Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in VAN at LA?

The model favors VAN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3LA

VAN

22-48-8

33-26-19

NHLThu, Apr 9FinalSeriesLA leads series 3-0VegasLA -290

VAN · top performer

Marcus Pettersson

D · #29

1Points

—

SOG

LA · top performer

Adrian Kempe

RW · #9

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. BluegerC · #53	0	0	-2	2	2	0	0	14:59
B. BoeserRW · #6	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	19:14
J. DeBruskLW · #74	0	0	-2	2	1	0	0	17:18
C. DouglasC · #42	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	9:54
N. HoglanderLW · #21	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	12:18
L. KarlssonC · #94	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	14:56
D. O'ConnorLW · #18	0	0	-2	3	2	1	0	18:06
L. OhgrenLW · #92	0	1	0	1	2	0	0	16:09
E. PetterssonC · #40	0	0	-2	3	2	1	0	19:31
A. RatyC · #54	0	0	0	3	4	0	0	11:58
M. RossiC · #93	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	16:50
M. SassonC · #63	0	0	-2	3	0	0	0	12:43

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BuiumD · #24	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	23:13
F. HronekD · #17	0	0	-1	3	0	1	0	26:18
P. JosephD · #7	0	0	0	1	0	4	0	15:04
M. PetterssonD · #29	1	0	-1	1	0	0	0	20:03
Elias N. PetterssonD · #25	0	0	-1	0	3	2	2	14:20
T. WillanderD · #5	0	0	-2	0	1	0	0	18:48

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. TolopiloG · #60	26	4	22	.846	56:18

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ArmiaRW · #40	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	12:38
Q. ByfieldRW · #55	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	18:33
S. HeleniusC · #79	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	7:42
A. KempeRW · #9	2	0	2	2	0	1	0	18:55
A. KopitarC · #11	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	20:09
A. LaferriereRW · #14	0	1	0	2	4	0	0	18:57
S. LaughtonC · #21	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	14:10
J. MalottLW · #39	0	0	-1	0	1	0	2	8:08
T. MooreLW · #12	1	0	1	5	2	1	0	18:18
A. PanarinLW · #10	0	2	2	4	0	0	0	19:23
T. WardRW · #52	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	8:10
J. WrightRW · #53	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	12:52

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AndersonD · #44	0	1	1	1	2	2	0	23:05
C. CeciD · #5	0	0	-1	0	1	2	0	18:03
B. ClarkeD · #92	0	1	3	1	0	4	0	18:07
D. DoughtyD · #8	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	23:20
B. DumoulinD · #2	0	0	-1	0	0	3	0	17:27
J. EdmundsonD · #6	0	1	3	4	0	1	0	20:03

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. ForsbergG · #31	25	1	24	.960	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

VAN

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

LA leads series 3-0

Nov 30

VAN1@

LA2

Mar 27

LA4@

VAN0

Apr 10

VAN1@

LA4today

Apr 15

LA3@

VAN4

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

VAN+23530%

LA-29074%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LA -1.5↗SpreadBet LA -1.5↗

Line movement · 83 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

LA beat VAN 4-1. A. Kempe led the way — 2 G · 2 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
VAN	1	0	0	1
LA	2	1	1	4

Period scoring

VAN won 0 · LA won 3

VAN

Play-by-play · 289 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
VAN 1·LA 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
VAN 1·LA 4
3rd·19:57
Anze Kopitar shot blocked by Filip Hronek
·
VAN 1·LA 4
3rd·19:56
Jake DeBrusk Wrist Shot saved by Anton Forsberg
·
VAN 1·LA 4
3rd·19:51
Brock Boeser Slap Shot Wide Left
·
VAN 1·LA 4
3rd·19:39
Takeaway by Anze Kopitar
VAN 1·LA 4
3rd·19:29
Brock Boeser shot blocked by Cody Ceci
·
VAN 1·LA 4
3rd·19:17
Jake DeBrusk shot blocked by Cody Ceci
·
VAN 1·LA 4
3rd·19:12
Filip Hronek Wrist Shot saved by Anton Forsberg
·
VAN 1·LA 4
3rd·18:53
Alex Laferriere shot blocked by Zeev Buium
·
VAN 1·LA 4
3rd·18:52
Giveaway by Liam Ohgren
VAN 1·LA 4
3rd·18:32
Teddy Blueger Wrist Shot saved by Anton Forsberg
·
VAN 1·LA 4
3rd·18:22
Teddy Blueger hit Quinton Byfield
·
VAN 1·LA 4
3rd·18:11
Scott Laughton faceoff won against Teddy Blueger
·
VAN 1·LA 4
3rd·18:11
Goalie Stopped
VAN 1·LA 4
3rd·18:09
Brock Boeser Wrist Shot saved by Anton Forsberg
·
VAN 1·LA 4
3rd·18:07
Giveaway by Artemi Panarin
VAN 1·LA 4
3rd·17:39
Giveaway by Joel Edmundson
VAN 1·LA 4
3rd·17:30
Aatu Räty hit Joel Edmundson
·
VAN 1·LA 4
3rd·17:25
Anze Kopitar faceoff won against Aatu Räty
·
VAN 1·LA 4
3rd·17:25
Icing
VAN 1·LA 4
3rd·17:19
Giveaway by Drew O'Connor
VAN 1·LA 4
3rd·17:04
Elias Pettersson shot blocked by Joel Edmundson
· ·
VAN 1·LA 4
3rd·17:04
Giveaway by Joel Edmundson
VAN 1·LA 4
3rd·16:59
Anze Kopitar faceoff won against Aatu Räty
·
VAN 1·LA 4
3rd·16:59
Goalie Stopped
VAN 1·LA 4
3rd·16:54
Jake DeBrusk shot blocked by Mikey Anderson
·
VAN 1·LA 4
3rd·16:52
Filip Hronek shot blocked by Mikey Anderson
·
VAN 1·LA 4
3rd·16:31
Marco Rossi Wrist Shot Above Crossbar
·
VAN 1·LA 4
3rd·16:18
Quinton Byfield faceoff won against Aatu Räty
·
VAN 1·LA 4

Betting line

LA -1.5·O/U 6.5·VAN +235/LA -290

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

os Angeles Kings held off Vancouver Canucks, 4–1.

LA -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

67.6%

ensemble · LA favored

Elo Static
67.6%
P(LA win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
67.6%
P(LA win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
67.6%
P(LA win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+235

Close price

+235

Open no-vig

28.6%

Close no-vig

28.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in VAN at LA?: The model favors VAN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Vancouver CanucksLos Angeles Kings

Elsewhere in the NHL