Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NJ at PIT?

The model favors PIT, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3PIT

28-29-2

PIT

30-15-12

NHLThu, Feb 26FinalSeriesPIT leads series 2-1VegasPIT -162

NJ · top performer

Paul Cotter

LW · #47

1Points

—

SOG

PIT · top performer

Evgeni Malkin

C · #71

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. BjugstadC · #72	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	11:06
J. BrattLW · #63	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	19:43
C. BrownRW · #16	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	22:02
P. CotterLW · #47	1	0	1	2	2	0	0	10:05
C. GlassC · #12	0	0	-2	3	0	1	0	11:47
A. GritsyukRW · #81	0	0	-2	2	0	1	2	12:58
L. HameenahoRW · #29	0	0	-2	3	0	0	0	12:50
N. HischierC · #13	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	18:00
J. HughesC · #86	0	1	-1	2	0	0	0	25:42
T. MeierRW · #28	0	0	0	4	3	1	0	16:30
D. MercerC · #91	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	15:14
M. TsyplakovRW · #42	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	9:33

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. DillonD · #5	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	17:59
D. HamiltonD · #7	0	1	-1	4	4	1	0	22:10
J. KovacevicD · #8	0	0	-1	0	6	2	2	13:15
S. NemecD · #17	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	20:09
B. PesceD · #22	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	19:53
J. SiegenthalerD · #71	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	17:05

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. MarkstromG · #25	36	3	33	.917	58:34

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. AcciariC · #55	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	16:17
J. BrazeauRW · #16	0	0	0	3	1	2	0	13:00
E. ChinakhovRW · #59	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	12:42
C. DewarC · #19	0	0	0	5	2	1	0	15:49
A. HayesRW · #85	0	0	-1	2	2	1	2	11:47
B. KindelC · #81	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	13:07
B. LizotteC · #46	1	0	1	2	1	1	0	14:31
E. MalkinC · #71	0	2	1	5	0	0	2	17:38
A. ManthaRW · #39	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	13:54
T. NovakC · #18	1	0	0	2	0	1	0	13:39
R. RakellRW · #67	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	16:06
B. RustRW · #17	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	16:47

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CliftonD · #75	1	0	1	2	7	1	2	18:15
S. GirardD · #49	0	0	0	1	0	4	0	17:53
E. KarlssonD · #65	0	0	1	1	0	2	0	21:41
K. LetangD · #58	0	1	-1	2	0	2	2	19:02
R. SheaD · #5	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	20:19
P. WotherspoonD · #28	0	0	2	0	1	1	0	17:49

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. SilovsG · #37	30	1	29	.967	59:44

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

Away

Stat

PIT

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

33.3

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

PIT leads series 2-1

Nov 8

PIT1@

NJ2

Jan 9

NJ1@

PIT4

Feb 27

NJ1@

PIT4today

Apr 9

PIT5@

NJ2

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PIT -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NJ+13642%

PIT-16262%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗

Line movement · 21 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PIT beat NJ 4-1. E. Malkin led the way — 2 A · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
NJ	0	1	0	1
PIT	1	0	3	4

Period scoring

NJ won 1 · PIT won 2

PIT

Play-by-play · 333 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
NJ 1·PIT 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
NJ 1·PIT 4
3rd·19:56
Paul Cotter hit Justin Brazeau
·
NJ 1·PIT 4
3rd·19:43
Paul Cotter hit Thomas Novak
·
NJ 1·PIT 4
3rd·19:22
Arseny Gritsyuk Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
NJ 1·PIT 4
3rd·18:23
Brenden Dillon Wrist Shot saved by Arturs Silovs
·
NJ 1·PIT 4
3rd·18:14
Giveaway by Samuel Girard
NJ 1·PIT 4
3rd·18:01
Nick Bjugstad faceoff won against Noel Acciari
·
NJ 1·PIT 4
3rd·18:01
Blake Lizotte Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: none
NJ 1·PIT 4
3rd·17:55
Giveaway by Dougie Hamilton
NJ 1·PIT 3
3rd·17:49
Cody Glass Wrist Shot saved by Arturs Silovs
·
NJ 1·PIT 3
3rd·17:48
Cody Glass Deflected saved by Arturs Silovs
·
NJ 1·PIT 3
3rd·17:41
Jack Hughes shot blocked by Samuel Girard
·
NJ 1·PIT 3
3rd·17:33
Dougie Hamilton Wrist Shot saved by Arturs Silovs
·
NJ 1·PIT 3
3rd·17:27
Cody Glass faceoff won against Blake Lizotte
·
NJ 1·PIT 3
3rd·17:27
Off-side
NJ 1·PIT 3
3rd·17:21
Noel Acciari shot blocked by Blake Lizotte
·
NJ 1·PIT 3
3rd·17:19
Simon Nemec Snap Shot Wide Left
·
NJ 1·PIT 3
3rd·16:31
Noel Acciari faceoff won against Nico Hischier
·
NJ 1·PIT 3
3rd·16:31
Puck in Netting
NJ 1·PIT 3
3rd·16:29
Timo Meier Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
NJ 1·PIT 3
3rd·16:11
Nico Hischier faceoff won against Noel Acciari
·
NJ 1·PIT 3
3rd·16:11
Connor Clifton Delaying Game - Puck over glass
·
NJ 1·PIT 3
3rd·16:11
Puck in Penalty Benches
NJ 1·PIT 3
3rd·16:08
Nico Hischier faceoff won against Rickard Rakell
·
NJ 1·PIT 3
3rd·16:08
Icing
NJ 1·PIT 3
3rd·15:35
Giveaway by Bryan Rust
NJ 1·PIT 3
3rd·14:44
Jack Hughes shot blocked by Blake Lizotte
·
NJ 1·PIT 3
3rd·14:40
Nico Hischier faceoff won against Blake Lizotte
·
NJ 1·PIT 3
3rd·14:40
Puck in Netting
NJ 1·PIT 3

Betting line

PIT -1.5·O/U 5.5·NJ +136/PIT -162

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ittsburgh Penguins held off New Jersey Devils, 4–1.

PIT -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.7%

ensemble · PIT favored

Elo Static
61.7%
P(PIT win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
61.7%
P(PIT win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
61.7%
P(PIT win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-162

Close price

-162

Open no-vig

59.3%

Close no-vig

59.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NJ at PIT?: The model favors PIT, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

New Jersey DevilsPittsburgh Penguins

Elsewhere in the NHL