Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in FLA at OTT?

The model favors FLA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4OTT

FLA

37-38-4

OTT

42-27-10

NHLThu, Apr 9FinalSeriesFLA wins series 3-1VegasOTT -395

FLA · top performer

Jesper Boqvist

C · #70

1Points

—

SOG

OTT · top performer

Fabian Zetterlund

LW · #20

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BennettC · #9	0	0	-2	3	1	1	0	17:44
J. BoqvistC · #70	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	15:59
N. FooteLW · #25	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	11:56
A.J. GreerLW · #10	0	1	1	1	2	2	0	15:54
N. GregorLW · #18	0	0	-1	0	1	1	0	12:32
V. HinostrozaC · #24	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	12:20
L. KuninC · #71	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	12:10
E. LuostarinenC · #27	0	1	0	3	2	0	0	18:53
T. NosekLW · #92	0	0	-1	1	3	1	0	13:51
M. SamoskevichRW · #11	0	0	-2	2	0	0	0	18:19
C. SchwindtRW · #79	0	0	-1	1	4	0	0	14:09
C. VerhaegheC · #23	0	0	-2	1	1	0	0	18:15

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AlscherD · #4	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	19:28
M. BenningD · #20	0	0	-2	0	0	0	0	17:22
T. BjornfotD · #22	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	19:54
G. ForslingD · #42	0	0	-3	1	0	4	2	27:05
L. JanssonD · #54	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	13:37
D. SebrangoD · #6	0	0	0	3	3	1	0	20:24

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BobrovskyG · #72	25	4	21	.840	59:12

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AmadioRW · #22	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	17:04
D. BathersonRW · #19	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	13:46
N. CousinsC · #21	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	14:31
D. CozensC · #24	0	1	0	2	1	0	0	15:51
L. EllerC · #89	0	1	2	0	1	0	0	13:18
W. FoegeleLW · #37	0	0	2	1	3	1	0	11:18
C. GirouxRW · #28	1	0	1	3	0	1	0	15:12
R. GreigC · #71	0	0	1	2	2	1	0	16:48
S. PintoC · #12	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	15:09
T. StutzleC · #18	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	16:49
B. TkachukLW · #7	0	1	0	1	2	0	2	17:13
F. ZetterlundLW · #20	2	0	2	2	1	2	0	11:48

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. ChabotD · #72	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	21:16
N. MatinpaloD · #33	0	0	1	1	4	1	0	17:09
J. SandersonD · #85	0	2	2	2	0	3	0	22:22
J. SpenceD · #10	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	19:23
L. ThomsonD · #60	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	16:31
A. ZubD · #2	1	0	2	3	0	2	0	22:32

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. UllmarkG · #35	23	1	22	.957	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

FLA

Away

Stat

OTT

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

100.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

FLA wins series 3-1

Oct 11

OTT2@

FLA6

Jan 11

FLA3@

OTT2

Mar 31

OTT3@

FLA6

Apr 9

FLA1@

OTT5today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OTT -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

FLA+31024%

OTT-39580%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗

Line movement · 88 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

OTT beat FLA 5-1. F. Zetterlund led the way — 2 G · 2 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
FLA	0	0	1	1
OTT	2	0	3	5

