Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DET at FLA?

The model favors FLA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1FLA

DET

36-22-7

FLA

32-29-3

NHLTue, Mar 10FinalSeriesFLA leads series 2-1VegasFLA -115

DET · top performer

Marco Kasper

C · #92

1Points

—

SOG

FLA · top performer

Carter Verhaeghe

C · #23

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AppletonC · #22	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	16:44
M. Brandsegg-NygardRW · #28	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	12:07
J.T. CompherLW · #37	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	17:30
A. CoppC · #18	0	1	1	1	0	0	2	10:01
A. DeBrincatRW · #93	0	1	0	3	0	1	2	20:01
E. FinnieC · #58	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	15:44
P. KaneRW · #88	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	18:01
M. KasperC · #92	1	0	0	4	4	1	0	16:26
M. RasmussenC · #27	0	0	-2	1	1	2	0	16:26
L. RaymondLW · #23	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	18:43
D. ShineRW · #65	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	7:03
J. van RiemsdykLW · #21	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8:31

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Bernard-DockerD · #25	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	15:12
B. ChiarotD · #8	0	0	1	3	5	3	0	19:34
S. EdvinssonD · #77	0	0	0	2	0	2	2	21:20
J. FaulkD · #72	1	1	-1	1	1	1	0	20:48
A. JohanssonD · #20	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:24
M. SeiderD · #53	0	1	-1	3	0	4	0	25:40

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. GibsonG · #36	28	4	24	.857	59:45

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BennettC · #9	0	1	2	4	1	0	2	16:52
J. BoqvistC · #70	0	1	1	1	5	0	0	13:19
A.J. GreerLW · #10	0	0	-1	2	6	1	0	15:48
V. HinostrozaC · #24	1	1	2	1	1	1	0	9:41
L. KuninC · #71	0	0	2	0	1	1	0	11:10
A. LundellC · #15	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	18:32
E. LuostarinenC · #27	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	14:05
T. NosekLW · #92	0	0	-1	0	3	0	0	15:30
E. RodriguesC · #17	0	0	-2	0	0	0	0	16:21
M. SamoskevichRW · #11	0	0	0	3	6	0	0	17:40
M. TkachukLW · #19	0	2	2	4	0	0	2	15:52
C. VerhaegheC · #23	2	0	1	4	1	0	0	17:09

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
U. BalinskisD · #26	0	0	-1	3	1	1	0	15:49
A. EkbladD · #5	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	21:42
G. ForslingD · #42	0	1	-1	3	0	1	0	20:36
D. KulikovD · #7	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	19:03
N. MikkolaD · #77	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	17:59
D. SebrangoD · #6	0	0	1	0	3	2	0	19:32

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. TarasovG · #40	28	3	25	.893	59:20

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

FLA

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

FLA leads series 2-1

Oct 15

FLA1@

DET4

Mar 7

FLA3@

DET1

Mar 10

DET3@

FLA4today

Apr 15

DET1@

FLA8

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

FLA -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

DET-10551%

FLA-11553%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet FLA -1.5↗SpreadBet FLA -1.5↗

Line movement · 35 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

FLA beat DET 4-3. C. Verhaeghe led the way — 2 G · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
DET	0	2	1	3
FLA	1	0	3	4

Period scoring

DET won 1 · FLA won 2

DET

FLA

Play-by-play · 322 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
DET 3·FLA 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
DET 3·FLA 4
3rd·19:54
Anton Lundell faceoff won against J.T. Compher
·
DET 3·FLA 4
3rd·19:54
Off-side
DET 3·FLA 4
3rd·19:45
J.T. Compher faceoff won against Anton Lundell
·
DET 3·FLA 4
3rd·19:45
Timeout - Visitor
DET 3·FLA 4
3rd·19:45
Carter Verhaeghe Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (11), Sam Bennett (26)
· ·
DET 3·FLA 4
3rd·19:38
Donovan Sebrango hit Emmitt Finnie
·
DET 3·FLA 3
3rd·19:07
Emmitt Finnie Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
DET 3·FLA 3
3rd·18:48
J.T. Compher faceoff won against Anton Lundell
·
DET 3·FLA 3
3rd·18:48
Icing
DET 3·FLA 3
3rd·18:39
Gustav Forsling Snap Shot saved by John Gibson
·
DET 3·FLA 3
3rd·18:30
J.T. Compher faceoff won against A.J. Greer
·
DET 3·FLA 3
3rd·18:30
Carter Verhaeghe Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (10)
·
DET 3·FLA 3
3rd·18:26
Giveaway by Simon Edvinsson
DET 3·FLA 2
3rd·18:22
Aaron Ekblad shot blocked by Michael Rasmussen
·
DET 3·FLA 2
3rd·18:16
Matthew Tkachuk shot blocked by J.T. Compher
·
DET 3·FLA 2
3rd·18:14
Sam Bennett faceoff won against J.T. Compher
·
DET 3·FLA 2
3rd·18:14
Goalie Stopped
DET 3·FLA 2
3rd·18:13
Matthew Tkachuk Wrist Shot Failed Bank Attempt
·
DET 3·FLA 2
3rd·18:12
Matthew Tkachuk Backhand saved by John Gibson
·
DET 3·FLA 2
3rd·18:11
Matthew Tkachuk Poke saved by John Gibson
·
DET 3·FLA 2
3rd·18:10
Sam Bennett Wrist Shot saved by John Gibson
·
DET 3·FLA 2
3rd·17:58
Takeaway by Aaron Ekblad
DET 3·FLA 2
3rd·17:55
Justin Faulk hit Anton Lundell
·
DET 3·FLA 2
3rd·17:11
Michael Rasmussen shot blocked by Vinnie Hinostroza
·
DET 3·FLA 2
3rd·17:11
Giveaway by Jesper Boqvist
DET 3·FLA 2
3rd·16:46
Tomas Nosek Tip-In Wide Right
·
DET 3·FLA 2
3rd·16:30
Lucas Raymond hit A.J. Greer
·
DET 3·FLA 2
3rd·16:26
Donovan Sebrango shot blocked by Alex DeBrincat
·
DET 3·FLA 2

Betting line

FLA -1.5·O/U 5.5·DET -105/FLA -115

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

lorida Panthers held off Detroit Red Wings, 4–3.

DET +1.5 cashed (FLA won by 1). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Marco Kasper · DET16:420.6335.9%42.6%16:42 TOI · 0.63 iXG · 35.9% CF · 42.6% xGF
Mackie Samoskevich · SEA17:480.5475.0%79.5%17:48 TOI · 0.54 iXG · 75.0% CF · 79.5% xGF
Sam Bennett · FLA16:480.5060.5%55.4%16:48 TOI · 0.50 iXG · 60.5% CF · 55.4% xGF
Lucas Raymond · DET18:540.4839.5%51.7%18:54 TOI · 0.48 iXG · 39.5% CF · 51.7% xGF
Andrew Copp · DET10:000.4373.7%91.3%10:00 TOI · 0.43 iXG · 73.7% CF · 91.3% xGF
Matthew Tkachuk · FLA16:060.4265.0%58.6%16:06 TOI · 0.42 iXG · 65.0% CF · 58.6% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Daniil Tarasov · FLA25–3.893-0.0925–3 · .893 SV% · -0.09 GSAx
John Gibson · DET24–4.857-1.4524–4 · .857 SV% · -1.45 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.4%

ensemble · FLA favored

Elo Static
53.4%
P(FLA win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
53.4%
P(FLA win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
53.4%
P(FLA win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-115

Close price

-115

Open no-vig

51.1%

Close no-vig

51.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DET at FLA?: The model favors FLA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Detroit Red WingsFlorida Panthers

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