Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SEA at STL?

The model favors SEA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4STL

SEA

27-22-9

STL

21-28-9

NHLThu, Feb 26FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasSTL -142

SEA · top performer

Kaapo Kakko

RW · #84

1Points

—

SOG

STL · top performer

Dylan Holloway

LW · #81

4Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BeniersC · #10	0	0	-2	1	0	0	0	18:58
B. CattonC · #27	0	0	-3	1	1	0	0	12:38
J. EberleRW · #7	0	0	-2	0	0	0	0	19:02
F. GaudreauC · #89	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	13:51
K. KakkoRW · #84	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	14:54
J. McCannLW · #19	0	0	-2	3	1	0	0	19:28
B. MeyersC · #59	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	12:38
J. SchwartzC · #17	0	0	1	1	0	2	0	15:33
C. StephensonC · #9	0	0	-4	2	0	1	0	17:11
E. TolvanenRW · #20	0	0	-3	2	1	0	0	14:00
R. WintertonC · #26	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:09
S. WrightC · #51	0	1	1	3	2	2	0	15:55

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. DunnD · #29	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	22:19
R. EvansD · #41	0	0	-1	2	0	2	0	18:32
A. LarssonD · #6	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	18:30
J. MahuraD · #28	0	0	-1	1	0	2	0	15:21
B. MontourD · #62	0	1	-3	3	1	2	0	20:36
J. OleksiakD · #24	0	0	-2	0	3	0	0	18:44

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. GrubauerG · #31	31	4	27	.871	58:41

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BerggrenRW · #29	0	2	3	1	0	0	0	15:00
P. BuchnevichLW · #89	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	16:44
D. DvorskyRW · #54	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	13:35
J. FinleyC · #37	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	13:17
D. HollowayLW · #81	3	1	4	5	0	0	0	16:04
J. KyrouRW · #25	1	0	2	4	0	1	0	15:54
J. NeighboursLW · #63	0	0	1	0	2	1	2	15:28
B. SchennC · #10	0	0	-1	3	2	0	0	13:03
J. SnuggerudRW · #21	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	13:27
P. SuterC · #22	1	2	3	3	1	1	0	15:33
A. ToropchenkoRW · #13	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	13:44
N. WalkerLW · #26	0	0	0	1	5	2	0	11:40

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. BrobergD · #6	0	0	1	1	0	2	0	22:30
J. FaulkD · #72	0	2	2	2	0	2	0	19:41
C. FowlerD · #17	0	0	1	3	0	0	2	18:37
L. MaillouxD · #23	0	0	1	4	1	1	0	19:01
C. ParaykoD · #55	0	1	1	0	2	1	0	21:37
T. TuckerD · #75	0	0	2	1	3	0	0	19:05

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. HoferG · #30	24	1	23	.958	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

SEA

Away

Stat

STL

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Nov 9

SEA4@

STL3

Feb 27

SEA1@

STL5today

Mar 5

STL3@

SEA2

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

STL -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

SEA+12045%

STL-14259%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet STL -1.5↗SpreadBet STL -1.5↗

Line movement · 24 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

STL beat SEA 5-1. D. Holloway led the way — 3 G · 1 A · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
SEA	1	0	0	1
STL	1	2	2	5

Period scoring

SEA won 0 · STL won 2

SEA

STL

Play-by-play · 279 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
SEA 1·STL 5
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
SEA 1·STL 5
3rd·19:15
Cam Fowler Wrist Shot saved by Philipp Grubauer
·
SEA 1·STL 5
3rd·19:00
Cam Fowler shot blocked by Jake Neighbours
·
SEA 1·STL 5
3rd·18:17
Kaapo Kakko Snap Shot Wide Left
·
SEA 1·STL 5
3rd·18:10
Shane Wright hit Jonatan Berggren
·
SEA 1·STL 5
3rd·18:04
Giveaway by Dylan Holloway
SEA 1·STL 5
3rd·17:08
Dalibor Dvorsky faceoff won against Ben Meyers
·
SEA 1·STL 5
3rd·17:08
Puck in Benches
SEA 1·STL 5
3rd·16:59
Ben Meyers faceoff won against Dalibor Dvorsky
·
SEA 1·STL 5
3rd·16:59
Objects on Ice
SEA 1·STL 5
3rd·16:59
Dylan Holloway Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Justin Faulk (21), Jack Finley (2)
· ·
SEA 1·STL 5
3rd·16:52
Jack Finley faceoff won against Chandler Stephenson
·
SEA 1·STL 4
3rd·16:52
Puck in Netting
SEA 1·STL 4
3rd·16:49
Vince Dunn Wrist Shot saved by Joel Hofer
·
SEA 1·STL 4
3rd·16:43
Chandler Stephenson faceoff won against Pavel Buchnevich
·
SEA 1·STL 4
3rd·16:43
Goalie Stopped
SEA 1·STL 4
3rd·16:41
Eeli Tolvanen Snap Shot saved by Joel Hofer
·
SEA 1·STL 4
3rd·16:26
Shane Wright faceoff won against Pavel Buchnevich
·
SEA 1·STL 4
3rd·16:26
Puck in Netting
SEA 1·STL 4
3rd·16:22
Matty Beniers Tip-In High and Wide Right
·
SEA 1·STL 4
3rd·15:18
Jack Finley Wrist Shot saved by Philipp Grubauer
·
SEA 1·STL 4
3rd·15:13
Brandon Montour Slap Shot High and Wide Right
·
SEA 1·STL 4
3rd·14:36
Jaden Schwartz faceoff won against Jack Finley
·
SEA 1·STL 4
3rd·14:36
High Stick
SEA 1·STL 4
3rd·14:32
Jack Finley faceoff won against Jaden Schwartz
·
SEA 1·STL 4
3rd·14:32
TV Timeout
SEA 1·STL 4
3rd·14:32
Too many men/ice served by Jonatan Berggren
SEA 1·STL 4
3rd·13:58
Giveaway by Matty Beniers
SEA 1·STL 4
3rd·13:50
Giveaway by Colton Parayko
SEA 1·STL 4

Betting line

STL -1.5·O/U 5.5·SEA +120/STL -142

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

t. Louis Blues held off Seattle Kraken, 5–1.

STL -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.4%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
49.4%
P(STL win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
49.4%
P(STL win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
49.4%
P(STL win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+120

Close price

+120

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

43.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SEA at STL?: The model favors SEA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Seattle KrakenSt. Louis Blues

Elsewhere in the NHL