NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4NYR

CGY

25-32-7

NYR

26-30-8

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLTue, Mar 10FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasNYR -125

Recap · NHL

ew York Rangers held off Calgary Flames, 4–0.

NYR -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CGY · top performer

Mikael Backlund

C · #11

0Points

—

SOG

NYR · top performer

Alexis Lafreniere

LW · #13

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

CGY25-32-7

NYR26-30-8

CGY25-32-7NYR26-30-8

CGY

25-32-7

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

NYR

26-30-8

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Oct 27

NYR1@

CGY5

Mar 10

CGY0@

NYR4today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYR -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CGY+10549%

NYR-12556%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYR -1.5↗SpreadBet NYR -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NYR beat CGY 4-0.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
CGY	0	0	0	0
NYR	1	2	1	4

Period scoring

CGY won 0 · NYR won 3

CGY

NYR

Play-by-play · 309 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
CGY 0·NYR 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CGY 0·NYR 4
3rd·19:26
Adam Klapka hit Urho Vaakanainen
·
CGY 0·NYR 4
3rd·19:03
Urho Vaakanainen Wrist Shot High and Wide Left
·
CGY 0·NYR 4
3rd·17:42
Noah Laba faceoff won against Mikael Backlund
·
CGY 0·NYR 4
3rd·17:42
Alexis Lafrenière Goal (18) Slap Shot, assists: Gabe Perreault (9), Urho Vaakanainen (5)
· ·
CGY 0·NYR 4
3rd·16:53
Vincent Trocheck Tip-In Wide Right
·
CGY 0·NYR 3
3rd·16:40
Takeaway by Matthew Robertson
CGY 0·NYR 3
3rd·16:33
Will Cuylle hit Kevin Bahl
·
CGY 0·NYR 3
3rd·16:04
Vincent Trocheck faceoff won against Morgan Frost
·
CGY 0·NYR 3
3rd·16:04
Off-side
CGY 0·NYR 3
3rd·15:58
Vincent Trocheck hit Yan Kuznetsov
·
CGY 0·NYR 3
3rd·15:37
Adam Edstrom Tip-In saved by Dustin Wolf
·
CGY 0·NYR 3
3rd·15:27
Mikael Backlund shot blocked by Adam Edstrom
·
CGY 0·NYR 3
3rd·15:21
Takeaway by Brayden Pachal
CGY 0·NYR 3
3rd·15:05
Matthew Robertson hit Adam Klapka
·
CGY 0·NYR 3
3rd·14:50
Adam Klapka hit Will Borgen
·
CGY 0·NYR 3
3rd·14:29
Adam Klapka hit Noah Laba
·
CGY 0·NYR 3
3rd·14:20
Victor Olofsson shot blocked by Adam Fox
·
CGY 0·NYR 3
3rd·14:01
Yegor Sharangovich hit Alexis Lafrenière
·
CGY 0·NYR 3
3rd·14:00
Alexis Lafrenière shot blocked by Yegor Sharangovich
·
CGY 0·NYR 3
3rd·13:46
Alexis Lafrenière Snap Shot saved by Dustin Wolf
·
CGY 0·NYR 3
3rd·13:34
Giveaway by Zayne Parekh
CGY 0·NYR 3
3rd·13:23
Matt Coronato Wrist Shot saved by Jonathan Quick
·
CGY 0·NYR 3
3rd·13:20
Yegor Sharangovich Snap Shot Above Crossbar
·
CGY 0·NYR 3
3rd·13:18
Giveaway by Alexis Lafrenière
CGY 0·NYR 3
3rd·13:12
Mika Zibanejad faceoff won against Matt Coronato
·
CGY 0·NYR 3
3rd·13:12
Puck in Netting
CGY 0·NYR 3
3rd·13:07
Giveaway by Zayne Parekh
CGY 0·NYR 3
3rd·12:52
Will Cuylle hit Matvei Gridin
·
CGY 0·NYR 3

Team stats

CGY

Away

Stat

NYR

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

33.3

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

NYR -1.5·O/U 5.5·CGY +105/NYR -125

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE

Adam EdstromNYR · C
SKATE MPH23.898
Yan KuznetsovCGY · D
SHOT MPH100.297
Vladislav GavrikovNYR · D
DIST MI263.494
Mikael BacklundCGY · C
SHOT MPH93.594
Noah LabaNYR · C
BURSTS17992

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.6%

ensemble · NYR favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYR win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYR win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYR win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-125

Close price

-125

Open no-vig

53.2%

Close no-vig

53.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

NYR vs CGY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

144

projections · 120 high confidence

Shots on goal

Blake ColemanCGY
2.7± 1.6high
Matt CoronatoCGY
2.3± 1.4high
Mika ZibanejadNYR
2.2± 1.0high

Goals

Blake ColemanCGY
0.4± 0.7high
Morgan FrostCGY
0.4± 0.7high
Gabe PerreaultNYR
0.4± 1.0high

Points

Adam FoxNYR
1.2± 1.0high
J.T. MillerNYR
1.0± 1.0high
Mika ZibanejadNYR
0.9± 1.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands