Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LA at BOS?

The model favors BOS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1BOS

26-23-15

BOS

36-22-6

NHLTue, Mar 10FinalSeriesBOS wins series 2-0VegasBOS -162

LA · top performer

Trevor Moore

LW · #12

1Points

—

SOG

BOS · top performer

Charlie McAvoy

D · #73

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Q. ByfieldRW · #55	0	0	-1	1	1	0	2	20:24
S. HeleniusC · #79	0	0	0	0	2	0	5	8:47
A. KempeRW · #9	0	1	0	2	1	0	2	17:04
A. KopitarC · #11	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	18:24
A. LaferriereRW · #14	0	0	0	2	5	0	0	20:39
S. LaughtonC · #21	0	0	0	2	4	1	0	16:03
J. MalottLW · #39	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	7:39
T. MooreLW · #12	0	1	0	4	2	0	0	19:50
A. PanarinLW · #10	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	17:57
A. TurcotteC · #15	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9:42
T. WardRW · #52	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	8:05
J. WrightRW · #53	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	10:13

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AndersonD · #44	0	0	0	0	4	2	0	25:03
C. CeciD · #5	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	17:48
B. ClarkeD · #92	0	0	-1	1	0	5	2	17:25
D. DoughtyD · #8	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	24:44
B. DumoulinD · #2	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	15:45
J. EdmundsonD · #6	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	18:46

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. KuemperG · #35	23	2	21	.913	60:18

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. ArvidssonLW · #71	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	13:20
M. EyssimontC · #81	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	10:04
M. GeekieC · #39	0	0	0	4	0	2	0	16:36
T. JeannotLW · #84	0	0	0	2	4	1	0	12:23
M. KastelicC · #47	0	1	1	1	3	1	0	13:01
M. KhusnutdinovC · #92	0	0	-1	2	1	0	0	15:07
S. KuralyC · #52	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:21
E. LindholmC · #28	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	19:29
F. MintenC · #93	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	14:30
C. MittelstadtC · #11	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14:06
D. PastrnakRW · #88	0	1	0	2	1	0	0	23:03
P. ZachaC · #18	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	17:20

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AspirotD · #45	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	17:46
H. LindholmD · #27	0	1	0	0	0	2	2	19:44
M. LohreiD · #6	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	19:49
C. McAvoyD · #73	1	0	1	3	2	1	2	22:26
A. PeekeD · #26	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	19:35
N. ZadorovD · #91	0	0	0	1	2	0	5	17:37

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. SwaymanG · #1	16	1	15	.938	60:19

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

BOS wins series 2-0

Nov 22

BOS2@

LA1

Mar 10

LA1@

BOS2today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

LA+13642%

BOS-16262%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗

Line movement · 25 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BOS beat LA 2-1. C. McAvoy led the way — 1 G · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
LA	0	0	1	0	1
BOS	0	0	1	1	2

Period scoring

LA won 0 · BOS won 1

BOS

Play-by-play · 309 plays

period

event

player

OT·0:39
Game End
LA 1·BOS 2
OT·0:39
End of OT
LA 1·BOS 2
OT·0:39
Charlie McAvoy Goal (7) Backhand, assists: David Pastrnak (53), Mark Kastelic (9)
· ·
LA 1·BOS 2
OT·0:30
Artemi Panarin shot blocked by Mark Kastelic
·
LA 1·BOS 1
OT·0:28
Artemi Panarin shot blocked by Charlie McAvoy
·
LA 1·BOS 1
OT·0:00
Mark Kastelic faceoff won against Quinton Byfield
·
LA 1·BOS 1
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
LA 1·BOS 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
LA 1·BOS 1
3rd·19:53
Drew Doughty Slap Shot Wide Right
·
LA 1·BOS 1
3rd·19:45
Giveaway by Adrian Kempe
LA 1·BOS 1
3rd·19:20
Anze Kopitar faceoff won against Elias Lindholm
· ·
LA 1·BOS 1
3rd·19:20
Goalie Stopped
LA 1·BOS 1
3rd·19:19
Quinton Byfield Wrist Shot saved by Jeremy Swayman
·
LA 1·BOS 1
3rd·18:28
Adrian Kempe hit Marat Khusnutdinov
·
LA 1·BOS 1
3rd·18:09
Anze Kopitar faceoff won against Elias Lindholm
· ·
LA 1·BOS 1
3rd·18:09
Goalie Stopped
LA 1·BOS 1
3rd·18:08
Tanner Jeannot Wrist Shot saved by Darcy Kuemper
·
LA 1·BOS 1
3rd·18:04
Mark Kastelic Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
LA 1·BOS 1
3rd·17:43
Scott Laughton faceoff won against Mark Kastelic
·
LA 1·BOS 1
3rd·17:43
Goalie Stopped
LA 1·BOS 1
3rd·17:41
Fraser Minten Snap Shot saved by Darcy Kuemper
·
LA 1·BOS 1
3rd·16:31
Giveaway by Morgan Geekie
LA 1·BOS 1
3rd·16:21
Elias Lindholm Batted Failed Bank Attempt
· ·
LA 1·BOS 1
3rd·16:19
Elias Lindholm Tip-In High and Wide Left
· ·
LA 1·BOS 1
3rd·16:06
Pavel Zacha faceoff won against Anze Kopitar
·
LA 1·BOS 1
3rd·16:06
Goalie Stopped
LA 1·BOS 1
3rd·16:04
Charlie McAvoy shot blocked by Scott Laughton
·
LA 1·BOS 1
3rd·16:03
Charlie McAvoy Snap Shot saved by Darcy Kuemper
·
LA 1·BOS 1
3rd·15:43
Elias Lindholm faceoff won against Scott Laughton
· ·
LA 1·BOS 1
3rd·15:43
Quinton Byfield Holding the stick against Elias Lindholm
· ·
LA 1·BOS 1

Betting line

BOS -1.5·O/U 5.5·LA +136/BOS -162

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

oston Bruins held off Los Angeles Kings, 2–1 in overtime.

LA +1.5 cashed (BOS won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Trevor Moore · LAK20:120.5658.8%54.5%20:12 TOI · 0.56 iXG · 58.8% CF · 54.5% xGF
Fraser Minten · BOS14:420.4060.7%72.9%14:42 TOI · 0.40 iXG · 60.7% CF · 72.9% xGF
Morgan Geekie · BOS16:360.3761.1%73.9%16:36 TOI · 0.37 iXG · 61.1% CF · 73.9% xGF
Marat Khusnutdinov · BOS16:300.3633.3%40.4%16:30 TOI · 0.36 iXG · 33.3% CF · 40.4% xGF
Viktor Arvidsson · BOS13:360.3446.2%49.8%13:36 TOI · 0.34 iXG · 46.2% CF · 49.8% xGF
Charlie McAvoy · BOS22:300.3245.8%59.7%22:30 TOI · 0.32 iXG · 45.8% CF · 59.7% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Darcy Kuemper · LAK21–2.913+0.5121–2 · .913 SV% · +0.51 GSAx
Jeremy Swayman · BOS15–1.938+0.3515–1 · .938 SV% · +0.35 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

64.1%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
64.1%
P(BOS win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
64.1%
P(BOS win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
64.1%
P(BOS win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-162

Close price

-162

Open no-vig

59.3%

Close no-vig

59.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LA at BOS?: The model favors BOS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

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