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FINAL+3BUF
SJ

SJ

30-26-6

36
BUF

BUF

40-19-6

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLTue, Mar 10FinalSeriesBUF leads series 1-0VegasBUF -205

Recap · NHL

uffalo Sabres held off San Jose Sharks, 6–3.

BUF -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SJ · top performer

SJ
Alexander Wennberg

Alexander Wennberg

C · #21

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

BUF · top performer

BUF
Jack Quinn

Jack Quinn

RW · #22

4Points

3

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · San Jose Sharks at Buffalo Sabres · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
3
6
SJ30-26-6BUF40-19-6
SJ

SJ

30-26-6

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
BUF

BUF

40-19-6

6
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

24

PIM

18

Season series

BUF leads series 1-0

Mar 10SJSJ3@BUFBUF6today
Mar 20BUFBUF5@SJSJ0

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BUF -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

SJSJ+17037%
BUFBUF-20567%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗

Line movement · 12 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BUF beat SJ 6-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
SJ1113
BUF2226

Period scoring

SJ won 0 · BUF won 3

1
2

1

1
2

2

1
2

3

SJ
BUF

Play-by-play · 308 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    SJ 3·BUF 6

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    SJ 3·BUF 6

  3. 3rd·19:32

    Philipp Kurashev hit Beck Malenstyn

    ·

    SJ 3·BUF 6

  4. 3rd·18:47

    Barclay Goodrow Slap Shot saved by Alex Lyon

    ·

    SJ 3·BUF 6

  5. 3rd·18:44

    Shakir Mukhamadullin Backhand Wide Right

    ·

    SJ 3·BUF 6

  6. 3rd·18:40

    Giveaway by Mattias Samuelsson

    SJ 3·BUF 6

  7. 3rd·18:19

    Tyler Toffoli Wrist Shot saved by Alex Lyon

    ·

    SJ 3·BUF 6

  8. 3rd·17:41

    Noah Ostlund Tip-In Wide Left

    ·

    SJ 3·BUF 6

  9. 3rd·17:38

    Michael Misa faceoff won against Noah Ostlund

    ·

    SJ 3·BUF 6

  10. 3rd·17:38

    Goalie Stopped

    SJ 3·BUF 6

  11. 3rd·17:36

    Michael Kesselring Wrist Shot saved by Yaroslav Askarov

    ·

    SJ 3·BUF 6

  12. 3rd·17:31

    Giveaway by Zack Ostapchuk

    SJ 3·BUF 6

  13. 3rd·17:28

    Peyton Krebs Wrist Shot saved by Yaroslav Askarov

    ·

    SJ 3·BUF 6

  14. 3rd·17:26

    Shakir Mukhamadullin hit Beck Malenstyn

    ·

    SJ 3·BUF 6

  15. 3rd·17:14

    Adam Gaudette faceoff won against Sam Carrick

    ·

    SJ 3·BUF 6

  16. 3rd·17:14

    Jack Quinn Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (36)

    ·

    SJ 3·BUF 6

  17. 3rd·16:57

    Jack Quinn shot blocked by William Eklund

    ·

    SJ 3·BUF 5

  18. 3rd·16:25

    Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg

    ·

    SJ 3·BUF 5

  19. 3rd·16:25

    Puck in Benches

    SJ 3·BUF 5

  20. 3rd·16:17

    Alexander Wennberg faceoff won against Tage Thompson

    ·

    SJ 3·BUF 5

  21. 3rd·16:17

    Icing

    SJ 3·BUF 5

  22. 3rd·16:07

    Michael Misa Tip-In Wide Right

    ·

    SJ 3·BUF 5

  23. 3rd·16:01

    Zach Benson hit Vincent Desharnais

    ·

    SJ 3·BUF 5

  24. 3rd·15:57

    Sam Dickinson Snap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    SJ 3·BUF 5

  25. 3rd·15:45

    Giveaway by Alex Lyon

    SJ 3·BUF 5

  26. 3rd·14:51

    Takeaway by Peyton Krebs

    SJ 3·BUF 5

  27. 3rd·14:39

    Josh Norris faceoff won against Macklin Celebrini

    ·

    SJ 3·BUF 5

  28. 3rd·14:39

    Goalie Stopped

    SJ 3·BUF 5

  29. 3rd·14:37

    Collin Graf Wrist Shot saved by Alex Lyon

    ·

    SJ 3·BUF 5

  30. 3rd·14:13

    Giveaway by Rasmus Dahlin

    SJ 3·BUF 5

Team stats

SJ

Away

Stat

BUF

Home

20

Shots

26

33.3

PCT

0.0

24

PIM

18

27

Faceoffs W

28

16

Blocks

14

17

Giveaways

14

4

Takeaways

7

Betting line

BUF -1.5·O/U 6.5·SJ +170/BUF -205

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 skaters with EDGE
  • Ryan McLeodBUF · C
    BURSTS7299
  • Rasmus DahlinBUF · D
    DIST MI46.992
  • Bowen ByramBUF · D
    BURSTS1691
  • Logan StanleyBUF · D
    SHOT MPH95.991
  • Josh NorrisBUF · C
    SKATE MPH22.989

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · BUF favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BUF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BUF win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BUF win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-205

Close price

-205

Open no-vig

64.5%

Close no-vig

64.5%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR