NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1NYI

NYI

33-21-5

MTL

32-17-9

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Feb 26FinalSeriesNYI lead series 1-0VegasMTL -155

Recap · NHL

ew York Islanders went into Montreal Canadiens and beat them, 4–3 in overtime.

NYI +1.5 cashed (MTL lost outright). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYI · top performer

Simon Holmstrom

RW · #10

2Points

—

SOG

MTL · top performer

Cole Caufield

RW · #13

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

NYI33-21-5

MTL32-17-9

NYI33-21-5MTL32-17-9

NYI

33-21-5

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

MTL

32-17-9

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

NYI lead series 1-0

Feb 27

NYI4@

MTL3today

Mar 21

NYI3@

MTL7

Apr 12

MTL4@

NYI1

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MTL -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NYI+13043%

MTL-15561%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MTL -1.5↗SpreadBet MTL -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NYI beat MTL 4-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
NYI	0	2	1	1	4
MTL	1	1	1	0	3

Period scoring

NYI won 2 · MTL won 1

NYI

MTL

Play-by-play · 338 plays

period

event

player

OT·1:46
Game End
NYI 4·MTL 3
OT·1:46
End of OT
NYI 4·MTL 3
OT·1:46
Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Simon Holmstrom (18)
·
NYI 4·MTL 3
OT·1:37
Phillip Danault faceoff won against Jean-Gabriel Pageau
·
NYI 3·MTL 3
OT·1:37
Puck in Netting
NYI 3·MTL 3
OT·1:35
Ivan Demidov shot blocked by Matthew Schaefer
·
NYI 3·MTL 3
OT·0:25
Nick Suzuki faceoff won against Bo Horvat
·
NYI 3·MTL 3
OT·0:25
Goalie Stopped
NYI 3·MTL 3
OT·0:22
Nick Suzuki Snap Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
NYI 3·MTL 3
OT·0:00
Phillip Danault faceoff won against Bo Horvat
·
NYI 3·MTL 3
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
NYI 3·MTL 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
NYI 3·MTL 3
3rd·19:49
Giveaway by Adam Pelech
NYI 3·MTL 3
3rd·19:36
Giveaway by Mathew Barzal
NYI 3·MTL 3
3rd·19:17
Bo Horvat Snap Shot saved by Samuel Montembeault
·
NYI 3·MTL 3
3rd·18:59
Bo Horvat faceoff won against Nick Suzuki
·
NYI 3·MTL 3
3rd·18:59
Timeout - Home
NYI 3·MTL 3
3rd·18:59
Puck in Crowd
NYI 3·MTL 3
3rd·18:19
Jake Evans faceoff won against Jonathan Drouin
·
NYI 3·MTL 3
3rd·18:19
Anders Lee Goal (12) Deflected, assists: Bo Horvat (17), Simon Holmstrom (17)
· ·
NYI 3·MTL 3
3rd·17:58
Matthew Schaefer Snap Shot saved by Samuel Montembeault
·
NYI 2·MTL 3
3rd·17:29
Cole Caufield shot blocked by Ondrej Palat
·
NYI 2·MTL 3
3rd·17:17
Bo Horvat shot blocked by Noah Dobson
·
NYI 2·MTL 3
3rd·17:01
Giveaway by Mathew Barzal
NYI 2·MTL 3
3rd·16:33
Giveaway by Tony DeAngelo
NYI 2·MTL 3
3rd·16:02
Jake Evans faceoff won against Calum Ritchie
·
NYI 2·MTL 3
3rd·16:02
Off-side
NYI 2·MTL 3
3rd·15:35
Ryan Pulock Slap Shot Wide Left
·
NYI 2·MTL 3
3rd·15:35
Ryan Pulock Slap Shot Wide Left
·
NYI 2·MTL 3
3rd·15:33
Alex Newhook faceoff won against Calum Ritchie
·
NYI 2·MTL 3

Team stats

NYI

Away

Stat

MTL

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

66.7

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

MTL -1.5·O/U 5.5·NYI +130/MTL -155

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE

Matthew SchaeferNYI · D
BURSTS26999+
Lane HutsonMTL · D
DIST MI71.899+
Ryan PulockNYI · D
SHOT MPH103.099+
Josh AndersonMTL · RW
BURSTS7699+
Mike MathesonMTL · D
DIST MI62.999

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · MTL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MTL win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MTL win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MTL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MTL vs NYI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

138

projections · 120 high confidence

Shots on goal

Bo HorvatNYI
2.9± 0.9high
Cole CaufieldMTL
2.8± 1.4high
Kyle PalmieriNYI
2.7± 1.6high

Goals

Cole CaufieldMTL
0.5± 0.5high
Alex NewhookMTL
0.4± 0.7high
Ivan DemidovMTL
0.3± 0.5high

Points

Cole CaufieldMTL
0.9± 0.7high
Lane HutsonMTL
0.9± 0.7high
Nick SuzukiMTL
0.9± 1.2high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands