Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CBJ at TB?

The model favors CBJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3CBJ

CBJ

33-21-10

39-20-4

NHLTue, Mar 10FinalSeriesCBJ win series 3-0VegasTB -238

CBJ · top performer

Conor Garland

RW · #83

2Points

—

SOG

TB · top performer

J.J. Moser

D · #90

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CoyleC · #3	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	20:36
A. FantilliC · #19	0	1	-1	5	2	0	0	18:39
C. GarlandRW · #83	2	0	1	6	1	0	0	11:39
D. HeinenLW · #43	0	0	0	0	4	1	2	12:32
B. JennerC · #38	0	0	0	2	1	4	2	14:39
K. JohnsonC · #91	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	12:32
I. LundestromC · #21	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	13:39
K. MarchenkoRW · #86	1	0	-1	2	0	0	2	19:00
M. MarchmentLW · #17	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	18:33
S. MonahanC · #23	0	2	1	5	0	1	0	15:53
M. OlivierRW · #24	0	0	1	2	3	1	0	11:45
C. SillingerC · #4	0	0	-2	0	3	1	7	10:42

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChristiansenD · #2	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	11:56
D. FabbroD · #15	1	0	-1	1	1	3	0	19:09
D. MateychukD · #5	0	1	0	0	1	1	0	18:44
I. ProvorovD · #9	1	0	1	2	1	1	0	22:05
D. SeversonD · #78	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	19:29
Z. WerenskiD · #8	0	2	0	0	0	1	0	22:59

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. MerzlikinsG · #90	18	2	16	.889	59:29

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. BjorkstrandRW · #22	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	14:49
A. CirelliC · #71	0	1	0	0	1	1	0	16:02
C. GeekieC · #14	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	9:31
Z. GirgensonsC · #28	0	0	-1	1	2	0	2	12:32
G. GoncalvesC · #93	1	0	0	1	3	1	2	11:22
Y. GourdeC · #37	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	15:31
J. GuentzelC · #59	0	0	-2	2	0	1	2	18:16
B. HagelLW · #38	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	19:23
P. HolmbergRW · #29	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	9:14
N. KucherovRW · #86	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	20:32
C. PerryRW · #10	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	13:01
B. PointC · #21	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	18:33

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. CarlileD · #67	0	0	0	0	6	0	0	20:35
C. D'AstousD · #51	0	0	-1	3	2	0	0	23:34
V. HedmanD · #77	0	1	-1	2	0	1	0	22:11
R. McDonaghD · #27	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	20:21
J.J. MoserD · #90	1	0	1	2	5	0	9	18:20
S. SantiniD · #16	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	9:21

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. VasilevskiyG · #88	31	4	27	.871	59:51

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

CBJ

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

CBJ win series 3-0

Oct 18

TB2@

CBJ3

Jan 25

TB5@

CBJ8

Mar 10

CBJ5@

TB2today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CBJ+19534%

TB-23870%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 22 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CBJ beat TB 5-2. C. Garland led the way — 2 G · 6 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
CBJ	0	3	2	5
TB	1	1	0	2

Period scoring

CBJ won 2 · TB won 1

CBJ

Play-by-play · 302 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
CBJ 5·TB 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CBJ 5·TB 2
3rd·18:56
Jake Christiansen Wrist Shot High and Wide Right
·
CBJ 5·TB 2
3rd·18:42
Takeaway by Brayden Point
CBJ 5·TB 2
3rd·18:33
Jake Christiansen shot blocked by Ryan McDonagh
·
CBJ 5·TB 2
3rd·17:22
Dante Fabbro Snap Shot Wide Left
·
CBJ 5·TB 2
3rd·17:20
Boone Jenner faceoff won against Anthony Cirelli
·
CBJ 5·TB 2
3rd·17:20
Icing
CBJ 5·TB 2
3rd·17:09
Giveaway by Mathieu Olivier
CBJ 5·TB 2
3rd·17:06
J.J. Moser hit Mason Marchment
·
CBJ 5·TB 2
3rd·16:38
Cole Sillinger hit Zemgus Girgensons
·
CBJ 5·TB 2
3rd·16:07
Pontus Holmberg Wrist Shot saved by Elvis Merzlikins
·
CBJ 5·TB 2
3rd·15:28
Yanni Gourde faceoff won against Sean Monahan
·
CBJ 5·TB 2
3rd·15:28
Dante Fabbro Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Elvis Merzlikins (2)
·
CBJ 5·TB 2
3rd·15:10
Giveaway by Danton Heinen
CBJ 4·TB 2
3rd·15:06
Jake Guentzel faceoff won against Boone Jenner
·
CBJ 4·TB 2
3rd·15:06
Puck Frozen - Goalie
CBJ 4·TB 2
3rd·14:43
Charlie Coyle faceoff won against Conor Geekie
·
CBJ 4·TB 2
3rd·14:43
Off-side
CBJ 4·TB 2
3rd·14:04
Nikita Kucherov Snap Shot Wide Left
·
CBJ 4·TB 2
3rd·13:59
Giveaway by Ivan Provorov
CBJ 4·TB 2
3rd·13:39
Jake Guentzel faceoff won against Adam Fantilli
·
CBJ 4·TB 2
3rd·13:39
Goalie Stopped
CBJ 4·TB 2
3rd·13:37
Isac Lundeström Snap Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
CBJ 4·TB 2
3rd·13:33
Declan Carlile hit Danton Heinen
·
CBJ 4·TB 2
3rd·13:26
Charlie Coyle faceoff won against Jake Guentzel
·
CBJ 4·TB 2
3rd·13:26
Puck in Netting
CBJ 4·TB 2
3rd·13:09
Danton Heinen hit Brandon Hagel
·
CBJ 4·TB 2
3rd·12:52
Giveaway by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
CBJ 4·TB 2
3rd·12:42
Anthony Cirelli faceoff won against Charlie Coyle
·
CBJ 4·TB 2

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 6.5·CBJ +195/TB -238

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

olumbus Blue Jackets went into Tampa Bay Lightning and beat them, 5–2.

CBJ +1.5 cashed (TB lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Sean Monahan · CBJ15:541.0941.2%63.9%15:54 TOI · 1.09 iXG · 41.2% CF · 63.9% xGF
Adam Fantilli · CBJ18:360.9371.0%82.4%18:36 TOI · 0.93 iXG · 71.0% CF · 82.4% xGF
Conor Garland · CBJ11:420.7466.7%95.0%11:42 TOI · 0.74 iXG · 66.7% CF · 95.0% xGF
Corey Perry · TBL13:060.4651.9%34.9%13:06 TOI · 0.46 iXG · 51.9% CF · 34.9% xGF
Isac Lundeström · CBJ13:540.4050.0%83.6%13:54 TOI · 0.40 iXG · 50.0% CF · 83.6% xGF
Mathieu Olivier · CBJ11:480.2657.9%77.1%11:48 TOI · 0.26 iXG · 57.9% CF · 77.1% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Andrei Vasilevskiy · TBL27–4.871+0.7427–4 · .871 SV% · +0.74 GSAx
Elvis Merzlikins · CBJ16–2.889-0.7016–2 · .889 SV% · -0.70 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

64.7%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
64.7%
P(TB win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
64.7%
P(TB win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
64.7%
P(TB win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+195

Close price

+195

Open no-vig

32.5%

Close no-vig

32.5%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CBJ at TB?: The model favors CBJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Columbus Blue JacketsTampa Bay Lightning

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