NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4STL

SEA

27-22-9

STL

21-28-9

NHLThu, Feb 26FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasSTL -142

Recap · NHL

t. Louis Blues held off Seattle Kraken, 5–1.

STL -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SEA · top performer

Kaapo Kakko

RW · #84

1Points

—

SOG

STL · top performer

Dylan Holloway

LW · #81

4Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	G	A	+/-	S	HT	BS	PIM	TOI
M. BeniersC · #10	0	0	-2	1	0	0	0	18:58
B. CattonC · #27	0	0	-3	1	1	0	0	12:38
J. EberleRW · #7	0	0	-2	0	0	0	0	19:02
F. GaudreauC · #89	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	13:51
K. KakkoRW · #84	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	14:54
J. McCannLW · #19	0	0	-2	3	1	0	0	19:28
B. MeyersC · #59	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	12:38
J. SchwartzC · #17	0	0	1	1	0	2	0	15:33
C. StephensonC · #9	0	0	-4	2	0	1	0	17:11
E. TolvanenRW · #20	0	0	-3	2	1	0	0	14:00
R. WintertonC · #26	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:09
S. WrightC · #51	0	1	1	3	2	2	0	15:55

Defensemen

defenses box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	G	A	+/-	S	HT	BS	PIM	TOI
V. DunnD · #29	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	22:19
R. EvansD · #41	0	0	-1	2	0	2	0	18:32
A. LarssonD · #6	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	18:30
J. MahuraD · #28	0	0	-1	1	0	2	0	15:21
B. MontourD · #62	0	1	-3	3	1	2	0	20:36
J. OleksiakD · #24	0	0	-2	0	3	0	0	18:44

Goalies

goalies box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	SA	GA	SV	SV%	TOI
P. GrubauerG · #31	31	4	27	.871	58:41

Forwards

forwards box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	G	A	+/-	S	HT	BS	PIM	TOI
J. BerggrenRW · #29	0	2	3	1	0	0	0	15:00
P. BuchnevichLW · #89	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	16:44
D. DvorskyRW · #54	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	13:35
J. FinleyC · #37	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	13:17
D. HollowayLW · #81	3	1	4	5	0	0	0	16:04
J. KyrouRW · #25	1	0	2	4	0	1	0	15:54
J. NeighboursLW · #63	0	0	1	0	2	1	2	15:28
B. SchennC · #10	0	0	-1	3	2	0	0	13:03
J. SnuggerudRW · #21	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	13:27
P. SuterC · #22	1	2	3	3	1	1	0	15:33
A. ToropchenkoRW · #13	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	13:44
N. WalkerLW · #26	0	0	0	1	5	2	0	11:40

Defensemen

defenses box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	G	A	+/-	S	HT	BS	PIM	TOI
P. BrobergD · #6	0	0	1	1	0	2	0	22:30
J. FaulkD · #72	0	2	2	2	0	2	0	19:41
C. FowlerD · #17	0	0	1	3	0	0	2	18:37
L. MaillouxD · #23	0	0	1	4	1	1	0	19:01
C. ParaykoD · #55	0	1	1	0	2	1	0	21:37
T. TuckerD · #75	0	0	2	1	3	0	0	19:05

Goalies

goalies box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	SA	GA	SV	SV%	TOI
J. HoferG · #30	24	1	23	.958	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Nov 9

SEA4@

STL3

Feb 27

SEA1@

STL5today

Mar 5

STL3@

SEA2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

STL -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

SEA+12045%

STL-14259%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet STL -1.5↗SpreadBet STL -1.5↗

Line movement · 12 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

STL beat SEA 5-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
SEA	1	0	0	1
STL	1	2	2	5

Period scoring

SEA won 0 · STL won 2

SEA

STL

Play-by-play · 279 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
SEA 1·STL 5
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
SEA 1·STL 5
3rd·19:15
Cam Fowler Wrist Shot saved by Philipp Grubauer
·
SEA 1·STL 5
3rd·19:00
Cam Fowler shot blocked by Jake Neighbours
·
SEA 1·STL 5
3rd·18:17
Kaapo Kakko Snap Shot Wide Left
·
SEA 1·STL 5
3rd·18:10
Shane Wright hit Jonatan Berggren
·
SEA 1·STL 5
3rd·18:04
Giveaway by Dylan Holloway
SEA 1·STL 5
3rd·17:08
Dalibor Dvorsky faceoff won against Ben Meyers
·
SEA 1·STL 5
3rd·17:08
Puck in Benches
SEA 1·STL 5
3rd·16:59
Ben Meyers faceoff won against Dalibor Dvorsky
·
SEA 1·STL 5
3rd·16:59
Objects on Ice
SEA 1·STL 5
3rd·16:59
Dylan Holloway Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Justin Faulk (21), Jack Finley (2)
· ·
SEA 1·STL 5
3rd·16:52
Jack Finley faceoff won against Chandler Stephenson
·
SEA 1·STL 4
3rd·16:52
Puck in Netting
SEA 1·STL 4
3rd·16:49
Vince Dunn Wrist Shot saved by Joel Hofer
·
SEA 1·STL 4
3rd·16:43
Chandler Stephenson faceoff won against Pavel Buchnevich
·
SEA 1·STL 4
3rd·16:43
Goalie Stopped
SEA 1·STL 4
3rd·16:41
Eeli Tolvanen Snap Shot saved by Joel Hofer
·
SEA 1·STL 4
3rd·16:26
Shane Wright faceoff won against Pavel Buchnevich
·
SEA 1·STL 4
3rd·16:26
Puck in Netting
SEA 1·STL 4
3rd·16:22
Matty Beniers Tip-In High and Wide Right
·
SEA 1·STL 4
3rd·15:18
Jack Finley Wrist Shot saved by Philipp Grubauer
·
SEA 1·STL 4
3rd·15:13
Brandon Montour Slap Shot High and Wide Right
·
SEA 1·STL 4
3rd·14:36
Jaden Schwartz faceoff won against Jack Finley
·
SEA 1·STL 4
3rd·14:36
High Stick
SEA 1·STL 4
3rd·14:32
Jack Finley faceoff won against Jaden Schwartz
·
SEA 1·STL 4
3rd·14:32
TV Timeout
SEA 1·STL 4
3rd·14:32
Too many men/ice served by Jonatan Berggren
SEA 1·STL 4
3rd·13:58
Giveaway by Matty Beniers
SEA 1·STL 4
3rd·13:50
Giveaway by Colton Parayko
SEA 1·STL 4

Team stats

SEA

Away

Stat

STL

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

STL -1.5·O/U 5.5·SEA +120/STL -142

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE

Philip BrobergSTL · D
BURSTS15898
Brandon MontourSEA · D
SHOT MPH101.698
Matty BeniersSEA · C
DIST MI267.798
Jared McCannSEA · LW
SHOT MPH94.496
Colton ParaykoSTL · D
BURSTS9494

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.7%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
49.4%
P(STL win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
49.4%
P(STL win)
16%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
49.4%
P(STL win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+120

Close price

+120

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

43.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss