Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SJ at ANA?

The model favors SJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+5ANA

37-34-7

ANA

42-32-5

NHLThu, Apr 9FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasANA -175

SJ · top performer

Shakir Mukhamadullin

D · #85

1Points

—

SOG

ANA · top performer

John Carlson

D · #74

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. CelebriniC · #71	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	22:14
T. DellandreaC · #10	0	0	-1	0	4	0	0	12:07
W. EklundLW · #72	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	16:23
B. GoodrowC · #23	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	10:17
C. GrafRW · #51	0	0	-1	0	3	0	2	19:29
M. MisaC · #77	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	12:44
Z. OstapchukC · #63	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	8:21
P. RegendaLW · #84	0	0	-2	0	4	0	0	11:32
K. SherwoodLW · #44	0	0	-1	1	12	0	2	18:39
W. SmithC · #2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	16:58
T. ToffoliC · #73	0	1	-1	2	0	0	0	12:11
A. WennbergC · #21	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	15:40

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. DesharnaisD · #5	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	20:42
S. DickinsonD · #6	0	0	-4	1	1	1	2	15:11
M. FerraroD · #38	0	0	-1	1	1	2	0	23:33
N. LeddyD · #4	0	0	-3	0	0	0	0	17:51
S. MukhamadullinD · #85	1	0	1	2	1	2	0	20:32
D. OrlovD · #9	0	0	1	4	0	1	0	22:24

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Y. AskarovG · #30	30	6	24	.800	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. CarlssonC · #91	1	0	0	4	2	1	0	15:44
M. GranlundC · #64	0	2	2	0	1	2	0	15:38
A. KillornLW · #17	1	0	2	2	5	0	0	14:22
C. KreiderLW · #20	0	1	0	3	0	0	0	14:49
M. McTavishC · #23	0	1	1	3	1	2	0	12:28
R. PoehlingC · #25	0	0	1	2	1	3	0	17:49
B. SenneckeRW · #45	0	2	2	2	2	0	2	16:08
T. TerryRW · #19	0	2	0	6	0	1	0	18:15
F. VatranoRW · #77	1	0	1	1	3	0	0	12:15
J. VielLW · #28	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	12:43
T. WasheC · #42	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	17:45

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. CarlsonD · #74	3	0	2	3	0	1	0	20:16
D. HellesonD · #14	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	16:54
T. HindsD · #60	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	16:44
J. LaCombeD · #2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	22:59
P. MintyukovD · #98	0	2	2	2	1	0	0	18:15
I. MooreD · #3	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	14:30
J. TroubaD · #65	0	0	1	2	1	8	0	22:26

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. DostalG · #1	19	1	18	.947	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

Away

Stat

ANA

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

66.7

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 2-2

Oct 12

ANA7@

SJ6

Dec 30

SJ5@

ANA4

Apr 2

ANA3@

SJ4

Apr 10

SJ1@

ANA6today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ANA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

SJ+14541%

ANA-17564%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ANA -1.5↗SpreadBet ANA -1.5↗

Line movement · 60 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

ANA beat SJ 6-1. J. Carlson led the way — 3 G · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
SJ	0	0	1	1
ANA	2	1	3	6

Period scoring

SJ won 0 · ANA won 3

ANA

Play-by-play · 295 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
SJ 1·ANA 6
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
SJ 1·ANA 6
3rd·19:45
Giveaway by Jeffrey Viel
SJ 1·ANA 6
3rd·19:11
Zack Ostapchuk faceoff won against Mason McTavish
·
SJ 1·ANA 6
3rd·19:11
Icing
SJ 1·ANA 6
3rd·18:58
Zack Ostapchuk hit Tim Washe
·
SJ 1·ANA 6
3rd·18:50
Ryan Poehling faceoff won against Zack Ostapchuk
·
SJ 1·ANA 6
3rd·18:50
Goalie Stopped
SJ 1·ANA 6
3rd·18:48
Mason McTavish Slap Shot saved by Yaroslav Askarov
·
SJ 1·ANA 6
3rd·18:38
John Carlson Slap Shot Wide Right
·
SJ 1·ANA 6
3rd·18:34
Kiefer Sherwood hit Pavel Mintyukov
·
SJ 1·ANA 6
3rd·18:30
Frank Vatrano shot blocked by Mario Ferraro
·
SJ 1·ANA 6
3rd·18:18
Mason McTavish Tip-In saved by Yaroslav Askarov
·
SJ 1·ANA 6
3rd·17:57
Pavol Regenda hit Tyson Hinds
·
SJ 1·ANA 6
3rd·17:32
Ty Dellandrea faceoff won against Ryan Poehling
·
SJ 1·ANA 6
3rd·17:32
Frank Vatrano Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Mason McTavish (22)
·
SJ 1·ANA 6
3rd·17:22
Ryan Poehling Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
SJ 1·ANA 5
3rd·16:54
Giveaway by Will Smith
SJ 1·ANA 5
3rd·15:44
Jacob Trouba Snap Shot saved by Yaroslav Askarov
·
SJ 1·ANA 5
3rd·15:26
Chris Kreider Deflected Wide Right
·
SJ 1·ANA 5
3rd·14:59
Alexander Wennberg faceoff won against Ryan Poehling
·
SJ 1·ANA 5
3rd·14:59
Beckett Sennecke Roughing against Kiefer Sherwood
·
SJ 1·ANA 5
3rd·14:59
Kiefer Sherwood Roughing against Beckett Sennecke
·
SJ 1·ANA 5
3rd·14:59
Goalie Stopped
SJ 1·ANA 5
3rd·14:54
Troy Terry Snap Shot Wide Right
·
SJ 1·ANA 5
3rd·14:06
Leo Carlsson Backhand Wide Right
·
SJ 1·ANA 5
3rd·14:03
Mikael Granlund faceoff won against Zack Ostapchuk
·
SJ 1·ANA 5
3rd·14:03
John Carlson Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Troy Terry (38), Mikael Granlund (18)
· ·
SJ 1·ANA 5
3rd·13:48
Mikael Granlund faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
·
SJ 1·ANA 4
3rd·13:48
Vincent Desharnais High-sticking against Beckett Sennecke
·
SJ 1·ANA 4

Betting line

ANA -1.5·O/U 6.5·SJ +145/ANA -175

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

naheim Ducks held off San Jose Sharks, 6–1.

ANA -1.5 cashed (won by 5). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.8%

ensemble · ANA favored

Elo Static
58.8%
P(ANA win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
58.8%
P(ANA win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
58.8%
P(ANA win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+145

Close price

+145

Open no-vig

39.1%

Close no-vig

39.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SJ at ANA?: The model favors SJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

San Jose SharksAnaheim Ducks

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