Free during beta —to track favorites + alerts
FINAL+3MIN
MIN

MIN

35-14-10

52
COL

COL

38-10-9

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Feb 26FinalSeriesMIN leads series 2-1VegasCOL -155

Recap · NHL

innesota Wild went into Colorado Avalanche and beat them, 5–2.

MIN +1.5 cashed (COL lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIN · top performer

MIN
Matt Boldy

Matt Boldy

LW · #12

4Points

2

G

2

A

—

SOG

COL · top performer

COL
Nathan MacKinnon

Nathan MacKinnon

C · #29

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

NHL · Minnesota Wild at Colorado Avalanche · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
5
2
MIN35-14-10COL38-10-9
MIN

MIN

35-14-10

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
COL

COL

38-10-9

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

PIM

12

Playoff series

May 4MINMIN6@COLCOL9
May 6MINMIN2@COLCOL5
May 10COLCOL1@MINMIN5
May 12COLCOL5@MINMIN2
May 14MINMIN3@COLCOL4

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MINMIN+13043%
COLCOL-15561%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 13 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIN beat COL 5-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
MIN0235
COL0112

Period scoring

MIN won 2 · COL won 0

0
0

1

2
1

2

3
1

3

MIN
COL

Play-by-play · 374 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    MIN 5·COL 2

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    MIN 5·COL 2

  3. 3rd·19:49

    Ross Colton Wrist Shot saved by Jesper Wallstedt

    ·

    MIN 5·COL 2

  4. 3rd·19:28

    Jack Drury faceoff won against Vincent Hinostroza

    ·

    MIN 5·COL 2

  5. 3rd·19:28

    Matt Boldy Goal (34) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Faber (25), Jake Middleton (13)

    · ·

    MIN 5·COL 2

  6. 3rd·19:14

    Gabriel Landeskog hit Brock Faber

    ·

    MIN 4·COL 2

  7. 3rd·19:03

    Nathan MacKinnon faceoff won against Joel Eriksson Ek

    ·

    MIN 4·COL 2

  8. 3rd·19:03

    Martin Necas Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (55), Gabriel Landeskog (17)

    · ·

    MIN 4·COL 2

  9. 3rd·18:56

    Brock Nelson faceoff won against Joel Eriksson Ek

    ·

    MIN 4·COL 1

  10. 3rd·18:56

    Icing

    MIN 4·COL 1

  11. 3rd·18:48

    Ross Colton hit Daemon Hunt

    ·

    MIN 4·COL 1

  12. 3rd·18:36

    Takeaway by Jared Spurgeon

    MIN 4·COL 1

  13. 3rd·18:26

    Joel Eriksson Ek shot blocked by Valeri Nichushkin

    ·

    MIN 4·COL 1

  14. 3rd·17:52

    Nico Sturm Wrist Shot Wide Right

    MIN 4·COL 1

  15. 3rd·17:50

    Giveaway by Martin Necas

    MIN 4·COL 1

  16. 3rd·17:39

    Gabriel Landeskog shot blocked by Artturi Lehkonen

    ·

    MIN 4·COL 1

  17. 3rd·17:37

    Giveaway by Nico Sturm

    MIN 4·COL 1

  18. 3rd·17:37

    Giveaway by Cale Makar

    MIN 4·COL 1

  19. 3rd·17:26

    Giveaway by Nathan MacKinnon

    MIN 4·COL 1

  20. 3rd·17:22

    Martin Necas Slap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    MIN 4·COL 1

  21. 3rd·17:15

    Cale Makar shot blocked by Marcus Foligno

    ·

    MIN 4·COL 1

  22. 3rd·16:56

    Brock Nelson Snap Shot saved by Filip Gustavsson

    ·

    MIN 4·COL 1

  23. 3rd·16:51

    Martin Necas Wrist Shot saved by Filip Gustavsson

    ·

    MIN 4·COL 1

  24. 3rd·16:38

    Nathan MacKinnon faceoff won against Marcus Foligno

    ·

    MIN 4·COL 1

  25. 3rd·16:38

    Matt Boldy Goal (33) Wrist Shot, assists: none

    MIN 4·COL 1

  26. 3rd·16:35

    Giveaway by Nathan MacKinnon

    MIN 3·COL 1

  27. 3rd·16:27

    Takeaway by Matt Boldy

    MIN 3·COL 1

  28. 3rd·16:12

    Joel Eriksson Ek faceoff won against Brock Nelson

    ·

    MIN 3·COL 1

  29. 3rd·16:12

    TV Timeout

    MIN 3·COL 1

  30. 3rd·16:12

    Danila Yurov Tripping against Brett Kulak

    ·

    MIN 3·COL 1

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

COL

Home

36

Shots

47

33.3

PCT

0.0

6

PIM

12

23

Faceoffs W

43

13

Blocks

12

16

Giveaways

19

6

Takeaways

5

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 6.5·MIN +130/COL -155

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Brock FaberMIN · D
    BURSTS2799+
  • Ross ColtonCOL · C
    SKATE MPH23.799+
  • Nathan MacKinnonCOL · C
    BURSTS8799+
  • Cale MakarCOL · D
    SKATE MPH23.999+
  • Gabriel LandeskogCOL · LW
    SHOT MPH92.897

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · COL favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(COL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(COL win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(COL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-155

Close price

-155

Open no-vig

58.3%

Close no-vig

58.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR