Live · 5
Free during beta —to track favorites + alerts
FINAL+1SEA
VGK

VGK

36-26-17

34
SEA

SEA

33-34-11

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Apr 9FinalSeriesSEA leads series 3-0VegasVGK -192

Recap · NHL

eattle Kraken held off Vegas Golden Knights, 4–3.

SEA +1.5 cashed (VGK lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

VGK · top performer

VGK
Mark Stone

Mark Stone

RW · #61

2Points

2

G

0

A

—

SOG

SEA · top performer

SEA
Berkly Catton

Berkly Catton

C · #27

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Vegas Golden Knights at Seattle Kraken · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final/SO
3
4
VGK36-26-17SEA33-34-11
VGK

VGK

36-26-17

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
SEA

SEA

33-34-11

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

2

PIM

2

Season series

SEA leads series 3-0

Oct 12VGKVGK1@SEASEA2
Feb 1SEASEA3@VGKVGK2
Apr 10VGKVGK3@SEASEA4today
Apr 16SEASEA1@VGKVGK4

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

VGK -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

VGKVGK-19266%
SEASEA+16038%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SEA beat VGK 4-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTSOT
VGK111003
SEA012014

Period scoring

VGK won 1 · SEA won 2

1
0

1

1
1

2

1
2

3

0
0

OT

0
1

SO

VGK
SEA

Play-by-play · 366 plays

period
event
player
  1. SO·0:00

    Game End

    VGK 1·SEA 2

  2. SO·0:00

    End of OT

    VGK 1·SEA 2

  3. SO·0:00

    End of Shootout

    VGK 1·SEA 2

  4. SO·0:00

    Pavel Dorofeyev Wrist Shot saved by Joey Daccord

    ·

    VGK 1·SEA 2

  5. SO·0:00

    Berkly Catton Goal Wrist Shot

    VGK 1·SEA 2

  6. SO·0:00

    Shea Theodore Backhand saved by Joey Daccord

    ·

    VGK 1·SEA 2

  7. SO·0:00

    Jordan Eberle Backhand saved by Adin Hill

    ·

    VGK 1·SEA 2

  8. SO·0:00

    Jack Eichel Wrist Shot saved by Joey Daccord

    ·

    VGK 1·SEA 2

  9. SO·0:00

    Kaapo Kakko Backhand saved by Adin Hill

    ·

    VGK 1·SEA 2

  10. SO·0:00

    Mark Stone Wrist Shot saved by Joey Daccord

    ·

    VGK 1·SEA 2

  11. SO·0:00

    Matty Beniers Goal Wrist Shot

    VGK 1·SEA 2

  12. SO·0:00

    Mitch Marner Goal Wrist Shot

    VGK 1·SEA 2

  13. SO·0:00

    Freddy Gaudreau Backhand saved by Adin Hill

    ·

    VGK 1·SEA 2

  14. SO·0:00

    Start of Shootout

    VGK 1·SEA 2

  15. OT·5:00

    End of OT

    VGK 3·SEA 3

  16. OT·4:46

    Bobby McMann Wrist Shot saved by Adin Hill

    ·

    VGK 3·SEA 3

  17. OT·4:37

    Mitch Marner shot blocked by Vince Dunn

    ·

    VGK 3·SEA 3

  18. OT·4:35

    Giveaway by Jared McCann

    VGK 3·SEA 3

  19. OT·4:31

    Jack Eichel Backhand Hit Left Post

    ·

    VGK 3·SEA 3

  20. OT·4:23

    Jared McCann Wrist Shot Above Crossbar

    ·

    VGK 3·SEA 3

  21. OT·4:14

    Jack Eichel Wrist Shot saved by Joey Daccord

    ·

    VGK 3·SEA 3

  22. OT·4:01

    Takeaway by Jack Eichel

    VGK 3·SEA 3

  23. OT·3:56

    Giveaway by Jack Eichel

    VGK 3·SEA 3

  24. OT·3:35

    Matty Beniers faceoff won against Jack Eichel

    ·

    VGK 3·SEA 3

  25. OT·3:35

    Puck in Netting

    VGK 3·SEA 3

  26. OT·3:33

    Mitch Marner Wrist Shot saved by Joey Daccord

    ·

    VGK 3·SEA 3

  27. OT·2:30

    Jack Eichel Wrist Shot saved by Joey Daccord

    ·

    VGK 3·SEA 3

  28. OT·1:58

    Ivan Barbashev Backhand saved by Joey Daccord

    ·

    VGK 3·SEA 3

  29. OT·1:45

    Matty Beniers Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    VGK 3·SEA 3

  30. OT·1:26

    Giveaway by Matty Beniers

    VGK 3·SEA 3

Team stats

VGK

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

35

Shots

33

100.0

PCT

100.0

2

PIM

2

30

Faceoffs W

32

15

Blocks

13

18

Giveaways

16

7

Takeaways

8

Betting line

VGK -1.5·O/U 6.5·VGK -192/SEA +160

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Jack EichelVGK · C
    DIST MI58.999+
  • Bobby McMannSEA · C
    SKATE MPH24.399
  • Shea TheodoreVGK · D
    SKATE MPH23.399
  • Brandon MontourSEA · D
    SHOT MPH101.698
  • Matty BeniersSEA · C
    DIST MI267.798

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · SEA favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(SEA win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(SEA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+160

Close price

+160

Open no-vig

36.9%

Close no-vig

36.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR