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FINAL+1NYI
NYI

NYI

37-23-5

43
STL

STL

25-29-10

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLTue, Mar 10FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasNYI -125

Recap · NHL

ew York Islanders went into St. Louis Blues and beat them, 4–3 in overtime.

STL +1.5 cashed (NYI won by 1). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYI · top performer

NYI
Mathew Barzal

Mathew Barzal

C · #13

3Points

1

G

2

A

—

SOG

STL · top performer

STL
Jimmy Snuggerud

Jimmy Snuggerud

RW · #21

3Points

1

G

2

A

—

SOG

NHL · New York Islanders at St. Louis Blues · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT
4
3
NYI37-23-5STL25-29-10
NYI

NYI

37-23-5

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
STL

STL

25-29-10

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

PIM

8

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Nov 22STLSTL2@NYINYI1
Mar 10NYINYI4@STLSTL3today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYI -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NYINYI-12556%
STLSTL+10549%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYI -1.5↗SpreadBet NYI -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NYI beat STL 4-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTT
NYI01214
STL12003

Period scoring

NYI won 2 · STL won 2

0
1

1

1
2

2

2
0

3

1
0

OT

NYI
STL

Play-by-play · 290 plays

period
event
player
  1. OT·2:11

    Game End

    NYI 4·STL 3

  2. OT·2:11

    End of OT

    NYI 4·STL 3

  3. OT·2:11

    Mathew Barzal Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (17), Tony DeAngelo (26)

    · ·

    NYI 4·STL 3

  4. OT·1:49

    Jimmy Snuggerud Snap Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin

    ·

    NYI 3·STL 3

  5. OT·1:39

    Brayden Schenn Wrist Shot saved by Joel Hofer

    ·

    NYI 3·STL 3

  6. OT·1:20

    Brayden Schenn faceoff won against Jonathan Drouin

    ·

    NYI 3·STL 3

  7. OT·1:20

    Off-side

    NYI 3·STL 3

  8. OT·0:41

    Bo Horvat Slap Shot saved by Joel Hofer

    ·

    NYI 3·STL 3

  9. OT·0:30

    Pius Suter faceoff won against Bo Horvat

    ·

    NYI 3·STL 3

  10. OT·0:30

    Off-side

    NYI 3·STL 3

  11. OT·0:00

    Bo Horvat faceoff won against Jack Finley

    ·

    NYI 3·STL 3

  12. OT·0:00

    Start of Overtime

    NYI 3·STL 3

  13. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    NYI 3·STL 3

  14. 3rd·19:58

    Mathew Barzal Wrist Shot saved by Joel Hofer

    ·

    NYI 3·STL 3

  15. 3rd·19:54

    Emil Heineman Wrist Shot saved by Joel Hofer

    ·

    NYI 3·STL 3

  16. 3rd·19:50

    Dylan Holloway hit Matthew Schaefer

    ·

    NYI 3·STL 3

  17. 3rd·19:50

    Giveaway by Matthew Schaefer

    NYI 3·STL 3

  18. 3rd·19:43

    Matthew Schaefer Wrist Shot saved by Joel Hofer

    ·

    NYI 3·STL 3

  19. 3rd·19:42

    Simon Holmstrom Backhand saved by Joel Hofer

    ·

    NYI 3·STL 3

  20. 3rd·19:14

    Giveaway by Jimmy Snuggerud

    NYI 3·STL 3

  21. 3rd·17:47

    Jordan Kyrou faceoff won against Jean-Gabriel Pageau

    ·

    NYI 3·STL 3

  22. 3rd·17:47

    Goalie Stopped

    NYI 3·STL 3

  23. 3rd·17:44

    Logan Mailloux Wrist Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin

    ·

    NYI 3·STL 3

  24. 3rd·16:54

    Pius Suter faceoff won against Brayden Schenn

    ·

    NYI 3·STL 3

  25. 3rd·16:54

    Goalie Stopped

    NYI 3·STL 3

  26. 3rd·16:52

    Jimmy Snuggerud Wrist Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin

    ·

    NYI 3·STL 3

  27. 3rd·16:43

    Matthew Schaefer Wrist Shot saved by Joel Hofer

    ·

    NYI 3·STL 3

  28. 3rd·16:36

    Otto Stenberg hit Matthew Schaefer

    ·

    NYI 3·STL 3

  29. 3rd·16:21

    Emil Heineman hit Otto Stenberg

    ·

    NYI 3·STL 3

  30. 3rd·16:13

    Takeaway by Philip Broberg

    NYI 3·STL 3

Team stats

NYI

Away

Stat

STL

Home

49

Shots

23

50.0

PCT

0.0

4

PIM

8

23

Faceoffs W

22

12

Blocks

12

12

Giveaways

13

4

Takeaways

5

Betting line

NYI -1.5·O/U 5.5·NYI -125/STL +105

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Matthew SchaeferNYI · D
    BURSTS26999+
  • Ryan PulockNYI · D
    SHOT MPH103.099+
  • Mathew BarzalNYI · C
    DIST MI274.399
  • Emil HeinemanNYI · LW
    SHOT MPH97.399
  • Philip BrobergSTL · D
    BURSTS15898

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · STL favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(STL win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(STL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

STL vs NYI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

135

projections · 120 high confidence

Shots on goal

  • Dylan HollowaySTL
    3.1± 1.3high
  • Bo HorvatNYI
    2.9± 0.9high
  • Kyle PalmieriNYI
    2.7± 1.6high

Goals

  • Robert ThomasSTL
    0.7± 1.2high
  • Dylan HollowaySTL
    0.4± 0.8high
  • Jimmy SnuggerudSTL
    0.4± 0.7high

Points

  • Robert ThomasSTL
    1.4± 1.1high
  • Dylan HollowaySTL
    1.2± 1.1high
  • Jimmy SnuggerudSTL
    1.0± 1.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR