NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1DET

DET

34-19-6

OTT

28-22-8

NHLThu, Feb 26FinalSeriesDET leads series 3-0VegasOTT -155

Recap · NHL

etroit Red Wings went into Ottawa Senators and beat them, 2–1 in overtime.

DET +1.5 cashed (OTT lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DET · top performer

Dylan Larkin

C · #71

2Points

—

SOG

OTT · top performer

Tim Stutzle

C · #18

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	G	A	+/-	S	HT	BS	PIM	TOI
M. AppletonC · #22	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	13:07
J.T. CompherLW · #37	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:35
A. CoppC · #18	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	18:09
A. DeBrincatRW · #93	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	19:15
E. FinnieC · #58	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	8:37
P. KaneRW · #88	0	0	0	4	0	1	2	18:43
M. KasperC · #92	0	0	0	2	4	1	0	19:48
D. LarkinC · #71	2	0	1	3	1	0	0	23:11
M. RasmussenC · #27	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	10:48
L. RaymondLW · #23	0	2	1	4	0	0	0	20:42
E. SoderblomLW · #85	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	7:29
J. van RiemsdykLW · #21	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7:43

Defensemen

defenses box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	G	A	+/-	S	HT	BS	PIM	TOI
J. Bernard-DockerD · #25	0	0	0	1	0	3	2	16:59
B. ChiarotD · #8	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	24:33
S. EdvinssonD · #77	0	0	0	2	1	5	7	23:46
A. JohanssonD · #20	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	17:43
A. Sandin-PellikkaD · #44	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:38
M. SeiderD · #53	0	1	1	1	2	4	0	25:48

Goalies

goalies box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	SA	GA	SV	SV%	TOI
J. GibsonG · #36	27	1	26	.963	61:47

Forwards

forwards box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	G	A	+/-	S	HT	BS	PIM	TOI
M. AmadioRW · #22	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	19:45
D. BathersonRW · #19	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	17:10
N. CousinsC · #21	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	17:42
D. CozensC · #24	0	0	0	2	7	0	7	17:00
L. EllerC · #89	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	8:19
C. GirouxRW · #28	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:55
R. GreigC · #71	0	0	-1	1	2	3	4	16:40
S. HallidayC · #83	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6:38
S. PintoC · #12	0	0	-1	3	3	3	0	20:51
T. StutzleC · #18	0	1	0	0	1	1	0	17:58
B. TkachukLW · #7	1	0	0	3	3	1	10	15:52
F. ZetterlundLW · #20	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	9:21

Defensemen

defenses box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	G	A	+/-	S	HT	BS	PIM	TOI
T. ChabotD · #72	0	0	-1	1	0	2	0	21:25
N. JensenD · #3	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	19:35
T. KlevenD · #43	0	0	0	1	5	2	2	13:58
J. SandersonD · #85	0	1	0	3	1	2	0	26:39
J. SpenceD · #10	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	15:23
A. ZubD · #2	0	0	0	2	0	3	0	23:05

Goalies

goalies box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	SA	GA	SV	SV%	TOI
L. UllmarkG · #35	20	2	18	.900	61:50

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

DET leads series 3-0

Jan 6

DET5@

OTT3

Jan 18

OTT3@

DET4

Feb 27

DET2@

OTT1today

Mar 24

OTT3@

DET2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OTT -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

DET+13043%

OTT-15561%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗

Line movement · 17 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DET beat OTT 2-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
DET	0	1	0	1	2
OTT	1	0	0	0	1

Period scoring

DET won 2 · OTT won 1

DET

OTT

Play-by-play · 348 plays

period

event

player

OT·1:50
Game End
DET 2·OTT 1
OT·1:50
End of OT
DET 2·OTT 1
OT·1:50
Dylan Larkin Goal (28) Backhand, assists: Lucas Raymond (43)
·
DET 2·OTT 1
OT·1:39
Shane Pinto faceoff won against Dylan Larkin
·
DET 1·OTT 1
OT·1:39
Puck in Netting
DET 1·OTT 1
OT·1:38
Brady Tkachuk shot blocked by Simon Edvinsson
·
DET 1·OTT 1
OT·1:06
Brady Tkachuk faceoff won against Andrew Copp
·
DET 1·OTT 1
OT·1:06
Puck in Netting
DET 1·OTT 1
OT·1:04
Dylan Cozens shot blocked by Ben Chiarot
·
DET 1·OTT 1
OT·0:37
Dylan Cozens faceoff won against Dylan Larkin
·
DET 1·OTT 1
OT·0:37
Off-side
DET 1·OTT 1
OT·0:23
Giveaway by Lucas Raymond
DET 1·OTT 1
OT·0:00
Dylan Larkin faceoff won against Claude Giroux
·
DET 1·OTT 1
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
DET 1·OTT 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
DET 1·OTT 1
3rd·19:50
Shane Pinto Snap Shot saved by John Gibson
·
DET 1·OTT 1
3rd·19:40
Michael Amadio hit Simon Edvinsson
·
DET 1·OTT 1
3rd·19:30
Simon Edvinsson shot blocked by Artem Zub
·
DET 1·OTT 1
3rd·19:15
Jake Sanderson shot blocked by Simon Edvinsson
·
DET 1·OTT 1
3rd·18:49
Giveaway by Ridly Greig
DET 1·OTT 1
3rd·18:43
Alex DeBrincat Backhand Wide Right
·
DET 1·OTT 1
3rd·18:41
Ben Chiarot shot blocked by Ridly Greig
·
DET 1·OTT 1
3rd·18:28
Dylan Cozens hit Moritz Seider
·
DET 1·OTT 1
3rd·18:02
Ridly Greig Backhand High and Wide Right
·
DET 1·OTT 1
3rd·17:32
Marco Kasper Tip-In saved by Linus Ullmark
·
DET 1·OTT 1
3rd·17:12
Marco Kasper hit Jake Sanderson
·
DET 1·OTT 1
3rd·17:05
Marco Kasper faceoff won against Shane Pinto
·
DET 1·OTT 1
3rd·17:05
Puck in Benches
DET 1·OTT 1
3rd·16:49
Shane Pinto faceoff won against Dylan Larkin
·
DET 1·OTT 1
3rd·16:49
Puck in Crowd
DET 1·OTT 1

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

OTT

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

50.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

OTT -1.5·O/U 5.5·DET +130/OTT -155

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE

Moritz SeiderDET · D
DIST MI299.899
Alex DeBrincatDET · RW
DIST MI252.196
Emmitt FinnieDET · C
BURSTS19394
Dylan LarkinDET · C
DIST MI243.094
J.T. CompherDET · LW
BURSTS15888

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.9%

ensemble · OTT favored

Elo Static
55.2%
P(OTT win)
67%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
55.2%
P(OTT win)
16%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
55.2%
P(OTT win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+130

Close price

+130

Open no-vig

41.7%

Close no-vig

41.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit