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FINAL+1CAR
PIT

PIT

32-17-15

45
CAR

CAR

41-17-6

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLTue, Mar 10FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasCAR -205

Recap · NHL

arolina Hurricanes held off Pittsburgh Penguins, 5–4.

PIT +1.5 cashed (CAR won by 1). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PIT · top performer

PIT
Bryan Rust

Bryan Rust

RW · #17

3Points

2

G

1

A

—

SOG

CAR · top performer

CAR
Sebastian Aho

Sebastian Aho

C · #20

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Pittsburgh Penguins at Carolina Hurricanes · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final/SO
4
5
PIT32-17-15CAR41-17-6
PIT

PIT

32-17-15

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
CAR

CAR

41-17-6

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

PIM

12

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Dec 31CARCAR1@PITPIT5
Mar 10PITPIT4@CARCAR5today
Mar 18PITPIT5@CARCAR6
Mar 22CARCAR5@PITPIT1

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CAR -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PITPIT+17037%
CARCAR-20567%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗

Line movement · 14 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CAR beat PIT 5-4.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTSOT
PIT112004
CAR103015

Period scoring

PIT won 1 · CAR won 2

1
1

1

1
0

2

2
3

3

0
0

OT

0
1

SO

PIT
CAR

Play-by-play · 387 plays

period
event
player
  1. SO·0:00

    Game End

    PIT 1·CAR 2

  2. SO·0:00

    End of OT

    PIT 1·CAR 2

  3. SO·0:00

    End of Shootout

    PIT 1·CAR 2

  4. SO·0:00

    Anthony Mantha Backhand saved by Frederik Andersen

    ·

    PIT 1·CAR 2

  5. SO·0:00

    Jackson Blake Goal Snap Shot

    PIT 1·CAR 2

  6. SO·0:00

    Egor Chinakhov Backhand Wide Right

    ·

    PIT 1·CAR 2

  7. SO·0:00

    Andrei Svechnikov Goal Snap Shot

    PIT 1·CAR 2

  8. SO·0:00

    Ben Kindel Goal Snap Shot

    PIT 1·CAR 2

  9. SO·0:00

    Seth Jarvis Snap Shot saved by Stuart Skinner

    ·

    PIT 1·CAR 2

  10. SO·0:00

    Start of Shootout

    PIT 1·CAR 2

  11. OT·5:00

    End of OT

    PIT 4·CAR 4

  12. OT·4:31

    Giveaway by Anthony Mantha

    PIT 4·CAR 4

  13. OT·4:29

    Egor Chinakhov shot blocked by Jordan Martinook

    ·

    PIT 4·CAR 4

  14. OT·4:14

    Rickard Rakell Tip-In Wide Left

    ·

    PIT 4·CAR 4

  15. OT·3:53

    Jalen Chatfield hit Egor Chinakhov

    ·

    PIT 4·CAR 4

  16. OT·3:50

    Rickard Rakell Tip-In Wide Left

    ·

    PIT 4·CAR 4

  17. OT·3:14

    Noel Acciari faceoff won against Jordan Martinook

    ·

    PIT 4·CAR 4

  18. OT·3:14

    Puck Frozen - Skater

    PIT 4·CAR 4

  19. OT·2:48

    Jordan Staal faceoff won against Noel Acciari

    ·

    PIT 4·CAR 4

  20. OT·2:48

    Off-side

    PIT 4·CAR 4

  21. OT·2:31

    Jordan Staal faceoff won against Rickard Rakell

    ·

    PIT 4·CAR 4

  22. OT·2:31

    Jaccob Slavin Slashing against Anthony Mantha

    ·

    PIT 4·CAR 4

  23. OT·2:20

    Taylor Hall shot blocked by Anthony Mantha

    ·

    PIT 4·CAR 4

  24. OT·2:18

    Jackson Blake Poke saved by Stuart Skinner

    ·

    PIT 4·CAR 4

  25. OT·1:49

    Nikolaj Ehlers hit Bryan Rust

    ·

    PIT 4·CAR 4

  26. OT·1:45

    Nikolaj Ehlers Snap Shot saved by Stuart Skinner

    ·

    PIT 4·CAR 4

  27. OT·1:26

    Takeaway by Rickard Rakell

    PIT 4·CAR 4

  28. OT·1:19

    Egor Chinakhov Snap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    PIT 4·CAR 4

  29. OT·1:10

    Giveaway by Seth Jarvis

    PIT 4·CAR 4

  30. OT·1:06

    Seth Jarvis Backhand saved by Stuart Skinner

    ·

    PIT 4·CAR 4

Team stats

PIT

Away

Stat

CAR

Home

28

Shots

44

20.0

PCT

20.0

12

PIM

12

36

Faceoffs W

31

20

Blocks

14

20

Giveaways

16

3

Takeaways

7

Betting line

CAR -1.5·O/U 6.5·PIT +170/CAR -205

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Egor ChinakhovPIT · RW
    SHOT MPH94.799
  • Sean WalkerCAR · D
    SKATE MPH22.998
  • Erik KarlssonPIT · D
    SKATE MPH22.897
  • Taylor HallCAR · LW
    BURSTS4696
  • Sebastian AhoCAR · C
    DIST MI44.795

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · CAR favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CAR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CAR win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CAR win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR