NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1FLA

DET

36-22-7

FLA

32-29-3

NHLTue, Mar 10FinalSeriesFLA leads series 2-1VegasFLA -115

Recap · NHL

lorida Panthers held off Detroit Red Wings, 4–3.

DET +1.5 cashed (FLA won by 1). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DET · top performer

Andrew Copp

C · #18

1Points

—

SOG

FLA · top performer

Vinnie Hinostroza

C · #24

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	G	A	+/-	S	HT	BS	PIM	TOI
M. AppletonC · #22	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	16:44
M. Brandsegg-NygardRW · #28	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	12:07
J.T. CompherLW · #37	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	17:30
A. CoppC · #18	0	1	1	1	0	0	2	10:01
A. DeBrincatRW · #93	0	1	0	3	0	1	2	20:01
E. FinnieC · #58	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	15:44
P. KaneRW · #88	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	18:01
M. KasperC · #92	1	0	0	4	4	1	0	16:26
M. RasmussenC · #27	0	0	-2	1	1	2	0	16:26
L. RaymondLW · #23	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	18:43
D. ShineRW · #65	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	7:03
J. van RiemsdykLW · #21	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8:31

Defensemen

defenses box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	G	A	+/-	S	HT	BS	PIM	TOI
J. Bernard-DockerD · #25	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	15:12
B. ChiarotD · #8	0	0	1	3	5	3	0	19:34
S. EdvinssonD · #77	0	0	0	2	0	2	2	21:20
J. FaulkD · #72	1	1	-1	1	1	1	0	20:48
A. JohanssonD · #20	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:24
M. SeiderD · #53	0	1	-1	3	0	4	0	25:40

Goalies

goalies box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	SA	GA	SV	SV%	TOI
J. GibsonG · #36	28	4	24	.857	59:45

Forwards

forwards box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	G	A	+/-	S	HT	BS	PIM	TOI
S. BennettC · #9	0	1	2	4	1	0	2	16:52
J. BoqvistC · #70	0	1	1	1	5	0	0	13:19
A.J. GreerLW · #10	0	0	-1	2	6	1	0	15:48
V. HinostrozaC · #24	1	1	2	1	1	1	0	9:41
L. KuninC · #71	0	0	2	0	1	1	0	11:10
A. LundellC · #15	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	18:32
E. LuostarinenC · #27	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	14:05
T. NosekLW · #92	0	0	-1	0	3	0	0	15:30
E. RodriguesC · #17	0	0	-2	0	0	0	0	16:21
M. SamoskevichRW · #11	0	0	0	3	6	0	0	17:40
M. TkachukLW · #19	0	2	2	4	0	0	2	15:52
C. VerhaegheC · #23	2	0	1	4	1	0	0	17:09

Defensemen

defenses box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	G	A	+/-	S	HT	BS	PIM	TOI
U. BalinskisD · #26	0	0	-1	3	1	1	0	15:49
A. EkbladD · #5	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	21:42
G. ForslingD · #42	0	1	-1	3	0	1	0	20:36
D. KulikovD · #7	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	19:03
N. MikkolaD · #77	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	17:59
D. SebrangoD · #6	0	0	1	0	3	2	0	19:32

Goalies

goalies box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	SA	GA	SV	SV%	TOI
D. TarasovG · #40	28	3	25	.893	59:20

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

FLA leads series 2-1

Oct 15

FLA1@

DET4

Mar 7

FLA3@

DET1

Mar 10

DET3@

FLA4today

Apr 15

DET1@

FLA8

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

FLA -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

DET-10551%

FLA-11553%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet FLA -1.5↗SpreadBet FLA -1.5↗

Line movement · 17 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

FLA beat DET 4-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
DET	0	2	1	3
FLA	1	0	3	4

Period scoring

DET won 1 · FLA won 2

DET

FLA

Play-by-play · 322 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
DET 3·FLA 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
DET 3·FLA 4
3rd·19:54
Anton Lundell faceoff won against J.T. Compher
·
DET 3·FLA 4
3rd·19:54
Off-side
DET 3·FLA 4
3rd·19:45
J.T. Compher faceoff won against Anton Lundell
·
DET 3·FLA 4
3rd·19:45
Timeout - Visitor
DET 3·FLA 4
3rd·19:45
Carter Verhaeghe Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (11), Sam Bennett (26)
· ·
DET 3·FLA 4
3rd·19:38
Donovan Sebrango hit Emmitt Finnie
·
DET 3·FLA 3
3rd·19:07
Emmitt Finnie Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
DET 3·FLA 3
3rd·18:48
J.T. Compher faceoff won against Anton Lundell
·
DET 3·FLA 3
3rd·18:48
Icing
DET 3·FLA 3
3rd·18:39
Gustav Forsling Snap Shot saved by John Gibson
·
DET 3·FLA 3
3rd·18:30
J.T. Compher faceoff won against A.J. Greer
·
DET 3·FLA 3
3rd·18:30
Carter Verhaeghe Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (10)
·
DET 3·FLA 3
3rd·18:26
Giveaway by Simon Edvinsson
DET 3·FLA 2
3rd·18:22
Aaron Ekblad shot blocked by Michael Rasmussen
·
DET 3·FLA 2
3rd·18:16
Matthew Tkachuk shot blocked by J.T. Compher
·
DET 3·FLA 2
3rd·18:14
Sam Bennett faceoff won against J.T. Compher
·
DET 3·FLA 2
3rd·18:14
Goalie Stopped
DET 3·FLA 2
3rd·18:13
Matthew Tkachuk Wrist Shot Failed Bank Attempt
·
DET 3·FLA 2
3rd·18:12
Matthew Tkachuk Backhand saved by John Gibson
·
DET 3·FLA 2
3rd·18:11
Matthew Tkachuk Poke saved by John Gibson
·
DET 3·FLA 2
3rd·18:10
Sam Bennett Wrist Shot saved by John Gibson
·
DET 3·FLA 2
3rd·17:58
Takeaway by Aaron Ekblad
DET 3·FLA 2
3rd·17:55
Justin Faulk hit Anton Lundell
·
DET 3·FLA 2
3rd·17:11
Michael Rasmussen shot blocked by Vinnie Hinostroza
·
DET 3·FLA 2
3rd·17:11
Giveaway by Jesper Boqvist
DET 3·FLA 2
3rd·16:46
Tomas Nosek Tip-In Wide Right
·
DET 3·FLA 2
3rd·16:30
Lucas Raymond hit A.J. Greer
·
DET 3·FLA 2
3rd·16:26
Donovan Sebrango shot blocked by Alex DeBrincat
·
DET 3·FLA 2

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

FLA

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

FLA -1.5·O/U 5.5·DET -105/FLA -115

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE

Moritz SeiderDET · D
DIST MI299.899
Gustav ForslingFLA · D
SHOT MPH100.497
Vinnie HinostrozaFLA · C
SKATE MPH23.696
Alex DeBrincatDET · RW
DIST MI252.196
Uvis BalinskisFLA · D
SKATE MPH23.195

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.9%

ensemble · FLA favored

Elo Static
53.4%
P(FLA win)
67%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
53.4%
P(FLA win)
16%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
53.4%
P(FLA win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-115

Close price

-115

Open no-vig

51.1%

Close no-vig

51.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit