Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ANA at WPG?

The model favors ANA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3ANA

ANA

36-25-3

WPG

26-27-10

NHLTue, Mar 10FinalSeriesANA wins series 3-0VegasWPG -130

ANA · top performer

Ryan Poehling

C · #25

2Points

—

SOG

WPG · top performer

Morgan Barron

C · #36

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. CarlssonC · #91	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	16:12
C. GauthierLW · #61	0	0	-1	6	1	0	0	15:41
M. GranlundC · #64	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	18:58
J. HarkinsC · #24	0	1	1	4	2	1	0	8:37
R. JohnstonLW · #44	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	8:49
A. KillornLW · #17	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	17:50
C. KreiderLW · #20	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	14:57
M. McTavishC · #23	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	14:42
R. PoehlingC · #25	1	1	3	5	3	0	0	16:06
B. SenneckeRW · #45	0	0	0	2	0	2	4	17:37
J. VielLW · #28	0	0	2	1	0	0	2	13:18
T. WasheC · #42	1	0	2	2	1	0	0	13:04

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. GudasD · #7	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	16:14
J. LaCombeD · #2	1	1	2	4	0	1	0	27:21
P. MintyukovD · #98	0	0	-1	0	0	2	0	16:19
I. MooreD · #3	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	15:19
J. TroubaD · #65	0	1	1	2	1	2	0	27:02
O. ZellwegerD · #51	0	0	2	2	1	2	0	16:26

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. DostalG · #1	13	1	12	.923	59:28

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BarronC · #36	1	0	0	2	1	0	0	11:50
K. ConnorLW · #81	0	0	-3	0	1	0	0	23:26
A. IafalloLW · #9	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	13:58
C. KoepkeLW · #45	0	0	-1	2	1	0	0	9:57
B. LambertC · #93	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	11:45
A. LowryC · #17	0	0	0	0	4	2	2	14:15
G. NyquistRW · #14	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	12:23
C. PerfettiC · #91	0	1	0	0	2	0	2	16:15
I. RosenRW · #27	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	12:12
M. ScheifeleC · #55	0	0	-3	0	1	1	0	23:48
J. ToewsC · #19	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	13:08
G. VilardiC · #13	0	0	-3	0	0	2	0	20:30

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BrysonD · #78	0	0	-2	0	0	1	0	13:18
D. DeMeloD · #2	0	0	-1	1	1	2	0	21:14
H. FleuryD · #24	0	0	-2	1	0	1	0	17:41
J. MorrisseyD · #44	0	0	-2	0	0	2	0	24:54
E. SalomonssonD · #57	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	18:28
D. SambergD · #54	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	19:40

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. HellebuyckG · #37	34	3	31	.912	57:18

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

ANA

Away

Stat

WPG

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

ANA wins series 3-0

Nov 10

WPG1@

ANA4

Feb 28

WPG4@

ANA5

Mar 11

ANA4@

WPG1today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

WPG -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

ANA+11048%

WPG-13057%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet WPG -1.5↗SpreadBet WPG -1.5↗

Line movement · 32 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

ANA beat WPG 4-1. R. Poehling led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
ANA	0	3	1	4
WPG	0	1	0	1

Period scoring

ANA won 2 · WPG won 0

ANA

WPG

Play-by-play · 266 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
ANA 4·WPG 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
ANA 4·WPG 1
3rd·19:40
Morgan Barron faceoff won against Tim Washe
·
ANA 4·WPG 1
3rd·19:40
Icing
ANA 4·WPG 1
3rd·19:34
Tim Washe faceoff won against Morgan Barron
·
ANA 4·WPG 1
3rd·19:34
Jackson LaCombe Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jacob Trouba (21)
·
ANA 4·WPG 1
3rd·19:03
Kyle Connor shot blocked by Jackson LaCombe
·
ANA 3·WPG 1
3rd·19:00
Jonathan Toews faceoff won against Tim Washe
·
ANA 3·WPG 1
3rd·19:00
Puck in Crowd
ANA 3·WPG 1
3rd·18:46
Jonathan Toews faceoff won against Tim Washe
·
ANA 3·WPG 1
3rd·18:46
Off-side
ANA 3·WPG 1
3rd·18:32
Haydn Fleury shot blocked by Beckett Sennecke
·
ANA 3·WPG 1
3rd·18:23
Haydn Fleury Wrist Shot High and Wide Right
·
ANA 3·WPG 1
3rd·18:13
Mark Scheifele shot blocked by Jacob Trouba
·
ANA 3·WPG 1
3rd·18:07
Dylan DeMelo hit Beckett Sennecke
·
ANA 3·WPG 1
3rd·18:01
Gabriel Vilardi Tip-In Wide Right
·
ANA 3·WPG 1
3rd·17:34
Elias Salomonsson shot blocked by Olen Zellweger
·
ANA 3·WPG 1
3rd·17:21
Takeaway by Beckett Sennecke
ANA 3·WPG 1
3rd·17:19
Giveaway by Olen Zellweger
ANA 3·WPG 1
3rd·17:16
Olen Zellweger Wrist Shot Wide Left
ANA 3·WPG 1
3rd·16:58
Ryan Poehling hit Gabriel Vilardi
·
ANA 3·WPG 1
3rd·16:53
Olen Zellweger hit Mark Scheifele
·
ANA 3·WPG 1
3rd·16:38
Mark Scheifele faceoff won against Ryan Poehling
·
ANA 3·WPG 1
3rd·16:38
Off-side
ANA 3·WPG 1
3rd·16:27
Dylan DeMelo Wrist Shot saved by Lukas Dostal
·
ANA 3·WPG 1
3rd·16:03
Adam Lowry faceoff won against Leo Carlsson
·
ANA 3·WPG 1
3rd·16:03
Off-side
ANA 3·WPG 1
3rd·15:12
Adam Lowry faceoff won against Mikael Granlund
·
ANA 3·WPG 1
3rd·15:12
Goalie Stopped
ANA 3·WPG 1
3rd·15:11
Jacob Trouba Slap Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck
· ·
ANA 3·WPG 1

Betting line

WPG -1.5·O/U 6.5·ANA +110/WPG -130

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

naheim Ducks went into Winnipeg Jets and beat them, 4–1.

ANA +1.5 cashed (WPG lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.0%

ensemble · WPG favored

Elo Static
51.0%
P(WPG win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
51.0%
P(WPG win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
51.0%
P(WPG win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+110

Close price

+110

Open no-vig

45.7%

Close no-vig

45.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ANA at WPG?: The model favors ANA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Anaheim DucksWinnipeg Jets

Elsewhere in the NHL