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FINAL+1DAL
VGK

VGK

29-22-14

12
DAL

DAL

40-14-10

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLTue, Mar 10FinalSeriesDAL leads series 2-0VegasDAL -148

Recap · NHL

allas Stars held off Vegas Golden Knights, 2–1.

VGK +1.5 cashed (DAL won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

VGK · top performer

VGK
Ivan Barbashev

Ivan Barbashev

LW · #49

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

DAL · top performer

DAL
Oskar Back

Oskar Back

C · #10

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Vegas Golden Knights at Dallas Stars · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
1
2
VGK29-22-14DAL40-14-10
VGK

VGK

29-22-14

1
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
DAL

DAL

40-14-10

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

PIM

6

Season series

DAL leads series 2-0

Jan 30DALDAL5@VGKVGK4
Mar 11VGKVGK1@DALDAL2today
Mar 22VGKVGK3@DALDAL2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

VGKVGK+12445%
DALDAL-14860%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DAL beat VGK 2-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
VGK0101
DAL0202

Period scoring

VGK won 0 · DAL won 1

0
0

1

1
2

2

0
0

3

VGK
DAL

Play-by-play · 273 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    VGK 1·DAL 2

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    VGK 1·DAL 2

  3. 3rd·19:57

    Shea Theodore Slap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    VGK 1·DAL 2

  4. 3rd·19:39

    Wyatt Johnston faceoff won against Tomas Hertl

    ·

    VGK 1·DAL 2

  5. 3rd·19:39

    Icing

    VGK 1·DAL 2

  6. 3rd·19:33

    Giveaway by Jack Eichel

    VGK 1·DAL 2

  7. 3rd·19:33

    Wyatt Johnston Wrist Shot Wide Left

    VGK 1·DAL 2

  8. 3rd·19:23

    Tomas Hertl Tip-In saved by Jake Oettinger

    ·

    VGK 1·DAL 2

  9. 3rd·18:41

    Shea Theodore Snap Shot saved by Jake Oettinger

    ·

    VGK 1·DAL 2

  10. 3rd·18:28

    Mitch Marner shot blocked by Jason Robertson

    ·

    VGK 1·DAL 2

  11. 3rd·18:11

    Mitch Marner shot blocked by Esa Lindell

    ·

    VGK 1·DAL 2

  12. 3rd·17:56

    Takeaway by Jason Robertson

    VGK 1·DAL 2

  13. 3rd·17:35

    Wyatt Johnston hit Kaedan Korczak

    ·

    VGK 1·DAL 2

  14. 3rd·17:22

    Kaedan Korczak Snap Shot saved by Jake Oettinger

    ·

    VGK 1·DAL 2

  15. 3rd·17:15

    Jeremy Lauzon hit Justin Hryckowian

    ·

    VGK 1·DAL 2

  16. 3rd·17:09

    Justin Hryckowian faceoff won against Nic Dowd

    ·

    VGK 1·DAL 2

  17. 3rd·17:09

    Goalie Stopped

    VGK 1·DAL 2

  18. 3rd·17:07

    Michael Bunting Snap Shot saved by Adin Hill

    ·

    VGK 1·DAL 2

  19. 3rd·17:07

    Giveaway by Noah Hanifin

    VGK 1·DAL 2

  20. 3rd·16:49

    Noah Hanifin shot blocked by Colin Blackwell

    ·

    VGK 1·DAL 2

  21. 3rd·16:22

    Noah Hanifin shot blocked by Lian Bichsel

    ·

    VGK 1·DAL 2

  22. 3rd·16:19

    Colton Sissons faceoff won against Arttu Hyry

    ·

    VGK 1·DAL 2

  23. 3rd·16:19

    Icing

    VGK 1·DAL 2

  24. 3rd·16:11

    Arttu Hyry faceoff won against Nic Dowd

    ·

    VGK 1·DAL 2

  25. 3rd·16:11

    Off-side

    VGK 1·DAL 2

  26. 3rd·15:59

    Sam Steel hit Rasmus Andersson

    ·

    VGK 1·DAL 2

  27. 3rd·15:23

    Giveaway by Mitch Marner

    VGK 1·DAL 2

  28. 3rd·15:15

    Ivan Barbashev Snap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    VGK 1·DAL 2

  29. 3rd·14:21

    Jack Eichel faceoff won against Wyatt Johnston

    ·

    VGK 1·DAL 2

  30. 3rd·14:21

    Off-side

    VGK 1·DAL 2

Team stats

VGK

Away

Stat

DAL

Home

27

Shots

16

0.0

PCT

20.0

10

PIM

6

20

Faceoffs W

25

10

Blocks

17

14

Giveaways

11

2

Takeaways

2

Betting line

DAL -1.5·O/U 5.5·VGK +124/DAL -148

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Jack EichelVGK · C
    DIST MI58.999+
  • Shea TheodoreVGK · D
    SKATE MPH23.399
  • Noah HanifinVGK · D
    BURSTS1998
  • Rasmus AnderssonVGK · D
    DIST MI54.196
  • Brett HowdenVGK · C
    BURSTS4295

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · DAL favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DAL win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DAL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-148

Close price

-148

Open no-vig

57.2%

Close no-vig

57.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR