Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in EDM at COL?

The model favors COL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1EDM

EDM

32-25-8

COL

43-11-9

NHLTue, Mar 10FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasCOL -175

EDM · top performer

Connor McDavid

C · #97

2Points

—

SOG

COL · top performer

Martin Necas

C · #88

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. DachC · #34	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1:35
J. DickinsonC · #16	0	0	0	2	4	1	0	17:14
L. DraisaitlC · #29	0	2	-1	5	2	0	0	22:51
T. FredericC · #10	0	0	0	1	4	0	5	8:49
Z. HymanLW · #18	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	21:02
K. KapanenRW · #42	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	13:33
C. McDavidC · #97	1	1	1	5	0	0	0	23:57
R. Nugent-HopkinsC · #93	2	0	1	2	0	0	0	19:17
V. PodkolzinRW · #92	0	0	-1	1	4	1	0	13:16
J. RoslovicC · #28	1	0	-1	3	0	1	0	15:22
J. SamanskiC · #81	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	8:10
M. SavoieC · #22	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	15:36

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. BouchardD · #2	0	2	2	4	0	2	0	27:21
M. EkholmD · #14	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	22:22
T. EmbersonD · #49	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	5:35
C. MurphyD · #5	0	0	-1	0	1	4	4	21:42
D. NurseD · #25	0	1	1	1	2	1	0	19:00
J. WalmanD · #96	0	0	-1	0	0	7	0	18:21

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. IngramG · #39	18	2	16	.889	39:07
T. JarryG · #35	12	1	11	.917	20:26

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BardakovC · #93	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	9:36
G. BrindleyC · #54	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	8:15
R. ColtonC · #20	1	0	0	1	2	0	0	8:15
J. DruryC · #18	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	13:45
N. KadriC · #91	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	22:06
P. KellyC · #17	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	13:30
J. KivirantaLW · #94	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	14:13
N. MacKinnonC · #29	0	0	-1	1	0	0	15	14:17
M. NecasC · #88	1	0	-2	4	1	0	0	22:52
B. NelsonC · #11	0	1	2	3	0	0	2	22:25
V. NichushkinRW · #13	1	0	2	3	0	0	0	18:58
N. RoyC · #10	0	0	-1	3	0	1	7	11:30

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BurnsD · #84	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	16:59
B. KulakD · #27	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	16:04
C. MakarD · #8	0	0	-1	2	0	1	0	26:58
S. MalinskiD · #70	0	1	1	4	0	3	0	16:04
J. MansonD · #42	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	16:06
D. ToewsD · #7	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	21:55

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BlackwoodG · #39	24	4	20	.833	57:50

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

EDM

Away

Stat

COL

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

33.3

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Nov 9

COL9@

EDM1

Mar 11

EDM4@

COL3today

Apr 14

COL2@

EDM1

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

EDM+14541%

COL-17564%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 29 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

EDM beat COL 4-3. C. McDavid led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
EDM	2	1	1	4
COL	2	0	1	3

Period scoring

EDM won 1 · COL won 0

EDM

COL

Play-by-play · 303 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
EDM 4·COL 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
EDM 4·COL 3
3rd·19:40
Connor McDavid Wrist Shot Wide Right
EDM 4·COL 3
3rd·19:35
Nicolas Roy faceoff won against Leon Draisaitl
·
EDM 4·COL 3
3rd·19:35
Puck in Crowd
EDM 4·COL 3
3rd·19:32
Giveaway by Leon Draisaitl
EDM 4·COL 3
3rd·19:25
Brock Nelson faceoff won against Leon Draisaitl
·
EDM 4·COL 3
3rd·19:25
Icing
EDM 4·COL 3
3rd·19:11
Giveaway by Martin Necas
EDM 4·COL 3
3rd·19:02
Valeri Nichushkin Snap Shot Wide Right
·
EDM 4·COL 3
3rd·18:52
Gavin Brindley Snap Shot Wide Right
·
EDM 4·COL 3
3rd·18:50
Brock Nelson shot blocked by Evan Bouchard
·
EDM 4·COL 3
3rd·18:42
Giveaway by Martin Necas
EDM 4·COL 3
3rd·18:33
Giveaway by Evan Bouchard
EDM 4·COL 3
3rd·18:32
Leon Draisaitl faceoff won against Brock Nelson
·
EDM 4·COL 3
3rd·18:32
Icing
EDM 4·COL 3
3rd·18:08
Brock Nelson faceoff won against Leon Draisaitl
·
EDM 4·COL 3
3rd·18:08
Off-side
EDM 4·COL 3
3rd·17:53
Giveaway by Zach Hyman
EDM 4·COL 3
3rd·17:52
Giveaway by Cale Makar
EDM 4·COL 3
3rd·17:14
Nicolas Roy Tip-In Wide Right
·
EDM 4·COL 3
3rd·17:13
Giveaway by Vasily Podkolzin
EDM 4·COL 3
3rd·16:46
Brent Burns shot blocked by Mattias Ekholm
·
EDM 4·COL 3
3rd·16:38
Giveaway by Evan Bouchard
EDM 4·COL 3
3rd·16:13
Jack Drury faceoff won against Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
·
EDM 4·COL 3
3rd·16:13
Icing
EDM 4·COL 3
3rd·16:06
Takeaway by Mattias Ekholm
EDM 4·COL 3
3rd·15:33
Sam Malinski Slap Shot saved by Tristan Jarry
·
EDM 4·COL 3
3rd·15:28
Martin Necas shot blocked by Kasperi Kapanen
·
EDM 4·COL 3
3rd·15:03
Leon Draisaitl faceoff won against Nazem Kadri
·
EDM 4·COL 3

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 6.5·EDM +145/COL -175

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

dmonton Oilers went into Colorado Avalanche and beat them, 4–3.

EDM +1.5 cashed (COL lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

68.2%

ensemble · COL favored

Elo Static
68.2%
P(COL win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
68.2%
P(COL win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
68.2%
P(COL win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-175

Close price

-175

Open no-vig

60.9%

Close no-vig

60.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in EDM at COL?: The model favors COL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Edmonton OilersColorado Avalanche

Elsewhere in the NHL