Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CGY at NYR?

The model favors NYR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4NYR

CGY

25-32-7

NYR

26-30-8

NHLTue, Mar 10FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasNYR -125

CGY · top performer

Matt Coronato

RW · #27

0Points

—

SOG

NYR · top performer

Alexis Lafreniere

LW · #13

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BacklundC · #11	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	16:04
B. ColemanLW · #20	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	16:16
M. CoronatoRW · #27	0	0	0	6	1	0	0	17:26
J. FarabeeLW · #86	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	15:16
M. FrostC · #16	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	16:33
M. GridinRW · #92	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	13:53
A. KlapkaRW · #43	0	0	-1	2	9	0	0	11:26
V. OlofssonLW · #95	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	13:50
M. PospisilC · #76	0	0	-1	0	3	0	0	9:53
Y. SharangovichC · #17	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	16:31
R. StromeC · #22	0	0	-2	2	0	0	0	17:34
C. ZaryC · #47	0	0	-2	0	1	1	0	16:09

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. BahlD · #7	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	21:44
J. HanleyD · #44	0	0	-2	1	0	1	0	17:49
Y. KuznetsovD · #37	0	0	-1	0	0	2	0	17:01
O. MaattaD · #3	0	0	-1	2	0	1	2	21:46
B. PachalD · #94	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	17:28
Z. ParekhD · #19	0	0	-2	1	1	1	0	18:06

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. WolfG · #32	29	4	25	.862	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BrodzinskiC · #22	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	13:41
J. ChmelarRW · #49	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	7:39
W. CuylleLW · #50	0	0	0	2	5	1	0	16:00
A. EdstromC · #84	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	10:22
T. KartyeLW · #24	0	1	1	2	3	1	0	14:53
N. LabaC · #42	0	0	1	0	3	1	0	15:51
A. LafreniereLW · #13	3	0	2	5	0	0	0	18:38
J. ParssinenC · #71	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	7:31
G. PerreaultRW · #94	0	2	2	2	1	0	2	19:58
C. ShearyLW · #43	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	15:27
V. TrocheckC · #16	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	20:26
M. ZibanejadC · #93	0	2	2	2	0	0	0	18:45

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
W. BorgenD · #17	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	15:21
A. FoxD · #23	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	23:24
V. GavrikovD · #44	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	22:39
M. RobertsonD · #29	0	0	2	3	3	1	0	19:15
B. SchneiderD · #4	0	0	1	0	0	3	0	21:00
U. VaakanainenD · #18	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	15:26

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. QuickG · #32	21	0	21	1.000	59:44

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

CGY

Away

Stat

NYR

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

33.3

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Oct 27

NYR1@

CGY5

Mar 10

CGY0@

NYR4today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYR -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CGY+10549%

NYR-12556%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYR -1.5↗SpreadBet NYR -1.5↗

Line movement · 18 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NYR beat CGY 4-0. A. Lafreniere led the way — 3 G · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
CGY	0	0	0	0
NYR	1	2	1	4

Period scoring

CGY won 0 · NYR won 3

CGY

NYR

Play-by-play · 309 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
CGY 0·NYR 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CGY 0·NYR 4
3rd·19:26
Adam Klapka hit Urho Vaakanainen
·
CGY 0·NYR 4
3rd·19:03
Urho Vaakanainen Wrist Shot High and Wide Left
·
CGY 0·NYR 4
3rd·17:42
Noah Laba faceoff won against Mikael Backlund
·
CGY 0·NYR 4
3rd·17:42
Alexis Lafrenière Goal (18) Slap Shot, assists: Gabe Perreault (9), Urho Vaakanainen (5)
· ·
CGY 0·NYR 4
3rd·16:53
Vincent Trocheck Tip-In Wide Right
·
CGY 0·NYR 3
3rd·16:40
Takeaway by Matthew Robertson
CGY 0·NYR 3
3rd·16:33
Will Cuylle hit Kevin Bahl
·
CGY 0·NYR 3
3rd·16:04
Vincent Trocheck faceoff won against Morgan Frost
·
CGY 0·NYR 3
3rd·16:04
Off-side
CGY 0·NYR 3
3rd·15:58
Vincent Trocheck hit Yan Kuznetsov
·
CGY 0·NYR 3
3rd·15:37
Adam Edstrom Tip-In saved by Dustin Wolf
·
CGY 0·NYR 3
3rd·15:27
Mikael Backlund shot blocked by Adam Edstrom
·
CGY 0·NYR 3
3rd·15:21
Takeaway by Brayden Pachal
CGY 0·NYR 3
3rd·15:05
Matthew Robertson hit Adam Klapka
·
CGY 0·NYR 3
3rd·14:50
Adam Klapka hit Will Borgen
·
CGY 0·NYR 3
3rd·14:29
Adam Klapka hit Noah Laba
·
CGY 0·NYR 3
3rd·14:20
Victor Olofsson shot blocked by Adam Fox
·
CGY 0·NYR 3
3rd·14:01
Yegor Sharangovich hit Alexis Lafrenière
·
CGY 0·NYR 3
3rd·14:00
Alexis Lafrenière shot blocked by Yegor Sharangovich
·
CGY 0·NYR 3
3rd·13:46
Alexis Lafrenière Snap Shot saved by Dustin Wolf
·
CGY 0·NYR 3
3rd·13:34
Giveaway by Zayne Parekh
CGY 0·NYR 3
3rd·13:23
Matt Coronato Wrist Shot saved by Jonathan Quick
·
CGY 0·NYR 3
3rd·13:20
Yegor Sharangovich Snap Shot Above Crossbar
·
CGY 0·NYR 3
3rd·13:18
Giveaway by Alexis Lafrenière
CGY 0·NYR 3
3rd·13:12
Mika Zibanejad faceoff won against Matt Coronato
·
CGY 0·NYR 3
3rd·13:12
Puck in Netting
CGY 0·NYR 3
3rd·13:07
Giveaway by Zayne Parekh
CGY 0·NYR 3
3rd·12:52
Will Cuylle hit Matvei Gridin
·
CGY 0·NYR 3

Betting line

NYR -1.5·O/U 5.5·CGY +105/NYR -125

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ew York Rangers held off Calgary Flames, 4–0.

NYR -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Alexis Lafrenière · NYR18:420.8566.7%72.9%18:42 TOI · 0.85 iXG · 66.7% CF · 72.9% xGF
Matt Coronato · CGY17:360.7161.0%66.8%17:36 TOI · 0.71 iXG · 61.0% CF · 66.8% xGF
Ryan Strome · CGY17:420.4343.9%34.5%17:42 TOI · 0.43 iXG · 43.9% CF · 34.5% xGF
Adam Edstrom · NSH10:300.4241.7%44.2%10:30 TOI · 0.42 iXG · 41.7% CF · 44.2% xGF
Gabe Perreault · NYR20:000.3763.6%69.7%20:00 TOI · 0.37 iXG · 63.6% CF · 69.7% xGF
Adam Fox · NYR23:420.3452.3%56.2%23:42 TOI · 0.34 iXG · 52.3% CF · 56.2% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Jonathan Quick · NYR21–01.000+2.0221–0 · 1.000 SV% · +2.02 GSAx
Dustin Wolf · CGY25–4.862-1.3025–4 · .862 SV% · -1.30 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.7%

ensemble · NYR favored

Elo Static
57.7%
P(NYR win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
57.7%
P(NYR win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
57.7%
P(NYR win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-125

Close price

-125

Open no-vig

53.2%

Close no-vig

53.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CGY at NYR?: The model favors NYR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

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