Period scoring

FLA won 0 · OTT won 2

FLA

OTT

Play-by-play · 307 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
FLA 1·OTT 5
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
FLA 1·OTT 5
3rd·19:50
Shane Pinto faceoff won against Eetu Luostarinen
·
FLA 1·OTT 5
3rd·19:50
Goalie Stopped
FLA 1·OTT 5
3rd·19:47
Jesper Boqvist Wrist Shot saved by Linus Ullmark
·
FLA 1·OTT 5
3rd·19:43
Eetu Luostarinen faceoff won against Ridly Greig
·
FLA 1·OTT 5
3rd·19:43
Goalie Stopped
FLA 1·OTT 5
3rd·19:41
Ludvig Jansson Wrist Shot saved by Linus Ullmark
·
FLA 1·OTT 5
3rd·19:11
Eetu Luostarinen faceoff won against Lars Eller
·
FLA 1·OTT 5
3rd·19:11
High Stick
FLA 1·OTT 5
3rd·19:07
Donovan Sebrango Wrist Shot High and Wide Left
·
FLA 1·OTT 5
3rd·19:05
Nick Cousins hit Noah Gregor
·
FLA 1·OTT 5
3rd·18:48
Donovan Sebrango Wrist Shot saved by Linus Ullmark
·
FLA 1·OTT 5
3rd·18:46
Cole Schwindt faceoff won against Dylan Cozens
·
FLA 1·OTT 5
3rd·18:46
Puck in Benches
FLA 1·OTT 5
3rd·18:04
Takeaway by Vinnie Hinostroza
FLA 1·OTT 5
3rd·17:48
Lars Eller faceoff won against Luke Kunin
·
FLA 1·OTT 5
3rd·17:48
Puck in Benches
FLA 1·OTT 5
3rd·17:12
Cole Schwindt hit Nikolas Matinpalo
·
FLA 1·OTT 5
3rd·17:10
Michael Amadio hit Tobias Bjornfot
·
FLA 1·OTT 5
3rd·17:02
Cole Schwindt faceoff won against Shane Pinto
·
FLA 1·OTT 5
3rd·17:02
Fabian Zetterlund Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: none
FLA 1·OTT 5
3rd·16:58
Giveaway by Vinnie Hinostroza
FLA 1·OTT 4
3rd·16:57
Warren Foegele hit Marek Alscher
·
FLA 1·OTT 4
3rd·16:43
Lars Eller faceoff won against Luke Kunin
·
FLA 1·OTT 4
3rd·16:43
Claude Giroux Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: none
FLA 1·OTT 4
3rd·16:40
Giveaway by Mackie Samoskevich
FLA 1·OTT 3
3rd·16:29
Ridly Greig Backhand Wide Right
FLA 1·OTT 3
3rd·16:19
Gustav Forsling shot blocked by Jake Sanderson
·
FLA 1·OTT 3
3rd·15:55
Claude Giroux faceoff won against Eetu Luostarinen
·
FLA 1·OTT 3

Betting line

OTT -1.5·O/U 6.5·FLA +310/OTT -395

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ttawa Senators held off Florida Panthers, 5–1.

OTT -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Tim Stützle · OTT17:000.6154.1%54.7%17:00 TOI · 0.61 iXG · 54.1% CF · 54.7% xGF
Ridly Greig · OTT17:000.5953.1%65.6%17:00 TOI · 0.59 iXG · 53.1% CF · 65.6% xGF
Jesper Boqvist · NJD16:120.3831.0%36.1%16:12 TOI · 0.38 iXG · 31.0% CF · 36.1% xGF
Dylan Cozens · OTT16:000.3763.0%77.3%16:00 TOI · 0.37 iXG · 63.0% CF · 77.3% xGF
Sam Bennett · FLA17:480.3458.3%41.6%17:48 TOI · 0.34 iXG · 58.3% CF · 41.6% xGF
Michael Amadio · OTT17:180.2850.0%52.6%17:18 TOI · 0.28 iXG · 50.0% CF · 52.6% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Linus Ullmark · OTT22–1.957+0.8322–1 · .957 SV% · +0.83 GSAx
Sergei Bobrovsky · FLA21–4.840-1.4521–4 · .840 SV% · -1.45 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.4%

ensemble · OTT favored

Elo Static
63.4%
P(OTT win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
63.4%
P(OTT win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
63.4%
P(OTT win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+310

Close price

+310

Open no-vig

23.4%

Close no-vig

23.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in FLA at OTT?: The model favors FLA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Florida PanthersOttawa Senators

Elsewhere in the NHL