Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in VGK at DAL?

The model favors DAL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1DAL

VGK

29-22-14

DAL

40-14-10

NHLTue, Mar 10FinalSeriesDAL leads series 2-0VegasDAL -148

VGK · top performer

Jack Eichel

C · #9

1Points

—

SOG

DAL · top performer

Oskar Back

C · #10

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. BarbashevLW · #49	0	1	0	0	3	0	2	15:03
B. BowmanRW · #42	0	0	-1	2	0	0	2	17:10
P. DorofeyevRW · #16	0	0	1	3	0	1	0	17:31
N. DowdC · #62	0	0	0	1	3	0	2	11:32
J. EichelC · #9	1	0	1	4	0	0	2	22:51
T. HertlC · #48	0	0	-1	2	1	1	0	18:09
B. HowdenC · #21	0	0	0	2	4	1	0	12:51
K. KolesarRW · #55	0	0	0	1	8	0	0	10:39
M. MarnerRW · #93	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	20:15
C. SissonsC · #10	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	13:58
R. SmithRW · #19	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:32
C. SmithRW · #22	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	10:59

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. AnderssonD · #4	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	19:40
N. HanifinD · #15	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	20:22
K. KorczakD · #6	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	12:03
J. LauzonD · #5	0	0	1	1	5	3	0	16:31
B. McNabbD · #3	0	0	0	5	5	2	0	19:52
S. TheodoreD · #27	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	21:56

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. HillG · #33	16	2	14	.875	58:10

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. BackC · #10	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	13:29
J. BennLW · #14	1	0	0	1	2	1	0	15:12
C. BlackwellC · #15	0	1	1	1	3	1	0	11:32
M. BourqueC · #22	0	0	-1	2	2	0	0	19:24
M. BuntingLW · #58	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:33
M. DucheneC · #95	0	1	0	1	1	1	0	15:01
A. ErneLW · #73	0	0	0	2	5	0	0	9:59
J. HryckowianC · #49	0	0	0	0	2	1	2	14:06
A. HyryRW · #25	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	13:30
W. JohnstonC · #53	0	1	-1	1	1	0	0	22:51
J. RobertsonLW · #21	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	22:04
S. SteelC · #18	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	11:25

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. BichselD · #6	0	0	1	0	1	2	2	14:12
T. HarleyD · #55	0	1	0	1	0	3	2	21:34
M. HeiskanenD · #4	0	0	-1	2	1	1	0	26:35
E. LindellD · #23	0	0	-1	0	0	5	0	22:34
N. LundkvistD · #5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:20
T. MyersD · #57	0	0	1	1	2	1	0	13:46

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. OettingerG · #29	27	1	26	.963	59:53

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

VGK

Away

Stat

DAL

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

20.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

DAL leads series 2-0

Jan 30

DAL5@

VGK4

Mar 11

VGK1@

DAL2today

Mar 22

VGK3@

DAL2

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

VGK+12445%

DAL-14860%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 24 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DAL beat VGK 2-1. O. Back led the way — 1 G · 1 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
VGK	0	1	0	1
DAL	0	2	0	2

Period scoring

VGK won 0 · DAL won 1

VGK

DAL

Play-by-play · 273 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
VGK 1·DAL 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
VGK 1·DAL 2
3rd·19:57
Shea Theodore Slap Shot Wide Right
·
VGK 1·DAL 2
3rd·19:39
Wyatt Johnston faceoff won against Tomas Hertl
·
VGK 1·DAL 2
3rd·19:39
Icing
VGK 1·DAL 2
3rd·19:33
Giveaway by Jack Eichel
VGK 1·DAL 2
3rd·19:33
Wyatt Johnston Wrist Shot Wide Left
VGK 1·DAL 2
3rd·19:23
Tomas Hertl Tip-In saved by Jake Oettinger
·
VGK 1·DAL 2
3rd·18:41
Shea Theodore Snap Shot saved by Jake Oettinger
·
VGK 1·DAL 2
3rd·18:28
Mitch Marner shot blocked by Jason Robertson
·
VGK 1·DAL 2
3rd·18:11
Mitch Marner shot blocked by Esa Lindell
·
VGK 1·DAL 2
3rd·17:56
Takeaway by Jason Robertson
VGK 1·DAL 2
3rd·17:35
Wyatt Johnston hit Kaedan Korczak
·
VGK 1·DAL 2
3rd·17:22
Kaedan Korczak Snap Shot saved by Jake Oettinger
·
VGK 1·DAL 2
3rd·17:15
Jeremy Lauzon hit Justin Hryckowian
·
VGK 1·DAL 2
3rd·17:09
Justin Hryckowian faceoff won against Nic Dowd
·
VGK 1·DAL 2
3rd·17:09
Goalie Stopped
VGK 1·DAL 2
3rd·17:07
Michael Bunting Snap Shot saved by Adin Hill
·
VGK 1·DAL 2
3rd·17:07
Giveaway by Noah Hanifin
VGK 1·DAL 2
3rd·16:49
Noah Hanifin shot blocked by Colin Blackwell
·
VGK 1·DAL 2
3rd·16:22
Noah Hanifin shot blocked by Lian Bichsel
·
VGK 1·DAL 2
3rd·16:19
Colton Sissons faceoff won against Arttu Hyry
·
VGK 1·DAL 2
3rd·16:19
Icing
VGK 1·DAL 2
3rd·16:11
Arttu Hyry faceoff won against Nic Dowd
·
VGK 1·DAL 2
3rd·16:11
Off-side
VGK 1·DAL 2
3rd·15:59
Sam Steel hit Rasmus Andersson
·
VGK 1·DAL 2
3rd·15:23
Giveaway by Mitch Marner
VGK 1·DAL 2
3rd·15:15
Ivan Barbashev Snap Shot Wide Right
·
VGK 1·DAL 2
3rd·14:21
Jack Eichel faceoff won against Wyatt Johnston
·
VGK 1·DAL 2
3rd·14:21
Off-side
VGK 1·DAL 2

Betting line

DAL -1.5·O/U 5.5·VGK +124/DAL -148

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

allas Stars held off Vegas Golden Knights, 2–1.

VGK +1.5 cashed (DAL won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

66.6%

ensemble · DAL favored

Elo Static
66.6%
P(DAL win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
66.6%
P(DAL win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
66.6%
P(DAL win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-148

Close price

-148

Open no-vig

57.2%

Close no-vig

57.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in VGK at DAL?: The model favors DAL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Vegas Golden KnightsDallas Stars

Elsewhere in the NHL