Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in VGK at SEA?

The model favors SEA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1SEA

VGK

36-26-17

SEA

33-34-11

NHLThu, Apr 9FinalSeriesSEA leads series 3-0VegasVGK -192

VGK · top performer

Mark Stone

RW · #61

2Points

—

SOG

SEA · top performer

Bobby McMann

C · #74

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final/SO

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. BarbashevLW · #49	0	0	1	6	2	0	0	18:26
P. DorofeyevRW · #16	0	1	-1	2	0	1	0	15:30
N. DowdC · #26	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	12:05
J. EichelC · #9	0	1	1	3	0	0	2	21:19
T. HertlC · #48	0	1	0	2	1	2	0	14:46
B. HowdenC · #21	1	0	-1	1	0	0	0	15:34
K. KolesarRW · #55	0	0	0	0	5	1	0	12:42
M. MarnerRW · #93	0	1	-1	2	0	0	0	19:18
B. SaadLW · #20	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	14:13
C. SissonsC · #10	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	14:32
C. SmithRW · #22	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	12:05
M. StoneRW · #61	2	0	1	4	1	3	0	20:13

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. AnderssonD · #4	0	1	-1	2	1	3	0	29:03
N. HanifinD · #15	0	1	-1	4	0	1	0	24:50
B. HuttonD · #17	0	0	0	2	4	1	0	10:12
J. LauzonD · #5	0	0	0	3	3	1	0	15:36
B. McNabbD · #3	0	0	1	2	1	1	0	20:05
S. TheodoreD · #27	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	23:32

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. HillG · #33	33	3	30	.909	65:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BeniersC · #10	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	21:17
B. CattonC · #27	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:01
J. EberleRW · #7	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	20:05
O. Fisker MolgaardC · #78	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9:01
F. GaudreauC · #89	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:06
K. KakkoRW · #84	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	18:09
J. McCannLW · #19	1	0	-1	2	0	0	0	14:21
B. McMannC · #74	1	0	1	8	1	0	0	19:33
J. MelansonRW · #63	0	0	0	4	6	1	0	9:01
J. SchwartzC · #17	0	0	-1	0	1	1	0	17:19
C. StephensonC · #9	0	1	-1	1	0	2	0	20:04
R. WintertonC · #26	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	15:02

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. DunnD · #29	0	2	0	2	1	3	0	22:50
R. EvansD · #41	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	22:30
A. LarssonD · #6	0	1	0	4	1	0	0	21:23
J. MahuraD · #28	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	16:04
B. MontourD · #62	0	0	0	2	5	2	2	24:09
J. OleksiakD · #24	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	17:10

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DaccordG · #35	35	3	32	.914	65:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

VGK

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

Shots

100.0

PCT

100.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

SEA leads series 3-0

Oct 12

VGK1@

SEA2

Feb 1

SEA3@

VGK2

Apr 10

VGK3@

SEA4today

Apr 16

SEA1@

VGK4

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

VGK -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

VGK-19266%

SEA+16038%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗

Line movement · 53 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SEA beat VGK 4-3. B. McMann led the way — 1 G · 8 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	SO	T
VGK	1	1	1	0	0	3
SEA	0	1	2	0	1	4

Period scoring

VGK won 1 · SEA won 2

VGK

SEA

Play-by-play · 366 plays

period

event

player

SO·0:00
Game End
VGK 1·SEA 2
SO·0:00
End of OT
VGK 1·SEA 2
SO·0:00
End of Shootout
VGK 1·SEA 2
SO·0:00
Pavel Dorofeyev Wrist Shot saved by Joey Daccord
·
VGK 1·SEA 2
SO·0:00
Berkly Catton Goal Wrist Shot
VGK 1·SEA 2
SO·0:00
Shea Theodore Backhand saved by Joey Daccord
·
VGK 1·SEA 2
SO·0:00
Jordan Eberle Backhand saved by Adin Hill
·
VGK 1·SEA 2
SO·0:00
Jack Eichel Wrist Shot saved by Joey Daccord
·
VGK 1·SEA 2
SO·0:00
Kaapo Kakko Backhand saved by Adin Hill
·
VGK 1·SEA 2
SO·0:00
Mark Stone Wrist Shot saved by Joey Daccord
·
VGK 1·SEA 2
SO·0:00
Matty Beniers Goal Wrist Shot
VGK 1·SEA 2
SO·0:00
Mitch Marner Goal Wrist Shot
VGK 1·SEA 2
SO·0:00
Freddy Gaudreau Backhand saved by Adin Hill
·
VGK 1·SEA 2
SO·0:00
Start of Shootout
VGK 1·SEA 2
OT·5:00
End of OT
VGK 3·SEA 3
OT·4:46
Bobby McMann Wrist Shot saved by Adin Hill
·
VGK 3·SEA 3
OT·4:37
Mitch Marner shot blocked by Vince Dunn
·
VGK 3·SEA 3
OT·4:35
Giveaway by Jared McCann
VGK 3·SEA 3
OT·4:31
Jack Eichel Backhand Hit Left Post
·
VGK 3·SEA 3
OT·4:23
Jared McCann Wrist Shot Above Crossbar
·
VGK 3·SEA 3
OT·4:14
Jack Eichel Wrist Shot saved by Joey Daccord
·
VGK 3·SEA 3
OT·4:01
Takeaway by Jack Eichel
VGK 3·SEA 3
OT·3:56
Giveaway by Jack Eichel
VGK 3·SEA 3
OT·3:35
Matty Beniers faceoff won against Jack Eichel
·
VGK 3·SEA 3
OT·3:35
Puck in Netting
VGK 3·SEA 3
OT·3:33
Mitch Marner Wrist Shot saved by Joey Daccord
·
VGK 3·SEA 3
OT·2:30
Jack Eichel Wrist Shot saved by Joey Daccord
·
VGK 3·SEA 3
OT·1:58
Ivan Barbashev Backhand saved by Joey Daccord
·
VGK 3·SEA 3
OT·1:45
Matty Beniers Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
VGK 3·SEA 3
OT·1:26
Giveaway by Matty Beniers
VGK 3·SEA 3

Betting line

VGK -1.5·O/U 6.5·VGK -192/SEA +160

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

eattle Kraken held off Vegas Golden Knights, 4–3.

SEA +1.5 cashed (VGK lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.4%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
52.4%
P(SEA win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
52.4%
P(SEA win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
52.4%
P(SEA win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+160

Close price

+160

Open no-vig

36.9%

Close no-vig

36.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in VGK at SEA?: The model favors SEA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Vegas Golden KnightsSeattle Kraken

Elsewhere in the NHL