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FINAL+1CAR
TB

TB

38-15-4

45
CAR

CAR

37-15-6

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Feb 26FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasCAR -148

Recap · NHL

arolina Hurricanes held off Tampa Bay Lightning, 5–4.

TB +1.5 cashed (CAR won by 1). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TB · top performer

TB
Jake Guentzel

Jake Guentzel

C · #59

3Points

0

G

3

A

—

SOG

CAR · top performer

CAR
Taylor Hall

Taylor Hall

LW · #71

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Tampa Bay Lightning at Carolina Hurricanes · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
4
5
TB38-15-4CAR37-15-6
TB

TB

38-15-4

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
CAR

CAR

37-15-6

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

PIM

4

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Dec 21CARCAR4@TBTB6
Feb 27TBTB4@CARCAR5today
Mar 14CARCAR4@TBTB2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CAR -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TBTB+12445%
CARCAR-14860%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CAR beat TB 5-4.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
TB2204
CAR3115

Period scoring

TB won 1 · CAR won 2

2
3

1

2
1

2

0
1

3

TB
CAR

Play-by-play · 336 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    TB 4·CAR 5

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    TB 4·CAR 5

  3. 3rd·19:45

    Nikolaj Ehlers shot blocked by Victor Hedman

    ·

    TB 4·CAR 5

  4. 3rd·19:44

    Giveaway by Victor Hedman

    TB 4·CAR 5

  5. 3rd·19:33

    Sean Walker shot blocked by Darren Raddysh

    ·

    TB 4·CAR 5

  6. 3rd·19:17

    Sebastian Aho shot blocked by Darren Raddysh

    ·

    TB 4·CAR 5

  7. 3rd·19:15

    Jordan Martinook shot blocked by Oliver Bjorkstrand

    ·

    TB 4·CAR 5

  8. 3rd·19:13

    Andrei Svechnikov shot blocked by Oliver Bjorkstrand

    ·

    TB 4·CAR 5

  9. 3rd·19:08

    Giveaway by Nikita Kucherov

    TB 4·CAR 5

  10. 3rd·19:00

    Andrei Svechnikov Snap Shot Wide Right

    TB 4·CAR 5

  11. 3rd·18:57

    Giveaway by Nikita Kucherov

    TB 4·CAR 5

  12. 3rd·18:51

    Takeaway by Brandon Hagel

    TB 4·CAR 5

  13. 3rd·18:43

    Jaccob Slavin hit Nikita Kucherov

    ·

    TB 4·CAR 5

  14. 3rd·18:39

    Dominic James Tip-In saved by Brandon Bussi

    ·

    TB 4·CAR 5

  15. 3rd·18:36

    Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by Jaccob Slavin

    ·

    TB 4·CAR 5

  16. 3rd·18:30

    Jake Guentzel shot blocked by Dominic James

    ·

    TB 4·CAR 5

  17. 3rd·18:07

    Dominic James faceoff won against Sebastian Aho

    ·

    TB 4·CAR 5

  18. 3rd·18:07

    On-Ice Official

    TB 4·CAR 5

  19. 3rd·18:00

    Sebastian Aho faceoff won against Brayden Point

    ·

    TB 4·CAR 5

  20. 3rd·18:00

    Puck in Crowd

    TB 4·CAR 5

  21. 3rd·17:30

    Jordan Staal shot blocked by Oliver Bjorkstrand

    ·

    TB 4·CAR 5

  22. 3rd·17:16

    Brayden Point faceoff won against Jordan Staal

    ·

    TB 4·CAR 5

  23. 3rd·17:16

    Goalie Stopped

    TB 4·CAR 5

  24. 3rd·17:14

    Darren Raddysh Slap Shot saved by Brandon Bussi

    ·

    TB 4·CAR 5

  25. 3rd·17:10

    Brayden Point Backhand saved by Brandon Bussi

    ·

    TB 4·CAR 5

  26. 3rd·17:08

    Brandon Hagel shot blocked by K'Andre Miller

    ·

    TB 4·CAR 5

  27. 3rd·17:03

    Brayden Point faceoff won against Logan Stankoven

    ·

    TB 4·CAR 5

  28. 3rd·17:03

    Icing

    TB 4·CAR 5

  29. 3rd·16:41

    Takeaway by Logan Stankoven

    TB 4·CAR 5

  30. 3rd·16:19

    Brayden Point hit Jalen Chatfield

    ·

    TB 4·CAR 5

Team stats

TB

Away

Stat

CAR

Home

28

Shots

33

50.0

PCT

50.0

4

PIM

4

36

Faceoffs W

29

20

Blocks

16

20

Giveaways

20

6

Takeaways

7

Betting line

CAR -1.5·O/U 6.5·TB +124/CAR -148

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 skaters with EDGE
  • Sean WalkerCAR · D
    SKATE MPH22.998
  • Taylor HallCAR · LW
    BURSTS4696
  • Sebastian AhoCAR · C
    DIST MI44.795
  • Nikolaj EhlersCAR · LW
    BURSTS3995
  • Seth JarvisCAR · C
    DIST MI39.992

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · CAR favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CAR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CAR win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CAR win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+124

Close price

+124

Open no-vig

42.8%

Close no-vig

42.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR