Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at COL?

The model favors COL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3MIN

MIN

35-14-10

COL

38-10-9

NHLThu, Feb 26FinalSeriesMIN leads series 2-1VegasCOL -155

MIN · top performer

Matt Boldy

LW · #12

4Points

—

SOG

COL · top performer

Martin Necas

C · #88

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BoldyLW · #12	2	2	2	10	0	0	0	22:42
J. Eriksson EkC · #14	2	0	0	5	0	0	0	21:12
M. FolignoLW · #17	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	9:55
R. HartmanRW · #38	0	1	1	1	1	2	0	15:02
V. HinostrozaC · #18	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	6:20
M. JohanssonLW · #90	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	15:53
K. KaprizovLW · #97	0	2	2	3	2	0	0	21:04
N. SturmC · #78	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	9:04
V. TarasenkoRW · #91	0	0	-2	1	0	0	0	13:15
Y. TreninC · #13	0	0	-1	1	7	0	0	13:45
D. YurovRW · #22	0	0	-1	0	0	0	2	13:51
M. ZuccarelloRW · #36	1	0	1	2	2	0	0	18:32

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BogosianD · #24	0	0	-2	0	4	2	0	15:14
B. FaberD · #7	0	1	3	4	0	1	0	25:44
Q. HughesD · #43	0	1	1	4	0	1	0	26:12
D. HuntD · #48	0	0	-2	0	2	1	2	9:07
J. MiddletonD · #5	0	1	2	1	1	1	0	18:58
J. SpurgeonD · #46	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	18:17

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WallstedtG · #30	2	1	1	.500	1:04
F. GustavssonG · #32	45	1	44	.978	58:49

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. BrindleyC · #54	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	6:52
R. ColtonC · #20	0	0	0	3	4	0	0	10:50
J. DruryC · #18	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	13:08
P. KellyC · #17	0	0	-1	0	4	2	0	13:24
J. KivirantaLW · #94	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	5:12
G. LandeskogLW · #92	0	1	0	2	4	0	4	21:44
A. LehkonenLW · #62	0	0	-2	2	0	0	0	15:06
N. MacKinnonC · #29	0	2	0	8	0	0	0	23:21
M. NecasC · #88	2	0	0	7	3	0	0	24:21
B. NelsonC · #11	0	0	-1	4	0	0	0	21:20
V. NichushkinRW · #13	0	0	-1	3	2	1	2	15:31
V. OlofssonLW · #95	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8:05

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BurnsD · #84	0	0	0	4	0	5	2	14:39
B. KulakD · #27	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	16:33
C. MakarD · #8	0	0	0	2	1	0	2	26:45
S. MalinskiD · #70	0	0	-1	3	0	0	0	14:31
J. MansonD · #42	0	1	1	2	2	2	2	15:55
D. ToewsD · #7	0	0	-1	3	0	0	0	25:23

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BlackwoodG · #39	34	3	31	.912	56:59

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

COL

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Playoff series

May 4

MIN6@

COL9

May 6

MIN2@

COL5

May 10

COL1@

MIN5

May 12

COL5@

MIN2

May 14

MIN3@

COL4

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MIN+13043%

COL-15561%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 27 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIN beat COL 5-2. M. Boldy led the way — 2 G · 2 A · 10 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
MIN	0	2	3	5
COL	0	1	1	2

Period scoring

MIN won 2 · COL won 0

MIN

COL

Play-by-play · 374 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
MIN 5·COL 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
MIN 5·COL 2
3rd·19:49
Ross Colton Wrist Shot saved by Jesper Wallstedt
·
MIN 5·COL 2
3rd·19:28
Jack Drury faceoff won against Vincent Hinostroza
·
MIN 5·COL 2
3rd·19:28
Matt Boldy Goal (34) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Faber (25), Jake Middleton (13)
· ·
MIN 5·COL 2
3rd·19:14
Gabriel Landeskog hit Brock Faber
·
MIN 4·COL 2
3rd·19:03
Nathan MacKinnon faceoff won against Joel Eriksson Ek
·
MIN 4·COL 2
3rd·19:03
Martin Necas Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (55), Gabriel Landeskog (17)
· ·
MIN 4·COL 2
3rd·18:56
Brock Nelson faceoff won against Joel Eriksson Ek
·
MIN 4·COL 1
3rd·18:56
Icing
MIN 4·COL 1
3rd·18:48
Ross Colton hit Daemon Hunt
·
MIN 4·COL 1
3rd·18:36
Takeaway by Jared Spurgeon
MIN 4·COL 1
3rd·18:26
Joel Eriksson Ek shot blocked by Valeri Nichushkin
·
MIN 4·COL 1
3rd·17:52
Nico Sturm Wrist Shot Wide Right
MIN 4·COL 1
3rd·17:50
Giveaway by Martin Necas
MIN 4·COL 1
3rd·17:39
Gabriel Landeskog shot blocked by Artturi Lehkonen
·
MIN 4·COL 1
3rd·17:37
Giveaway by Nico Sturm
MIN 4·COL 1
3rd·17:37
Giveaway by Cale Makar
MIN 4·COL 1
3rd·17:26
Giveaway by Nathan MacKinnon
MIN 4·COL 1
3rd·17:22
Martin Necas Slap Shot Wide Left
·
MIN 4·COL 1
3rd·17:15
Cale Makar shot blocked by Marcus Foligno
·
MIN 4·COL 1
3rd·16:56
Brock Nelson Snap Shot saved by Filip Gustavsson
·
MIN 4·COL 1
3rd·16:51
Martin Necas Wrist Shot saved by Filip Gustavsson
·
MIN 4·COL 1
3rd·16:38
Nathan MacKinnon faceoff won against Marcus Foligno
·
MIN 4·COL 1
3rd·16:38
Matt Boldy Goal (33) Wrist Shot, assists: none
MIN 4·COL 1
3rd·16:35
Giveaway by Nathan MacKinnon
MIN 3·COL 1
3rd·16:27
Takeaway by Matt Boldy
MIN 3·COL 1
3rd·16:12
Joel Eriksson Ek faceoff won against Brock Nelson
·
MIN 3·COL 1
3rd·16:12
TV Timeout
MIN 3·COL 1
3rd·16:12
Danila Yurov Tripping against Brett Kulak
·
MIN 3·COL 1

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 6.5·MIN +130/COL -155

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

innesota Wild went into Colorado Avalanche and beat them, 5–2.

MIN +1.5 cashed (COL lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.8%

ensemble · COL favored

Elo Static
60.8%
P(COL win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
60.8%
P(COL win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
60.8%
P(COL win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-155

Close price

-155

Open no-vig

58.3%

Close no-vig

58.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at COL?: The model favors COL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Minnesota WildColorado Avalanche

Elsewhere in the NHL