Lyubushkin shot blocked by Ryan Hartman
·
MIN 4·DAL 5

Betting line

DAL -1.5·O/U 5.5·MIN +102/DAL -122

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

allas Stars held off Minnesota Wild, 5–4.

MIN +1.5 cashed (DAL won by 1). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.0%

ensemble · DAL favored

Elo Static
57.0%
P(DAL win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
57.0%
P(DAL win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
57.0%
P(DAL win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-122

Close price

-122

Open no-vig

52.6%

Close no-vig

52.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at DAL?: The model favors DAL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Minnesota WildDallas Stars

Elsewhere in the NHL