Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TB at CAR?

The model favors TB, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1CAR

38-15-4

CAR

37-15-6

NHLThu, Feb 26FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasCAR -148

TB · top performer

Jake Guentzel

C · #59

3Points

—

SOG

CAR · top performer

Seth Jarvis

C · #24

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. BjorkstrandRW · #22	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	13:01
Z. GirgensonsC · #28	0	0	-1	0	2	1	0	14:53
G. GoncalvesC · #93	0	0	0	2	1	0	2	14:55
Y. GourdeC · #37	0	0	-2	3	4	0	0	16:04
J. GuentzelC · #59	0	3	1	4	1	1	0	22:03
B. HagelLW · #38	1	0	0	2	0	1	0	20:42
P. HolmbergRW · #29	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	14:01
D. JamesC · #17	1	0	0	4	0	0	0	16:55
N. KucherovRW · #86	1	0	0	2	0	1	2	25:07
B. PointC · #21	1	1	0	2	1	0	0	22:06
S. SabourinRW · #46	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	5:00

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. CarlileD · #67	0	0	-1	0	2	1	0	11:04
E. CernakD · #81	0	0	2	2	0	1	0	15:26
C. D'AstousD · #51	0	0	-3	0	0	2	0	13:19
V. HedmanD · #77	0	0	-1	0	0	3	0	14:21
R. McDonaghD · #27	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	15:43
J.J. MoserD · #90	0	1	0	2	1	0	0	19:42
D. RaddyshD · #43	0	1	-1	4	0	5	0	26:01

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. JohanssonG · #31	33	5	28	.848	57:03

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AhoC · #20	1	0	0	3	0	0	2	19:43
J. BlakeRW · #53	0	1	1	1	1	0	2	17:48
W. CarrierLW · #28	0	0	-1	2	0	1	0	9:50
N. EhlersLW · #27	1	0	-1	3	0	0	0	14:58
T. HallLW · #71	1	1	2	2	1	0	0	16:01
M. JankowskiLW · #77	0	1	0	1	0	1	0	9:45
S. JarvisC · #24	1	1	1	3	0	0	0	18:21
J. MartinookLW · #48	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	14:31
E. RobinsonLW · #50	0	0	-1	2	1	0	0	9:20
J. StaalC · #11	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	15:19
L. StankovenC · #22	1	1	1	2	2	0	0	16:02
A. SvechnikovRW · #37	0	2	1	3	1	2	0	18:36

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChatfieldD · #5	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	20:17
S. GostisbehereD · #4	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	18:45
K. MillerD · #19	0	1	0	1	5	3	0	20:42
A. NikishinD · #21	0	0	0	4	1	4	0	16:13
J. SlavinD · #74	0	0	1	2	1	2	0	23:31
S. WalkerD · #26	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	18:12

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BussiG · #32	28	4	24	.857	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

Away

Stat

CAR

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

50.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Dec 21

CAR4@

TB6

Feb 27

TB4@

CAR5today

Mar 14

CAR4@

TB2

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CAR -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TB+12445%

CAR-14860%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗

Line movement · 30 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CAR beat TB 5-4. S. Jarvis led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
TB	2	2	0	4
CAR	3	1	1	5

Period scoring

TB won 1 · CAR won 2

CAR

Play-by-play · 336 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
TB 4·CAR 5
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
TB 4·CAR 5
3rd·19:45
Nikolaj Ehlers shot blocked by Victor Hedman
·
TB 4·CAR 5
3rd·19:44
Giveaway by Victor Hedman
TB 4·CAR 5
3rd·19:33
Sean Walker shot blocked by Darren Raddysh
·
TB 4·CAR 5
3rd·19:17
Sebastian Aho shot blocked by Darren Raddysh
·
TB 4·CAR 5
3rd·19:15
Jordan Martinook shot blocked by Oliver Bjorkstrand
·
TB 4·CAR 5
3rd·19:13
Andrei Svechnikov shot blocked by Oliver Bjorkstrand
·
TB 4·CAR 5
3rd·19:08
Giveaway by Nikita Kucherov
TB 4·CAR 5
3rd·19:00
Andrei Svechnikov Snap Shot Wide Right
TB 4·CAR 5
3rd·18:57
Giveaway by Nikita Kucherov
TB 4·CAR 5
3rd·18:51
Takeaway by Brandon Hagel
TB 4·CAR 5
3rd·18:43
Jaccob Slavin hit Nikita Kucherov
·
TB 4·CAR 5
3rd·18:39
Dominic James Tip-In saved by Brandon Bussi
·
TB 4·CAR 5
3rd·18:36
Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by Jaccob Slavin
·
TB 4·CAR 5
3rd·18:30
Jake Guentzel shot blocked by Dominic James
·
TB 4·CAR 5
3rd·18:07
Dominic James faceoff won against Sebastian Aho
·
TB 4·CAR 5
3rd·18:07
On-Ice Official
TB 4·CAR 5
3rd·18:00
Sebastian Aho faceoff won against Brayden Point
·
TB 4·CAR 5
3rd·18:00
Puck in Crowd
TB 4·CAR 5
3rd·17:30
Jordan Staal shot blocked by Oliver Bjorkstrand
·
TB 4·CAR 5
3rd·17:16
Brayden Point faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
TB 4·CAR 5
3rd·17:16
Goalie Stopped
TB 4·CAR 5
3rd·17:14
Darren Raddysh Slap Shot saved by Brandon Bussi
·
TB 4·CAR 5
3rd·17:10
Brayden Point Backhand saved by Brandon Bussi
·
TB 4·CAR 5
3rd·17:08
Brandon Hagel shot blocked by K'Andre Miller
·
TB 4·CAR 5
3rd·17:03
Brayden Point faceoff won against Logan Stankoven
·
TB 4·CAR 5
3rd·17:03
Icing
TB 4·CAR 5
3rd·16:41
Takeaway by Logan Stankoven
TB 4·CAR 5
3rd·16:19
Brayden Point hit Jalen Chatfield
·
TB 4·CAR 5

Betting line

CAR -1.5·O/U 6.5·TB +124/CAR -148

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

arolina Hurricanes held off Tampa Bay Lightning, 5–4.

TB +1.5 cashed (CAR won by 1). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.1%

ensemble · CAR favored

Elo Static
52.1%
P(CAR win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
52.1%
P(CAR win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
52.1%
P(CAR win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+124

Close price

+124

Open no-vig

42.8%

Close no-vig

42.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TB at CAR?: The model favors TB, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Tampa Bay LightningCarolina Hurricanes

Elsewhere in the NHL