Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SJ at BUF?

The model favors BUF, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3BUF

30-26-6

BUF

40-19-6

NHLTue, Mar 10FinalSeriesBUF leads series 1-0VegasBUF -205

SJ · top performer

Alexander Wennberg

C · #21

2Points

—

SOG

BUF · top performer

Jack Quinn

RW · #22

4Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. CelebriniC · #71	1	0	-1	1	0	3	0	24:25
W. EklundLW · #72	0	0	-1	2	1	1	0	16:29
A. GaudetteRW · #81	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	10:55
B. GoodrowC · #23	0	0	0	1	3	0	17	9:03
C. GrafRW · #51	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	17:41
P. KurashevC · #96	0	0	-3	0	2	0	0	12:29
M. MisaC · #77	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	14:06
Z. OstapchukC · #63	0	0	0	1	2	1	5	9:01
K. SherwoodLW · #44	1	0	-3	1	5	0	0	16:29
W. SmithC · #2	0	1	-1	2	0	0	0	20:49
T. ToffoliC · #73	0	1	-1	3	0	0	0	15:38
A. WennbergC · #21	1	1	-4	4	0	0	0	17:12

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. DesharnaisD · #5	0	0	-1	1	1	2	0	17:26
S. DickinsonD · #6	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	19:31
M. FerraroD · #38	0	1	0	0	1	3	0	20:46
J. KlingbergD · #3	0	0	-2	0	2	1	0	17:56
S. MukhamadullinD · #85	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	17:59
D. OrlovD · #9	0	0	-3	0	0	1	2	21:09

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Y. AskarovG · #30	25	5	20	.800	58:56

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BensonLW · #6	0	0	0	2	3	0	2	16:25
S. CarrickC · #10	0	0	1	0	2	2	0	13:33
J. DoanRW · #91	0	0	-1	2	0	1	0	15:07
P. KrebsC · #19	0	1	1	3	3	2	0	13:58
B. MalenstynLW · #29	1	0	1	2	5	0	5	11:31
R. McLeodC · #71	0	3	4	1	0	0	0	17:02
J. NorrisC · #9	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	14:02
N. OstlundC · #86	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	15:29
J. QuinnRW · #22	3	1	4	4	1	0	0	15:09
T. ThompsonC · #72	0	0	0	2	1	1	2	16:41
A. TuchRW · #89	1	0	-1	1	0	2	0	16:00
J. ZuckerLW · #17	1	1	4	1	0	1	2	12:56

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. ByramD · #4	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	21:40
R. DahlinD · #26	0	3	4	2	0	0	0	20:07
M. KesselringD · #8	0	0	-1	2	1	0	0	15:09
O. PowerD · #25	0	1	3	1	0	1	0	22:49
M. SamuelssonD · #23	0	1	1	0	1	3	0	22:25
L. StanleyD · #64	0	0	0	0	1	1	7	15:51

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. LyonG · #34	20	3	17	.850	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

Away

Stat

BUF

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

BUF leads series 1-0

Mar 10

SJ3@

BUF6today

Mar 20

BUF5@

SJ0

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BUF -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

SJ+17037%

BUF-20567%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗

Line movement · 61 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BUF beat SJ 6-3. J. Quinn led the way — 3 G · 1 A · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
SJ	1	1	1	3
BUF	2	2	2	6

Period scoring

SJ won 0 · BUF won 3

BUF

Play-by-play · 308 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
SJ 3·BUF 6
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
SJ 3·BUF 6
3rd·19:32
Philipp Kurashev hit Beck Malenstyn
·
SJ 3·BUF 6
3rd·18:47
Barclay Goodrow Slap Shot saved by Alex Lyon
·
SJ 3·BUF 6
3rd·18:44
Shakir Mukhamadullin Backhand Wide Right
·
SJ 3·BUF 6
3rd·18:40
Giveaway by Mattias Samuelsson
SJ 3·BUF 6
3rd·18:19
Tyler Toffoli Wrist Shot saved by Alex Lyon
·
SJ 3·BUF 6
3rd·17:41
Noah Ostlund Tip-In Wide Left
·
SJ 3·BUF 6
3rd·17:38
Michael Misa faceoff won against Noah Ostlund
·
SJ 3·BUF 6
3rd·17:38
Goalie Stopped
SJ 3·BUF 6
3rd·17:36
Michael Kesselring Wrist Shot saved by Yaroslav Askarov
·
SJ 3·BUF 6
3rd·17:31
Giveaway by Zack Ostapchuk
SJ 3·BUF 6
3rd·17:28
Peyton Krebs Wrist Shot saved by Yaroslav Askarov
·
SJ 3·BUF 6
3rd·17:26
Shakir Mukhamadullin hit Beck Malenstyn
·
SJ 3·BUF 6
3rd·17:14
Adam Gaudette faceoff won against Sam Carrick
·
SJ 3·BUF 6
3rd·17:14
Jack Quinn Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (36)
·
SJ 3·BUF 6
3rd·16:57
Jack Quinn shot blocked by William Eklund
·
SJ 3·BUF 5
3rd·16:25
Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
·
SJ 3·BUF 5
3rd·16:25
Puck in Benches
SJ 3·BUF 5
3rd·16:17
Alexander Wennberg faceoff won against Tage Thompson
·
SJ 3·BUF 5
3rd·16:17
Icing
SJ 3·BUF 5
3rd·16:07
Michael Misa Tip-In Wide Right
·
SJ 3·BUF 5
3rd·16:01
Zach Benson hit Vincent Desharnais
·
SJ 3·BUF 5
3rd·15:57
Sam Dickinson Snap Shot Wide Right
·
SJ 3·BUF 5
3rd·15:45
Giveaway by Alex Lyon
SJ 3·BUF 5
3rd·14:51
Takeaway by Peyton Krebs
SJ 3·BUF 5
3rd·14:39
Josh Norris faceoff won against Macklin Celebrini
·
SJ 3·BUF 5
3rd·14:39
Goalie Stopped
SJ 3·BUF 5
3rd·14:37
Collin Graf Wrist Shot saved by Alex Lyon
·
SJ 3·BUF 5
3rd·14:13
Giveaway by Rasmus Dahlin
SJ 3·BUF 5

Betting line

BUF -1.5·O/U 6.5·SJ +170/BUF -205

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

uffalo Sabres held off San Jose Sharks, 6–3.

BUF -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Tyler Toffoli · SJS15:480.6175.0%69.0%15:48 TOI · 0.61 iXG · 75.0% CF · 69.0% xGF
Josh Doan · BUF15:120.3850.0%63.5%15:12 TOI · 0.38 iXG · 50.0% CF · 63.5% xGF
Alexander Wennberg · SJS17:180.3744.4%52.7%17:18 TOI · 0.37 iXG · 44.4% CF · 52.7% xGF
Jack Quinn · BUF15:180.3555.6%50.1%15:18 TOI · 0.35 iXG · 55.6% CF · 50.1% xGF
Noah Ostlund · BUF15:240.3366.7%71.4%15:24 TOI · 0.33 iXG · 66.7% CF · 71.4% xGF
Beck Malenstyn · BUF11:240.3255.2%50.1%11:24 TOI · 0.32 iXG · 55.2% CF · 50.1% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Alex Lyon · BUF17–3.850-0.8917–3 · .850 SV% · -0.89 GSAx
Yaroslav Askarov · SJS20–5.800-2.4720–5 · .800 SV% · -2.47 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

66.6%

ensemble · BUF favored

Elo Static
66.6%
P(BUF win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
66.6%
P(BUF win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
66.6%
P(BUF win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-205

Close price

-205

Open no-vig

64.5%

Close no-vig

64.5%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SJ at BUF?: The model favors BUF, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

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