Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYY at CHW?

The model favors CHW, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 28, 2026

FINAL+1NYY

NYY

61-46

CHW

55-51

Rate Field · Chicago, Illinois

33,743 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CHW spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

CHW no-vig %

45.1%

open 42.8% · +2.3

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHW favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.2%

ensemble · CHW favored

Elo Static
52.8%
P(CHW win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
52.1%
P(CHW win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
53.0%
P(CHW win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.38 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+2.25

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+123

Close price

+112

Open no-vig

42.8%

Close no-vig

45.1%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYY at CHW?: The model favors CHW, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+3.1pp

best edge · CHW · DraftKings

NYY

no live price

CHW

★ best

-121DraftKings

edge +3.1pp · implied 51.4%

Book	NYY	CHW	Best edge
DraftKings	-107	-121★	+3.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CHW vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 117 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cam SchlittlerNYY
7.8± 2.6high
Sean BurkeCHW
7.1± 2.4high
Gerrit ColeNYY
6.2± 2.7low

Hits

Luis Garcia Jr.NYY
1.2± 1.0high
Munetaka MurakamiCHW
1.1± 0.8high
Heliot RamosNYY
1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

Luis Garcia Jr.NYY
2.5± 2.8high
Munetaka MurakamiCHW
2.3± 2.7high
Miguel VargasCHW
1.8± 1.7high

RBIs

Munetaka MurakamiCHW
0.8± 1.9high
Luis Garcia Jr.NYY
0.8± 0.9high
Miguel VargasCHW
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Noah SchultzCHW
3.4± 2.6low
Davis MartinCHW
3.1± 3.4high
Luis CastilloCHW
2.5± 1.6high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYY

league avg

CHW

.722

OPS

.719

.310

OBP

.318

▶

.315

4.54

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.72

3.33

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.08

1.19

WHIP

◀

1.30

9.0

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

NYY 3 · CHW 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CHW +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
NYY	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
CHW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. Goldschmidt1B	.255	3	0	0	0	0	2	1
B. Rice1B	.272	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. Rosario3B	.235	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
J. DominguezRF	.239	3	1	2	0	0	0	0
T. GrishamCF	.216	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
A. VolpeSS	.256	4	1	1	1	0	0	1
J. Chisholm Jr.2B	.224	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
M. SchuemannLF	.212	2	0	1	2	0	0	0
A. WellsC	.162	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. McMahon3B	.211	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. JonesCF	.213	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		32	3	6	3	0	4	10

Player

.255

.272

.235

.239

.216

.256

.224

.212

.162

.211

.213

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. ColeSP	6.0	4	0	0	2	7	99
A. ChivilliRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	8
B. HeadrickRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	5
D. BednarRP	1.0	2	2	2	0	3	25
Team	9.0	7	2	2	2	10	137

Player

6.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

137

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AntonacciLF	.282	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Murakami1B	.240	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
M. Vargas3B	.242	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
C. MontgomerySS	.221	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. BenintendiDH	.241	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
B. MontgomeryRF	.257	3	1	2	0	0	1	1
T. PetersCF	.277	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. Meidroth2B	.276	4	1	1	2	1	0	0
D. RomoC	.137	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
R. GrichukDH	.262	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. PereiraRF	.222	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		34	2	7	2	1	2	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. KaySP	5.1	5	3	3	1	7	97
J. HicksRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	2	9
T. SchweitzerRP	3.0	1	0	0	2	1	38
Team	9.0	6	3	3	4	10	144

Team

NYY

CHW

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

CHW vs NYY.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CHW vs NYY.

3 sub-models, blended.