NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1NYI

NYI

33-21-5

MTL

32-17-9

NHLThu, Feb 26FinalSeriesNYI lead series 1-0VegasMTL -155

NYI · top performer

Matthew Schaefer

D · #48

2Points

—

SOG

MTL · top performer

Noah Dobson

D · #53

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BarzalC · #13	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	22:19
C. CizikasC · #53	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	12:52
J. DrouinLW · #29	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	14:27
M. GatcombC · #16	0	0	0	0	6	1	0	8:59
E. HeinemanLW · #51	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	13:43
S. HolmstromRW · #10	0	2	2	1	0	1	2	16:02
B. HorvatC · #14	0	1	1	6	3	2	0	23:50
A. LeeLW · #27	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	14:15
K. MacLeanC · #32	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	9:29
J. PageauC · #44	1	0	1	3	5	0	0	14:51
O. PalatLW · #81	0	0	0	0	1	5	0	16:25
C. RitchieC · #64	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	14:26

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. DeAngeloD · #77	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	20:45
S. MayfieldD · #24	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	13:52
A. PelechD · #3	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	22:04
R. PulockD · #6	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	21:43
M. SchaeferD · #48	2	0	1	3	0	2	0	25:56
C. SoucyD · #4	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	14:51

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. SorokinG · #30	25	3	22	.880	61:01

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AndersonRW · #17	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	11:55
C. CaufieldRW · #13	1	0	1	4	0	1	0	21:09
K. DachC · #77	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	16:09
P. DanaultC · #24	0	0	-2	0	1	0	0	13:08
I. DemidovRW · #93	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	17:04
J. EvansC · #71	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	13:25
B. GallagherRW · #11	0	0	0	1	3	3	0	11:03
O. KapanenC · #91	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	12:09
A. NewhookC · #15	0	1	0	1	2	1	0	13:18
J. SlafkovskyLW · #20	0	1	-2	0	1	3	2	18:42
N. SuzukiC · #14	0	0	-1	6	3	0	0	24:36
A. TexierLW · #85	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	13:01

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. CarrierD · #45	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	15:29
N. DobsonD · #53	2	0	-2	3	0	1	0	21:54
K. GuhleD · #21	0	0	0	2	2	4	0	21:37
L. HutsonD · #48	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	24:00
M. MathesonD · #8	0	0	-2	1	1	2	2	21:45
A. XhekajD · #72	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	11:58

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. MontembeaultG · #35	26	4	22	.846	61:16

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

NYI

Away

Stat

MTL

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

66.7

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

NYI lead series 1-0

Feb 27

NYI4@

MTL3today

Mar 21

NYI3@

MTL7

Apr 12

MTL4@

NYI1

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MTL -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NYI+13043%

MTL-15561%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MTL -1.5↗SpreadBet MTL -1.5↗

Line movement · 20 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NYI beat MTL 4-3. M. Schaefer led the way — 2 G · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
NYI	0	2	1	1	4
MTL	1	1	1	0	3

Period scoring

NYI won 2 · MTL won 1

NYI

MTL

Play-by-play · 338 plays

period

event

player

OT·1:46
Game End
NYI 4·MTL 3
OT·1:46
End of OT
NYI 4·MTL 3
OT·1:46
Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Simon Holmstrom (18)
·
NYI 4·MTL 3
OT·1:37
Phillip Danault faceoff won against Jean-Gabriel Pageau
·
NYI 3·MTL 3
OT·1:37
Puck in Netting
NYI 3·MTL 3
OT·1:35
Ivan Demidov shot blocked by Matthew Schaefer
·
NYI 3·MTL 3
OT·0:25
Nick Suzuki faceoff won against Bo Horvat
·
NYI 3·MTL 3
OT·0:25
Goalie Stopped
NYI 3·MTL 3
OT·0:22
Nick Suzuki Snap Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
NYI 3·MTL 3
OT·0:00
Phillip Danault faceoff won against Bo Horvat
·
NYI 3·MTL 3
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
NYI 3·MTL 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
NYI 3·MTL 3
3rd·19:49
Giveaway by Adam Pelech
NYI 3·MTL 3
3rd·19:36
Giveaway by Mathew Barzal
NYI 3·MTL 3
3rd·19:17
Bo Horvat Snap Shot saved by Samuel Montembeault
·
NYI 3·MTL 3
3rd·18:59
Bo Horvat faceoff won against Nick Suzuki
·
NYI 3·MTL 3
3rd·18:59
Timeout - Home
NYI 3·MTL 3
3rd·18:59
Puck in Crowd
NYI 3·MTL 3
3rd·18:19
Jake Evans faceoff won against Jonathan Drouin
·
NYI 3·MTL 3
3rd·18:19
Anders Lee Goal (12) Deflected, assists: Bo Horvat (17), Simon Holmstrom (17)
· ·
NYI 3·MTL 3
3rd·17:58
Matthew Schaefer Snap Shot saved by Samuel Montembeault
·
NYI 2·MTL 3
3rd·17:29
Cole Caufield shot blocked by Ondrej Palat
·
NYI 2·MTL 3
3rd·17:17
Bo Horvat shot blocked by Noah Dobson
·
NYI 2·MTL 3
3rd·17:01
Giveaway by Mathew Barzal
NYI 2·MTL 3
3rd·16:33
Giveaway by Tony DeAngelo
NYI 2·MTL 3
3rd·16:02
Jake Evans faceoff won against Calum Ritchie
·
NYI 2·MTL 3
3rd·16:02
Off-side
NYI 2·MTL 3
3rd·15:35
Ryan Pulock Slap Shot Wide Left
·
NYI 2·MTL 3
3rd·15:35
Ryan Pulock Slap Shot Wide Left
·
NYI 2·MTL 3
3rd·15:33
Alex Newhook faceoff won against Calum Ritchie
·
NYI 2·MTL 3

Betting line

MTL -1.5·O/U 5.5·NYI +130/MTL -155

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ew York Islanders went into Montreal Canadiens and beat them, 4–3 in overtime.

NYI +1.5 cashed (MTL lost outright). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.1%

ensemble · MTL favored

Elo Static
58.1%
P(MTL win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
58.1%
P(MTL win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
58.1%
P(MTL win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Team pages

New York IslandersMontreal Canadiens

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