Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SEA at LAD?

The model favors LAD, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Dodgers: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 30, 2026

FINAL+4LAD

SEA

53-57

LAD

69-40

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California

52,378 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

LAD spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

LAD no-vig %

58.3%

open 58.3%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.9%

ensemble · LAD favored

Elo Static
64.1%
P(LAD win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
64.0%
P(LAD win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
64.0%
P(LAD win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.05 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.17

CLV pp

Open price

-156

Close price

-157

Open no-vig

58.3%

Close no-vig

58.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SEA at LAD?: The model favors LAD, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+16.0pp

best edge · SEA · DraftKings

SEA

★ best

+369DraftKings

edge +16.0pp · implied 20.0%

LAD

no live price

Book	SEA	LAD	Best edge
DraftKings	+369★	-570	+16.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

LAD vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

129

projections · 105 high confidence

Strikeouts

Tarik SkubalLAD
7.5± 2.8medium
Logan GilbertSEA
6.7± 2.0high
Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
6.1± 2.4high

Hits

Freddie FreemanLAD
1.5± 0.9high
Shohei OhtaniLAD
1.3± 0.8high
Cole YoungSEA
1.3± 1.2high

Total bases

Shohei OhtaniLAD
2.4± 2.3high
Teoscar HernandezLAD
2.0± 2.3high
Cole YoungSEA
2.0± 1.7high

RBIs

Andy PagesLAD
0.7± 1.2high
Shohei OhtaniLAD
0.7± 1.1high
Cal RaleighSEA
0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

Bryan WooSEA
3.2± 2.4high
Kris BubicLAD
2.6± 2.5low
Roki SasakiLAD
2.6± 2.7medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

SEA

league avg

LAD

.687

OPS

.720

▶

.769

.310

OBP

.318

▶

.339

3.98

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.07

3.78

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.71

1.19

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.15

8.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

SEA 2 · LAD 6 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked LAD +14pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SEA	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2
LAD	2	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	6

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Team pages

Seattle MarinersLos Angeles Dodgers

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. Young2B	.261	5	1	2	0	0	0	0
R. ArozarenaLF	.283	4	1	3	1	0	1	0
D. CanzoneDH	.261	3	0	0	0	0	2	3
J. RodriguezCF	.251	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Naylor1B	.263	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
C. RaleighC	.163	3	0	0	1	0	1	2
L. RaleyRF	.225	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
We. Wilson3B	.214	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
C. EmersonSS	.196	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. RefsnyderDH	.140	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
Team		35	2	8	2	0	5	11

Player

.261

.283

.261

.251

.263

.163

.225

.214

.196

.140

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. WooSP	5.0	5	5	5	2	8	91
A. HoppeRP	2.0	1	1	1	0	3	35
C. WilcoxRP	1.0	2	0	0	1	2	19
Team	8.0	8	6	6	3	13	145

Player

B. WooSP

5.0

A. HoppeRP

2.0

C. WilcoxRP

1.0

Team

8.0

145

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. Edman2B	.321	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
A. PagesCF	.269	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
F. Freeman1B	.301	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
M. Muncy3B	.253	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
M. BettsSS	.232	4	0	2	2	0	0	1
K. TuckerRF	.235	3	1	0	0	0	1	2
T. HernándezLF	.252	3	2	2	1	1	1	0
D. RushingC	.257	4	1	1	3	1	0	3
E. Hernández1B	.571	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		32	6	8	6	2	3	13

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. SasakiSP	5.1	5	2	2	3	7	90
J. DreyerRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	8
E. HenriquezRP	0.1	1	0	0	1	0	19
T. ScottRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	27
E. DiazRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	18
Team	9.0	8	2	2	5	11	162

Team

SEA

LAD

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

LAD vs SEA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

LAD vs SEA.

3 sub-models, blended.