NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3PIT

28-29-2

PIT

30-15-12

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Feb 26FinalSeriesPIT leads series 2-1VegasPIT -162

Recap · NHL

ittsburgh Penguins held off New Jersey Devils, 4–1.

PIT -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NJ · top performer

Paul Cotter

LW · #47

1Points

—

SOG

PIT · top performer

Evgeni Malkin

C · #71

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

NJ28-29-2

PIT30-15-12

NJ28-29-2PIT30-15-12

28-29-2

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

PIT

30-15-12

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

PIT leads series 2-1

Nov 8

PIT1@

NJ2

Jan 9

NJ1@

PIT4

Feb 27

NJ1@

PIT4today

Apr 9

PIT5@

NJ2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PIT -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NJ+13642%

PIT-16262%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PIT beat NJ 4-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
NJ	0	1	0	1
PIT	1	0	3	4

Period scoring

NJ won 1 · PIT won 2

PIT

Play-by-play · 333 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
NJ 1·PIT 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
NJ 1·PIT 4
3rd·19:56
Paul Cotter hit Justin Brazeau
·
NJ 1·PIT 4
3rd·19:43
Paul Cotter hit Thomas Novak
·
NJ 1·PIT 4
3rd·19:22
Arseny Gritsyuk Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
NJ 1·PIT 4
3rd·18:23
Brenden Dillon Wrist Shot saved by Arturs Silovs
·
NJ 1·PIT 4
3rd·18:14
Giveaway by Samuel Girard
NJ 1·PIT 4
3rd·18:01
Nick Bjugstad faceoff won against Noel Acciari
·
NJ 1·PIT 4
3rd·18:01
Blake Lizotte Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: none
NJ 1·PIT 4
3rd·17:55
Giveaway by Dougie Hamilton
NJ 1·PIT 3
3rd·17:49
Cody Glass Wrist Shot saved by Arturs Silovs
·
NJ 1·PIT 3
3rd·17:48
Cody Glass Deflected saved by Arturs Silovs
·
NJ 1·PIT 3
3rd·17:41
Jack Hughes shot blocked by Samuel Girard
·
NJ 1·PIT 3
3rd·17:33
Dougie Hamilton Wrist Shot saved by Arturs Silovs
·
NJ 1·PIT 3
3rd·17:27
Cody Glass faceoff won against Blake Lizotte
·
NJ 1·PIT 3
3rd·17:27
Off-side
NJ 1·PIT 3
3rd·17:21
Noel Acciari shot blocked by Blake Lizotte
·
NJ 1·PIT 3
3rd·17:19
Simon Nemec Snap Shot Wide Left
·
NJ 1·PIT 3
3rd·16:31
Noel Acciari faceoff won against Nico Hischier
·
NJ 1·PIT 3
3rd·16:31
Puck in Netting
NJ 1·PIT 3
3rd·16:29
Timo Meier Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
NJ 1·PIT 3
3rd·16:11
Nico Hischier faceoff won against Noel Acciari
·
NJ 1·PIT 3
3rd·16:11
Connor Clifton Delaying Game - Puck over glass
·
NJ 1·PIT 3
3rd·16:11
Puck in Penalty Benches
NJ 1·PIT 3
3rd·16:08
Nico Hischier faceoff won against Rickard Rakell
·
NJ 1·PIT 3
3rd·16:08
Icing
NJ 1·PIT 3
3rd·15:35
Giveaway by Bryan Rust
NJ 1·PIT 3
3rd·14:44
Jack Hughes shot blocked by Blake Lizotte
·
NJ 1·PIT 3
3rd·14:40
Nico Hischier faceoff won against Blake Lizotte
·
NJ 1·PIT 3
3rd·14:40
Puck in Netting
NJ 1·PIT 3

Team stats

Away

Stat

PIT

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

33.3

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

PIT -1.5·O/U 5.5·NJ +136/PIT -162

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 skaters with EDGE

Egor ChinakhovPIT · RW
SHOT MPH94.799
Erik KarlssonPIT · D
SKATE MPH22.897
Samuel GirardPIT · D
SKATE MPH22.590
Ben KindelPIT · C
SHOT MPH87.584
Blake LizottePIT · C
BURSTS2483

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · PIT favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PIT win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PIT win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PIT win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-162

Close price

-162

Open no-vig

59.3%

Close no-vig

59.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

PIT vs NJ.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

138

projections · 117 high confidence

Shots on goal

Jack HughesNJ
4.3± 1.7high
Timo MeierNJ
3.3± 3.0high
Rickard RakellPIT
3.0± 2.1high

Goals

Jack HughesNJ
0.6± 0.8high
Evgeni MalkinPIT
0.5± 1.0high
Dawson MercerNJ
0.4± 0.7high

Points

Jack HughesNJ
1.6± 1.7high
Evgeni MalkinPIT
1.1± 1.4high
Sidney CrosbyPIT
1.1± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands