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FINAL+7EDM
EDM

EDM

29-23-8

81
LA

LA

23-21-14

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Feb 26FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasEDM -120

Recap · NHL

dmonton Oilers went into Los Angeles Kings and beat them, 8–1.

EDM -1.5 cashed (won by 7). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

EDM · top performer

EDM
Leon Draisaitl

Leon Draisaitl

C · #29

4Points

1

G

3

A

—

SOG

LA · top performer

LA
Warren Foegele

Warren Foegele

LW · #37

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Edmonton Oilers at Los Angeles Kings · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
8
1
EDM29-23-8LA23-21-14
EDM

EDM

29-23-8

8
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
LA

LA

23-21-14

1
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

PIM

6

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jan 11LALA4@EDMEDM3
Feb 27EDMEDM8@LALA1today
Apr 11EDMEDM0@LALA1

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

EDM -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

EDMEDM-12055%
LALA+10050%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet EDM -1.5↗SpreadBet EDM -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

EDM beat LA 8-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
EDM2338
LA1001

Period scoring

EDM won 3 · LA won 0

2
1

1

3
0

2

3
0

3

EDM
LA

Play-by-play · 295 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    EDM 8·LA 1

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    EDM 8·LA 1

  3. 3rd·19:56

    Alex Laferriere shot blocked by Adam Henrique

    ·

    EDM 8·LA 1

  4. 3rd·19:28

    Taylor Ward Tip-In Hit Left Post

    ·

    EDM 8·LA 1

  5. 3rd·19:22

    Alex Laferriere Snap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    EDM 8·LA 1

  6. 3rd·19:20

    Giveaway by Connor Ingram

    EDM 8·LA 1

  7. 3rd·18:47

    Warren Foegele Wrist Shot saved by Connor Ingram

    ·

    EDM 8·LA 1

  8. 3rd·18:46

    Giveaway by Spencer Stastney

    EDM 8·LA 1

  9. 3rd·18:40

    Alex Turcotte faceoff won against Adam Henrique

    ·

    EDM 8·LA 1

  10. 3rd·18:40

    Puck in Benches

    EDM 8·LA 1

  11. 3rd·18:32

    Adam Henrique faceoff won against Alex Turcotte

    ·

    EDM 8·LA 1

  12. 3rd·18:32

    Goalie Stopped

    EDM 8·LA 1

  13. 3rd·18:30

    Jeff Malott Wrist Shot High and Wide Right

    ·

    EDM 8·LA 1

  14. 3rd·18:24

    Cody Ceci shot blocked by Taylor Ward

    ·

    EDM 8·LA 1

  15. 3rd·17:39

    Alex Laferriere Wrist Shot saved by Connor Ingram

    ·

    EDM 8·LA 1

  16. 3rd·17:23

    Jake Walman Wrist Shot saved by Anton Forsberg

    ·

    EDM 8·LA 1

  17. 3rd·17:15

    Trent Frederic Wrist Shot saved by Anton Forsberg

    ·

    EDM 8·LA 1

  18. 3rd·17:06

    Alex Turcotte hit Darnell Nurse

    ·

    EDM 8·LA 1

  19. 3rd·15:04

    Curtis Lazar faceoff won against Anze Kopitar

    ·

    EDM 8·LA 1

  20. 3rd·15:04

    Icing

    EDM 8·LA 1

  21. 3rd·14:57

    Giveaway by Brandt Clarke

    EDM 8·LA 1

  22. 3rd·14:00

    Alex Laferriere hit Jake Walman

    ·

    EDM 8·LA 1

  23. 3rd·13:36

    Vasily Podkolzin hit Mikey Anderson

    ·

    EDM 8·LA 1

  24. 3rd·13:30

    Giveaway by Trevor Moore

    EDM 8·LA 1

  25. 3rd·13:15

    Alex Laferriere faceoff won against Adam Henrique

    ·

    EDM 8·LA 1

  26. 3rd·13:15

    Goalie Stopped

    EDM 8·LA 1

  27. 3rd·13:13

    Andrew Mangiapane Slap Shot saved by Anton Forsberg

    ·

    EDM 8·LA 1

  28. 3rd·12:53

    Mattias Ekholm Slap Shot saved by Anton Forsberg

    ·

    EDM 8·LA 1

  29. 3rd·12:31

    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Wrist Shot saved by Anton Forsberg

    ·

    EDM 8·LA 1

  30. 3rd·12:30

    Connor McDavid shot blocked by Brian Dumoulin

    ·

    EDM 8·LA 1

Team stats

EDM

Away

Stat

LA

Home

37

Shots

22

66.7

PCT

0.0

4

PIM

6

40

Faceoffs W

20

14

Blocks

11

11

Giveaways

12

4

Takeaways

3

Betting line

EDM -1.5·O/U 6.5·EDM -120/LA +100

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 skaters with EDGE
  • Jake WalmanEDM · D
    SHOT MPH99.599
  • Connor McDavidEDM · C
    BURSTS5498
  • Evan BouchardEDM · D
    SHOT MPH97.395
  • Darnell NurseEDM · D
    BURSTS1389
  • Spencer StastneyEDM · D
    BURSTS6788

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · LA favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(LA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(LA win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(LA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+100

Close price

+100

Open no-vig

47.8%

Close no-vig

47.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR