
TB
38-15-4

CAR
37-15-6
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · NHL
arolina Hurricanes held off Tampa Bay Lightning, 5–4.
TB +1.5 cashed (CAR won by 1). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 2.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
TB · top performer

Jake Guentzel
C · #59
0
G
3
A
—
SOG
CAR · top performer

Taylor Hall
LW · #71
1
G
1
A
—
SOG
NHL · Tampa Bay Lightning at Carolina Hurricanes · final
NHL · Box scoreEDGE


TB
38-15-4
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
CAR
37-15-6
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
4
PIM
4
Season series
Series tied 1-1
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
CAR -1.5
Total
6.5
Defensive · -2.0 vs avg
Moneyline
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 9 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
6.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
CAR beat TB 5-4.
Last play
Game End
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| CAR | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
Period scoring
TB won 1 · CAR won 2
1
2
3
Play-by-play · 336 plays
- 3rd·20:00
Game End
TB 4·CAR 5
- 3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
TB 4·CAR 5
- 3rd·19:45
Nikolaj Ehlers shot blocked by Victor Hedman
·
TB 4·CAR 5
- 3rd·19:44
Giveaway by Victor Hedman
TB 4·CAR 5
- 3rd·19:33
Sean Walker shot blocked by Darren Raddysh
·
TB 4·CAR 5
- 3rd·19:17
Sebastian Aho shot blocked by Darren Raddysh
·
TB 4·CAR 5
- 3rd·19:15
Jordan Martinook shot blocked by Oliver Bjorkstrand
·
TB 4·CAR 5
- 3rd·19:13
Andrei Svechnikov shot blocked by Oliver Bjorkstrand
·
TB 4·CAR 5
- 3rd·19:08
Giveaway by Nikita Kucherov
TB 4·CAR 5
- 3rd·19:00
Andrei Svechnikov Snap Shot Wide Right
TB 4·CAR 5
- 3rd·18:57
Giveaway by Nikita Kucherov
TB 4·CAR 5
- 3rd·18:51
Takeaway by Brandon Hagel
TB 4·CAR 5
- 3rd·18:43
Jaccob Slavin hit Nikita Kucherov
·
TB 4·CAR 5
- 3rd·18:39
Dominic James Tip-In saved by Brandon Bussi
·
TB 4·CAR 5
- 3rd·18:36
Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by Jaccob Slavin
·
TB 4·CAR 5
- 3rd·18:30
Jake Guentzel shot blocked by Dominic James
·
TB 4·CAR 5
- 3rd·18:07
Dominic James faceoff won against Sebastian Aho
·
TB 4·CAR 5
- 3rd·18:07
On-Ice Official
TB 4·CAR 5
- 3rd·18:00
Sebastian Aho faceoff won against Brayden Point
·
TB 4·CAR 5
- 3rd·18:00
Puck in Crowd
TB 4·CAR 5
- 3rd·17:30
Jordan Staal shot blocked by Oliver Bjorkstrand
·
TB 4·CAR 5
- 3rd·17:16
Brayden Point faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
TB 4·CAR 5
- 3rd·17:16
Goalie Stopped
TB 4·CAR 5
- 3rd·17:14
Darren Raddysh Slap Shot saved by Brandon Bussi
·
TB 4·CAR 5
- 3rd·17:10
Brayden Point Backhand saved by Brandon Bussi
·
TB 4·CAR 5
- 3rd·17:08
Brandon Hagel shot blocked by K'Andre Miller
·
TB 4·CAR 5
- 3rd·17:03
Brayden Point faceoff won against Logan Stankoven
·
TB 4·CAR 5
- 3rd·17:03
Icing
TB 4·CAR 5
- 3rd·16:41
Takeaway by Logan Stankoven
TB 4·CAR 5
- 3rd·16:19
Brayden Point hit Jalen Chatfield
·
TB 4·CAR 5
Team stats
TB
Away
Stat
CAR
Home
28
Shots
33
50.0
PCT
50.0
4
PIM
4
36
Faceoffs W
29
20
Blocks
16
20
Giveaways
20
6
Takeaways
7
Betting line
CAR -1.5·O/U 6.5·TB +124/CAR -148
NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 14 skaters with EDGE
Sean WalkerCAR · DSKATE MPH22.998
Taylor HallCAR · LWBURSTS4696
Sebastian AhoCAR · CDIST MI44.795
Nikolaj EhlersCAR · LWBURSTS3995
Seth JarvisCAR · CDIST MI39.992
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.2%
ensemble · CAR favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CAR win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CAR win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CAR win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
+124
Close price
+124
Open no-vig
42.8%
Close no-vig
42.8%
Line barely moved · Graded: miss