NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3CBJ

CBJ

33-21-10

39-20-4

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLTue, Mar 10FinalSeriesCBJ win series 3-0VegasTB -238

Recap · NHL

olumbus Blue Jackets went into Tampa Bay Lightning and beat them, 5–2.

CBJ +1.5 cashed (TB lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CBJ · top performer

Conor Garland

RW · #83

2Points

—

SOG

TB · top performer

Anthony Cirelli

C · #71

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

CBJ33-21-10

TB39-20-4

CBJ33-21-10TB39-20-4

CBJ

33-21-10

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

39-20-4

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

CBJ win series 3-0

Oct 18

TB2@

CBJ3

Jan 25

TB5@

CBJ8

Mar 10

CBJ5@

TB2today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CBJ+19534%

TB-23870%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CBJ beat TB 5-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
CBJ	0	3	2	5
TB	1	1	0	2

Period scoring

CBJ won 2 · TB won 1

CBJ

Play-by-play · 302 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
CBJ 5·TB 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CBJ 5·TB 2
3rd·18:56
Jake Christiansen Wrist Shot High and Wide Right
·
CBJ 5·TB 2
3rd·18:42
Takeaway by Brayden Point
CBJ 5·TB 2
3rd·18:33
Jake Christiansen shot blocked by Ryan McDonagh
·
CBJ 5·TB 2
3rd·17:22
Dante Fabbro Snap Shot Wide Left
·
CBJ 5·TB 2
3rd·17:20
Boone Jenner faceoff won against Anthony Cirelli
·
CBJ 5·TB 2
3rd·17:20
Icing
CBJ 5·TB 2
3rd·17:09
Giveaway by Mathieu Olivier
CBJ 5·TB 2
3rd·17:06
J.J. Moser hit Mason Marchment
·
CBJ 5·TB 2
3rd·16:38
Cole Sillinger hit Zemgus Girgensons
·
CBJ 5·TB 2
3rd·16:07
Pontus Holmberg Wrist Shot saved by Elvis Merzlikins
·
CBJ 5·TB 2
3rd·15:28
Yanni Gourde faceoff won against Sean Monahan
·
CBJ 5·TB 2
3rd·15:28
Dante Fabbro Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Elvis Merzlikins (2)
·
CBJ 5·TB 2
3rd·15:10
Giveaway by Danton Heinen
CBJ 4·TB 2
3rd·15:06
Jake Guentzel faceoff won against Boone Jenner
·
CBJ 4·TB 2
3rd·15:06
Puck Frozen - Goalie
CBJ 4·TB 2
3rd·14:43
Charlie Coyle faceoff won against Conor Geekie
·
CBJ 4·TB 2
3rd·14:43
Off-side
CBJ 4·TB 2
3rd·14:04
Nikita Kucherov Snap Shot Wide Left
·
CBJ 4·TB 2
3rd·13:59
Giveaway by Ivan Provorov
CBJ 4·TB 2
3rd·13:39
Jake Guentzel faceoff won against Adam Fantilli
·
CBJ 4·TB 2
3rd·13:39
Goalie Stopped
CBJ 4·TB 2
3rd·13:37
Isac Lundeström Snap Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
CBJ 4·TB 2
3rd·13:33
Declan Carlile hit Danton Heinen
·
CBJ 4·TB 2
3rd·13:26
Charlie Coyle faceoff won against Jake Guentzel
·
CBJ 4·TB 2
3rd·13:26
Puck in Netting
CBJ 4·TB 2
3rd·13:09
Danton Heinen hit Brandon Hagel
·
CBJ 4·TB 2
3rd·12:52
Giveaway by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
CBJ 4·TB 2
3rd·12:42
Anthony Cirelli faceoff won against Charlie Coyle
·
CBJ 4·TB 2

Team stats

CBJ

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 6.5·CBJ +195/TB -238

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 skaters with EDGE

Ivan ProvorovCBJ · D
DIST MI299.999+
Kirill MarchenkoCBJ · RW
BURSTS30199
Zach WerenskiCBJ · D
DIST MI289.198
Adam FantilliCBJ · C
DIST MI256.696
Denton MateychukCBJ · D
BURSTS7792

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+195

Close price

+195

Open no-vig

32.5%

Close no-vig

32.5%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

TB vs CBJ.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

135

projections · 129 high confidence

Shots on goal

Nikita KucherovTB
3.5± 2.3high
Zach WerenskiCBJ
3.4± 2.5high
Brandon HagelTB
3.2± 1.4high

Goals

Brandon HagelTB
0.6± 0.8high
Jake GuentzelTB
0.4± 0.5high
Adam FantilliCBJ
0.3± 0.5high

Points

Nikita KucherovTB
1.1± 0.9high
Brandon HagelTB
1.0± 0.9high
Jake GuentzelTB
1.0± 0.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands