NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1CAR

PIT

32-17-15

CAR

41-17-6

NHLTue, Mar 10FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasCAR -205

PIT · top performer

Bryan Rust

RW · #17

3Points

—

SOG

CAR · top performer

Seth Jarvis

C · #24

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final/SO

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. AcciariC · #55	1	0	0	2	1	0	2	15:24
E. ChinakhovRW · #59	0	2	2	4	1	1	0	22:26
C. DewarC · #19	0	0	-1	0	5	1	0	12:58
A. HayesRW · #85	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	9:24
B. KindelC · #81	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	13:47
V. KoivunenRW · #41	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	10:37
B. LizotteC · #46	0	0	-2	0	0	2	0	14:12
A. ManthaRW · #39	1	0	1	3	0	2	0	14:23
T. NovakC · #18	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	18:35
R. RakellRW · #67	0	1	2	0	1	0	0	20:51
B. RustRW · #17	2	1	2	3	0	0	0	23:14
E. SoderblomLW · #25	0	0	-1	4	0	1	0	12:23

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CliftonD · #75	0	0	-1	0	1	2	2	16:00
E. KarlssonD · #65	0	2	2	2	1	2	0	28:01
K. LetangD · #58	0	0	0	1	1	3	2	22:14
R. SheaD · #5	0	0	0	1	0	3	2	20:43
I. SolovyovD · #7	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	14:01
P. WotherspoonD · #28	0	0	0	1	2	2	4	18:10

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. SkinnerG · #74	44	4	40	.909	63:06

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AhoC · #20	0	1	-1	5	2	0	0	22:07
J. BlakeRW · #53	0	1	1	6	0	1	2	15:14
W. CarrierLW · #28	0	1	1	1	3	0	2	10:01
N. EhlersLW · #27	0	1	-1	4	2	0	0	17:18
T. HallLW · #71	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	14:05
M. JankowskiLW · #77	1	0	1	3	1	1	0	10:46
S. JarvisC · #24	1	0	-1	9	2	0	0	20:45
J. MartinookLW · #48	0	0	-1	2	1	1	0	17:47
E. RobinsonLW · #50	0	0	1	3	5	0	0	8:49
J. StaalC · #11	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	18:07
L. StankovenC · #22	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	13:54
A. SvechnikovRW · #37	0	1	-1	0	1	0	4	17:45

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChatfieldD · #5	0	0	-1	2	2	1	0	20:51
K. MillerD · #19	0	0	-1	2	2	4	0	24:01
A. NikishinD · #21	1	1	2	2	2	0	2	19:49
M. ReillyD · #6	0	1	2	1	1	1	0	12:11
J. SlavinD · #74	0	0	-2	1	0	2	2	22:00
S. WalkerD · #26	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	20:38

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. AndersenG · #31	28	4	24	.857	65:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

PIT

Away

Stat

CAR

Home

Shots

20.0

PCT

20.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Dec 31

CAR1@

PIT5

Mar 10

PIT4@

CAR5today

Mar 18

PIT5@

CAR6

Mar 22

CAR5@

PIT1

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CAR -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PIT+17037%

CAR-20567%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗

Line movement · 28 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CAR beat PIT 5-4. S. Jarvis led the way — 1 G · 9 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	SO	T
PIT	1	1	2	0	0	4
CAR	1	0	3	0	1	5

Period scoring

PIT won 1 · CAR won 2

PIT

CAR

Play-by-play · 387 plays

period

event

player

SO·0:00
Game End
PIT 1·CAR 2
SO·0:00
End of OT
PIT 1·CAR 2
SO·0:00
End of Shootout
PIT 1·CAR 2
SO·0:00
Anthony Mantha Backhand saved by Frederik Andersen
·
PIT 1·CAR 2
SO·0:00
Jackson Blake Goal Snap Shot
PIT 1·CAR 2
SO·0:00
Egor Chinakhov Backhand Wide Right
·
PIT 1·CAR 2
SO·0:00
Andrei Svechnikov Goal Snap Shot
PIT 1·CAR 2
SO·0:00
Ben Kindel Goal Snap Shot
PIT 1·CAR 2
SO·0:00
Seth Jarvis Snap Shot saved by Stuart Skinner
·
PIT 1·CAR 2
SO·0:00
Start of Shootout
PIT 1·CAR 2
OT·5:00
End of OT
PIT 4·CAR 4
OT·4:31
Giveaway by Anthony Mantha
PIT 4·CAR 4
OT·4:29
Egor Chinakhov shot blocked by Jordan Martinook
·
PIT 4·CAR 4
OT·4:14
Rickard Rakell Tip-In Wide Left
·
PIT 4·CAR 4
OT·3:53
Jalen Chatfield hit Egor Chinakhov
·
PIT 4·CAR 4
OT·3:50
Rickard Rakell Tip-In Wide Left
·
PIT 4·CAR 4
OT·3:14
Noel Acciari faceoff won against Jordan Martinook
·
PIT 4·CAR 4
OT·3:14
Puck Frozen - Skater
PIT 4·CAR 4
OT·2:48
Jordan Staal faceoff won against Noel Acciari
·
PIT 4·CAR 4
OT·2:48
Off-side
PIT 4·CAR 4
OT·2:31
Jordan Staal faceoff won against Rickard Rakell
·
PIT 4·CAR 4
OT·2:31
Jaccob Slavin Slashing against Anthony Mantha
·
PIT 4·CAR 4
OT·2:20
Taylor Hall shot blocked by Anthony Mantha
·
PIT 4·CAR 4
OT·2:18
Jackson Blake Poke saved by Stuart Skinner
·
PIT 4·CAR 4
OT·1:49
Nikolaj Ehlers hit Bryan Rust
·
PIT 4·CAR 4
OT·1:45
Nikolaj Ehlers Snap Shot saved by Stuart Skinner
·
PIT 4·CAR 4
OT·1:26
Takeaway by Rickard Rakell
PIT 4·CAR 4
OT·1:19
Egor Chinakhov Snap Shot Wide Right
·
PIT 4·CAR 4
OT·1:10
Giveaway by Seth Jarvis
PIT 4·CAR 4
OT·1:06
Seth Jarvis Backhand saved by Stuart Skinner
·
PIT 4·CAR 4

Betting line

CAR -1.5·O/U 6.5·PIT +170/CAR -205

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

arolina Hurricanes held off Pittsburgh Penguins, 5–4.

PIT +1.5 cashed (CAR won by 1). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Seth Jarvis · CAR21:001.6059.6%56.0%21:00 TOI · 1.60 iXG · 59.6% CF · 56.0% xGF
Jackson Blake · CAR15:181.0969.4%69.0%15:18 TOI · 1.09 iXG · 69.4% CF · 69.0% xGF
Noel Acciari · PIT15:360.7037.5%35.1%15:36 TOI · 0.70 iXG · 37.5% CF · 35.1% xGF
Sebastian Aho · CAR22:240.6761.1%59.2%22:24 TOI · 0.67 iXG · 61.1% CF · 59.2% xGF
Elmer Soderblom · PIT12:360.6654.8%56.2%12:36 TOI · 0.66 iXG · 54.8% CF · 56.2% xGF
Tommy Novak · PIT19:000.6365.9%71.4%19:00 TOI · 0.63 iXG · 65.9% CF · 71.4% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Stuart Skinner · PIT40–4.909+2.8940–4 · .909 SV% · +2.89 GSAx
Frederik Andersen · CAR24–4.857-0.5924–4 · .857 SV% · -0.59 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.3%

ensemble · CAR favored

Elo Static
63.3%
P(CAR win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
63.3%
P(CAR win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
63.3%
P(CAR win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Team pages

Pittsburgh PenguinsCarolina Hurricanes

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