Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DET at OTT?

The model favors DET, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1DET

DET

34-19-6

OTT

28-22-8

NHLThu, Feb 26FinalSeriesDET leads series 3-0VegasOTT -155

DET · top performer

Dylan Larkin

C · #71

2Points

—

SOG

OTT · top performer

Brady Tkachuk

LW · #7

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AppletonC · #22	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	13:07
J.T. CompherLW · #37	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:35
A. CoppC · #18	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	18:09
A. DeBrincatRW · #93	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	19:15
E. FinnieC · #58	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	8:37
P. KaneRW · #88	0	0	0	4	0	1	2	18:43
M. KasperC · #92	0	0	0	2	4	1	0	19:48
D. LarkinC · #71	2	0	1	3	1	0	0	23:11
M. RasmussenC · #27	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	10:48
L. RaymondLW · #23	0	2	1	4	0	0	0	20:42
E. SoderblomLW · #85	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	7:29
J. van RiemsdykLW · #21	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7:43

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Bernard-DockerD · #25	0	0	0	1	0	3	2	16:59
B. ChiarotD · #8	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	24:33
S. EdvinssonD · #77	0	0	0	2	1	5	7	23:46
A. JohanssonD · #20	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	17:43
A. Sandin-PellikkaD · #44	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:38
M. SeiderD · #53	0	1	1	1	2	4	0	25:48

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. GibsonG · #36	27	1	26	.963	61:47

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AmadioRW · #22	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	19:45
D. BathersonRW · #19	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	17:10
N. CousinsC · #21	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	17:42
D. CozensC · #24	0	0	0	2	7	0	7	17:00
L. EllerC · #89	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	8:19
C. GirouxRW · #28	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:55
R. GreigC · #71	0	0	-1	1	2	3	4	16:40
S. HallidayC · #83	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6:38
S. PintoC · #12	0	0	-1	3	3	3	0	20:51
T. StutzleC · #18	0	1	0	0	1	1	0	17:58
B. TkachukLW · #7	1	0	0	3	3	1	10	15:52
F. ZetterlundLW · #20	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	9:21

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. ChabotD · #72	0	0	-1	1	0	2	0	21:25
N. JensenD · #3	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	19:35
T. KlevenD · #43	0	0	0	1	5	2	2	13:58
J. SandersonD · #85	0	1	0	3	1	2	0	26:39
J. SpenceD · #10	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	15:23
A. ZubD · #2	0	0	0	2	0	3	0	23:05

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. UllmarkG · #35	20	2	18	.900	61:50

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

OTT

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

50.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

DET leads series 3-0

Jan 6

DET5@

OTT3

Jan 18

OTT3@

DET4

Feb 27

DET2@

OTT1today

Mar 24

OTT3@

DET2

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OTT -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

DET+13043%

OTT-15561%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗

Line movement · 30 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DET beat OTT 2-1. D. Larkin led the way — 2 G · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
DET	0	1	0	1	2
OTT	1	0	0	0	1

Period scoring

DET won 2 · OTT won 1

DET

OTT

Play-by-play · 348 plays

period

event

player

OT·1:50
Game End
DET 2·OTT 1
OT·1:50
End of OT
DET 2·OTT 1
OT·1:50
Dylan Larkin Goal (28) Backhand, assists: Lucas Raymond (43)
·
DET 2·OTT 1
OT·1:39
Shane Pinto faceoff won against Dylan Larkin
·
DET 1·OTT 1
OT·1:39
Puck in Netting
DET 1·OTT 1
OT·1:38
Brady Tkachuk shot blocked by Simon Edvinsson
·
DET 1·OTT 1
OT·1:06
Brady Tkachuk faceoff won against Andrew Copp
·
DET 1·OTT 1
OT·1:06
Puck in Netting
DET 1·OTT 1
OT·1:04
Dylan Cozens shot blocked by Ben Chiarot
·
DET 1·OTT 1
OT·0:37
Dylan Cozens faceoff won against Dylan Larkin
·
DET 1·OTT 1
OT·0:37
Off-side
DET 1·OTT 1
OT·0:23
Giveaway by Lucas Raymond
DET 1·OTT 1
OT·0:00
Dylan Larkin faceoff won against Claude Giroux
·
DET 1·OTT 1
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
DET 1·OTT 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
DET 1·OTT 1
3rd·19:50
Shane Pinto Snap Shot saved by John Gibson
·
DET 1·OTT 1
3rd·19:40
Michael Amadio hit Simon Edvinsson
·
DET 1·OTT 1
3rd·19:30
Simon Edvinsson shot blocked by Artem Zub
·
DET 1·OTT 1
3rd·19:15
Jake Sanderson shot blocked by Simon Edvinsson
·
DET 1·OTT 1
3rd·18:49
Giveaway by Ridly Greig
DET 1·OTT 1
3rd·18:43
Alex DeBrincat Backhand Wide Right
·
DET 1·OTT 1
3rd·18:41
Ben Chiarot shot blocked by Ridly Greig
·
DET 1·OTT 1
3rd·18:28
Dylan Cozens hit Moritz Seider
·
DET 1·OTT 1
3rd·18:02
Ridly Greig Backhand High and Wide Right
·
DET 1·OTT 1
3rd·17:32
Marco Kasper Tip-In saved by Linus Ullmark
·
DET 1·OTT 1
3rd·17:12
Marco Kasper hit Jake Sanderson
·
DET 1·OTT 1
3rd·17:05
Marco Kasper faceoff won against Shane Pinto
·
DET 1·OTT 1
3rd·17:05
Puck in Benches
DET 1·OTT 1
3rd·16:49
Shane Pinto faceoff won against Dylan Larkin
·
DET 1·OTT 1
3rd·16:49
Puck in Crowd
DET 1·OTT 1

Betting line

OTT -1.5·O/U 5.5·DET +130/OTT -155

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

etroit Red Wings went into Ottawa Senators and beat them, 2–1 in overtime.

DET +1.5 cashed (OTT lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.2%

ensemble · OTT favored

Elo Static
55.2%
P(OTT win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
55.2%
P(OTT win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
55.2%
P(OTT win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+130

Close price

+130

Open no-vig

41.7%

Close no-vig

41.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DET at OTT?: The model favors DET, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Detroit Red WingsOttawa Senators

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