Free during beta —to track favorites + alerts
FINAL+1EDM
EDM

EDM

32-25-8

43
COL

COL

43-11-9

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLTue, Mar 10FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasCOL -175

Recap · NHL

dmonton Oilers went into Colorado Avalanche and beat them, 4–3.

EDM +1.5 cashed (COL lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

EDM · top performer

EDM
Leon Draisaitl

Leon Draisaitl

C · #29

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

COL · top performer

COL
Ross Colton

Ross Colton

C · #20

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Edmonton Oilers at Colorado Avalanche · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
4
3
EDM32-25-8COL43-11-9
EDM

EDM

32-25-8

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
COL

COL

43-11-9

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

PIM

26

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Nov 9COLCOL9@EDMEDM1
Mar 11EDMEDM4@COLCOL3today
Apr 14COLCOL2@EDMEDM1

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

EDMEDM+14541%
COLCOL-17564%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

EDM beat COL 4-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
EDM2114
COL2013

Period scoring

EDM won 1 · COL won 0

2
2

1

1
0

2

1
1

3

EDM
COL

Play-by-play · 303 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    EDM 4·COL 3

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    EDM 4·COL 3

  3. 3rd·19:40

    Connor McDavid Wrist Shot Wide Right

    EDM 4·COL 3

  4. 3rd·19:35

    Nicolas Roy faceoff won against Leon Draisaitl

    ·

    EDM 4·COL 3

  5. 3rd·19:35

    Puck in Crowd

    EDM 4·COL 3

  6. 3rd·19:32

    Giveaway by Leon Draisaitl

    EDM 4·COL 3

  7. 3rd·19:25

    Brock Nelson faceoff won against Leon Draisaitl

    ·

    EDM 4·COL 3

  8. 3rd·19:25

    Icing

    EDM 4·COL 3

  9. 3rd·19:11

    Giveaway by Martin Necas

    EDM 4·COL 3

  10. 3rd·19:02

    Valeri Nichushkin Snap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    EDM 4·COL 3

  11. 3rd·18:52

    Gavin Brindley Snap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    EDM 4·COL 3

  12. 3rd·18:50

    Brock Nelson shot blocked by Evan Bouchard

    ·

    EDM 4·COL 3

  13. 3rd·18:42

    Giveaway by Martin Necas

    EDM 4·COL 3

  14. 3rd·18:33

    Giveaway by Evan Bouchard

    EDM 4·COL 3

  15. 3rd·18:32

    Leon Draisaitl faceoff won against Brock Nelson

    ·

    EDM 4·COL 3

  16. 3rd·18:32

    Icing

    EDM 4·COL 3

  17. 3rd·18:08

    Brock Nelson faceoff won against Leon Draisaitl

    ·

    EDM 4·COL 3

  18. 3rd·18:08

    Off-side

    EDM 4·COL 3

  19. 3rd·17:53

    Giveaway by Zach Hyman

    EDM 4·COL 3

  20. 3rd·17:52

    Giveaway by Cale Makar

    EDM 4·COL 3

  21. 3rd·17:14

    Nicolas Roy Tip-In Wide Right

    ·

    EDM 4·COL 3

  22. 3rd·17:13

    Giveaway by Vasily Podkolzin

    EDM 4·COL 3

  23. 3rd·16:46

    Brent Burns shot blocked by Mattias Ekholm

    ·

    EDM 4·COL 3

  24. 3rd·16:38

    Giveaway by Evan Bouchard

    EDM 4·COL 3

  25. 3rd·16:13

    Jack Drury faceoff won against Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

    ·

    EDM 4·COL 3

  26. 3rd·16:13

    Icing

    EDM 4·COL 3

  27. 3rd·16:06

    Takeaway by Mattias Ekholm

    EDM 4·COL 3

  28. 3rd·15:33

    Sam Malinski Slap Shot saved by Tristan Jarry

    ·

    EDM 4·COL 3

  29. 3rd·15:28

    Martin Necas shot blocked by Kasperi Kapanen

    ·

    EDM 4·COL 3

  30. 3rd·15:03

    Leon Draisaitl faceoff won against Nazem Kadri

    ·

    EDM 4·COL 3

Team stats

EDM

Away

Stat

COL

Home

24

Shots

30

50.0

PCT

33.3

11

PIM

26

26

Faceoffs W

26

22

Blocks

8

21

Giveaways

15

6

Takeaways

4

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 6.5·EDM +145/COL -175

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Ross ColtonCOL · C
    SKATE MPH23.799+
  • Nathan MacKinnonCOL · C
    BURSTS8799+
  • Cale MakarCOL · D
    SKATE MPH23.999+
  • Jake WalmanEDM · D
    SHOT MPH99.599
  • Connor McDavidEDM · C
    BURSTS5498

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · COL favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(COL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(COL win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(COL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-175

Close price

-175

Open no-vig

60.9%

Close no-vig

60.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR