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FINAL+3ANA
ANA

ANA

36-25-3

41
WPG

WPG

26-27-10

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLTue, Mar 10FinalSeriesANA wins series 3-0VegasWPG -130

Recap · NHL

naheim Ducks went into Winnipeg Jets and beat them, 4–1.

ANA +1.5 cashed (WPG lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ANA · top performer

ANA
Alex Killorn

Alex Killorn

LW · #17

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

WPG · top performer

WPG
Morgan Barron

Morgan Barron

C · #36

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Anaheim Ducks at Winnipeg Jets · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
4
1
ANA36-25-3WPG26-27-10
ANA

ANA

36-25-3

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
WPG

WPG

26-27-10

1
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

PIM

4

Season series

ANA wins series 3-0

Nov 10WPGWPG1@ANAANA4
Feb 28WPGWPG4@ANAANA5
Mar 11ANAANA4@WPGWPG1today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

WPG -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

ANAANA+11048%
WPGWPG-13057%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet WPG -1.5↗SpreadBet WPG -1.5↗

Line movement · 14 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

ANA beat WPG 4-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
ANA0314
WPG0101

Period scoring

ANA won 2 · WPG won 0

0
0

1

3
1

2

1
0

3

ANA
WPG

Play-by-play · 266 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    ANA 4·WPG 1

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    ANA 4·WPG 1

  3. 3rd·19:40

    Morgan Barron faceoff won against Tim Washe

    ·

    ANA 4·WPG 1

  4. 3rd·19:40

    Icing

    ANA 4·WPG 1

  5. 3rd·19:34

    Tim Washe faceoff won against Morgan Barron

    ·

    ANA 4·WPG 1

  6. 3rd·19:34

    Jackson LaCombe Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jacob Trouba (21)

    ·

    ANA 4·WPG 1

  7. 3rd·19:03

    Kyle Connor shot blocked by Jackson LaCombe

    ·

    ANA 3·WPG 1

  8. 3rd·19:00

    Jonathan Toews faceoff won against Tim Washe

    ·

    ANA 3·WPG 1

  9. 3rd·19:00

    Puck in Crowd

    ANA 3·WPG 1

  10. 3rd·18:46

    Jonathan Toews faceoff won against Tim Washe

    ·

    ANA 3·WPG 1

  11. 3rd·18:46

    Off-side

    ANA 3·WPG 1

  12. 3rd·18:32

    Haydn Fleury shot blocked by Beckett Sennecke

    ·

    ANA 3·WPG 1

  13. 3rd·18:23

    Haydn Fleury Wrist Shot High and Wide Right

    ·

    ANA 3·WPG 1

  14. 3rd·18:13

    Mark Scheifele shot blocked by Jacob Trouba

    ·

    ANA 3·WPG 1

  15. 3rd·18:07

    Dylan DeMelo hit Beckett Sennecke

    ·

    ANA 3·WPG 1

  16. 3rd·18:01

    Gabriel Vilardi Tip-In Wide Right

    ·

    ANA 3·WPG 1

  17. 3rd·17:34

    Elias Salomonsson shot blocked by Olen Zellweger

    ·

    ANA 3·WPG 1

  18. 3rd·17:21

    Takeaway by Beckett Sennecke

    ANA 3·WPG 1

  19. 3rd·17:19

    Giveaway by Olen Zellweger

    ANA 3·WPG 1

  20. 3rd·17:16

    Olen Zellweger Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ANA 3·WPG 1

  21. 3rd·16:58

    Ryan Poehling hit Gabriel Vilardi

    ·

    ANA 3·WPG 1

  22. 3rd·16:53

    Olen Zellweger hit Mark Scheifele

    ·

    ANA 3·WPG 1

  23. 3rd·16:38

    Mark Scheifele faceoff won against Ryan Poehling

    ·

    ANA 3·WPG 1

  24. 3rd·16:38

    Off-side

    ANA 3·WPG 1

  25. 3rd·16:27

    Dylan DeMelo Wrist Shot saved by Lukas Dostal

    ·

    ANA 3·WPG 1

  26. 3rd·16:03

    Adam Lowry faceoff won against Leo Carlsson

    ·

    ANA 3·WPG 1

  27. 3rd·16:03

    Off-side

    ANA 3·WPG 1

  28. 3rd·15:12

    Adam Lowry faceoff won against Mikael Granlund

    ·

    ANA 3·WPG 1

  29. 3rd·15:12

    Goalie Stopped

    ANA 3·WPG 1

  30. 3rd·15:11

    Jacob Trouba Slap Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck

    · ·

    ANA 3·WPG 1

Team stats

ANA

Away

Stat

WPG

Home

35

Shots

13

0.0

PCT

0.0

6

PIM

4

22

Faceoffs W

29

11

Blocks

12

13

Giveaways

12

4

Takeaways

3

Betting line

WPG -1.5·O/U 6.5·ANA +110/WPG -130

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Kyle ConnorWPG · LW
    DIST MI293.099+
  • Cole KoepkeWPG · LW
    SKATE MPH24.299
  • Morgan BarronWPG · C
    SHOT MPH95.697
  • Josh MorrisseyWPG · D
    DIST MI282.397
  • Leo CarlssonANA · C
    BURSTS4996

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · WPG favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(WPG win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(WPG win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(WPG win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+110

Close price

+110

Open no-vig

45.7%

Close no-vig

45.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR