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FINAL+1PHI
PHI

PHI

26-21-11

32
NYR

NYR

22-29-7

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Feb 26FinalSeriesNYR lead series 2-1VegasNYR -148

Recap · NHL

hiladelphia Flyers went into New York Rangers and beat them, 3–2 in overtime.

PHI +1.5 cashed (NYR lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PHI · top performer

PHI
Matvei Michkov

Matvei Michkov

RW · #39

2Points

2

G

0

A

—

SOG

NYR · top performer

NYR
Sam Carrick

Sam Carrick

C · #39

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Philadelphia Flyers at New York Rangers · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT
3
2
PHI26-21-11NYR22-29-7
PHI

PHI

26-21-11

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
NYR

NYR

22-29-7

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

PIM

15

Season series

NYR lead series 2-1

Dec 20PHIPHI4@NYRNYR5
Jan 17NYRNYR6@PHIPHI3
Feb 27PHIPHI3@NYRNYR2today
Mar 9NYRNYR6@PHIPHI2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYR -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PHIPHI+12445%
NYRNYR-14860%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYR -1.5↗SpreadBet NYR -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PHI beat NYR 3-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTT
PHI01113
NYR11002

Period scoring

PHI won 2 · NYR won 1

0
1

1

1
1

2

1
0

3

1
0

OT

PHI
NYR

Play-by-play · 287 plays

period
event
player
  1. OT·2:10

    Game End

    PHI 3·NYR 2

  2. OT·2:10

    End of OT

    PHI 3·NYR 2

  3. OT·2:10

    Matvei Michkov Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Couturier (22), Nick Seeler (6)

    · ·

    PHI 3·NYR 2

  4. OT·2:01

    J.T. Miller shot blocked by Nick Seeler

    ·

    PHI 2·NYR 2

  5. OT·1:55

    Vincent Trocheck Backhand saved by Samuel Ersson

    ·

    PHI 2·NYR 2

  6. OT·1:54

    Mika Zibanejad Slap Shot saved by Samuel Ersson

    ·

    PHI 2·NYR 2

  7. OT·1:48

    J.T. Miller Slap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    PHI 2·NYR 2

  8. OT·1:33

    Mika Zibanejad shot blocked by Rasmus Ristolainen

    ·

    PHI 2·NYR 2

  9. OT·0:50

    Mika Zibanejad Slap Shot Above Crossbar

    ·

    PHI 2·NYR 2

  10. OT·0:39

    Sean Couturier Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    PHI 2·NYR 2

  11. OT·0:00

    J.T. Miller faceoff won against Sean Couturier

    ·

    PHI 2·NYR 2

  12. OT·0:00

    Start of Overtime

    PHI 2·NYR 2

  13. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    PHI 2·NYR 2

  14. 3rd·19:51

    J.T. Miller faceoff won against Sean Couturier

    ·

    PHI 2·NYR 2

  15. 3rd·19:51

    Matvei Michkov Interference - Goalkeeper against Igor Shesterkin

    ·

    PHI 2·NYR 2

  16. 3rd·19:48

    Vladislav Gavrikov Snap Shot saved by Samuel Ersson

    ·

    PHI 2·NYR 2

  17. 3rd·18:41

    Vincent Trocheck hit Trevor Zegras

    ·

    PHI 2·NYR 2

  18. 3rd·18:36

    Matthew Robertson shot blocked by Cam York

    ·

    PHI 2·NYR 2

  19. 3rd·18:23

    Cam York hit Will Cuylle

    ·

    PHI 2·NYR 2

  20. 3rd·17:52

    Trevor Zegras shot blocked by Christian Dvorak

    ·

    PHI 2·NYR 2

  21. 3rd·17:48

    Christian Dvorak faceoff won against Vincent Trocheck

    ·

    PHI 2·NYR 2

  22. 3rd·17:48

    Goalie Stopped

    PHI 2·NYR 2

  23. 3rd·17:44

    Nikita Grebenkin Wrist Shot saved by Igor Shesterkin

    ·

    PHI 2·NYR 2

  24. 3rd·17:07

    Matthew Robertson Slap Shot saved by Samuel Ersson

    ·

    PHI 2·NYR 2

  25. 3rd·17:05

    Matthew Robertson shot blocked by Owen Tippett

    ·

    PHI 2·NYR 2

  26. 3rd·17:03

    J.T. Miller faceoff won against Sean Couturier

    ·

    PHI 2·NYR 2

  27. 3rd·17:03

    Goalie Stopped

    PHI 2·NYR 2

  28. 3rd·17:02

    Matthew Robertson Slap Shot saved by Samuel Ersson

    ·

    PHI 2·NYR 2

  29. 3rd·16:55

    Mika Zibanejad faceoff won against Sean Couturier

    ·

    PHI 2·NYR 2

  30. 3rd·16:55

    Puck in Benches

    PHI 2·NYR 2

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

NYR

Home

24

Shots

24

20.0

PCT

0.0

11

PIM

15

18

Faceoffs W

31

11

Blocks

15

15

Giveaways

9

4

Takeaways

4

Betting line

NYR -1.5·O/U 5.5·PHI +124/NYR -148

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 26 skaters with EDGE
  • J.T. MillerNYR · LW
    SHOT MPH102.699+
  • Jamie DrysdalePHI · D
    SKATE MPH23.098
  • Travis SanheimPHI · D
    SKATE MPH22.795
  • Vladislav GavrikovNYR · D
    DIST MI263.494
  • Cam YorkPHI · D
    SKATE MPH22.693

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · NYR favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NYR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NYR win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NYR win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+124

Close price

+124

Open no-vig

42.8%

Close no-vig

42.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR