Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHI at NYR?

The model favors PHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1PHI

PHI

26-21-11

NYR

22-29-7

NHLThu, Feb 26FinalSeriesNYR lead series 2-1VegasNYR -148

PHI · top performer

Matvei Michkov

RW · #39

2Points

—

SOG

NYR · top performer

Sam Carrick

C · #39

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. BarkeyC · #52	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	13:54
B. BrinkRW · #10	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	15:45
N. CatesLW · #27	0	1	-1	5	0	1	0	15:29
S. CouturierC · #14	0	1	1	0	3	0	0	18:45
C. DvorakC · #22	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	21:00
N. GrebenkinRW · #29	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	12:08
C. GrundstromRW · #91	0	0	-1	5	2	0	0	10:23
G. HathawayRW · #19	0	0	-1	1	4	1	7	9:09
T. KonecnyRW · #11	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	20:12
M. MichkovRW · #39	2	0	0	2	0	0	2	14:02
O. TippettRW · #74	0	1	0	1	2	1	0	15:24
T. ZegrasC · #46	1	0	1	1	2	0	2	20:17

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. AndraeD · #36	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	11:50
J. DrysdaleD · #9	0	0	-1	3	0	0	0	21:33
R. RistolainenD · #55	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	21:46
T. SanheimD · #6	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	23:39
N. SeelerD · #24	0	1	1	1	1	2	0	15:35
C. YorkD · #8	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	22:19

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. ErssonG · #33	24	2	22	.917	61:40

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BrissonC · #91	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:21
S. CarrickC · #39	1	0	1	1	1	1	5	7:57
W. CuylleLW · #50	0	1	1	1	2	2	0	18:05
N. LabaC · #42	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	16:09
A. LafreniereLW · #13	1	0	1	1	1	0	2	15:25
J.T. MillerLW · #8	0	0	-2	0	1	0	0	21:08
B. OthmannLW · #78	0	0	1	0	1	1	2	9:23
G. PerreaultRW · #94	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	14:52
T. RaddyshRW · #14	0	1	1	1	1	2	0	9:49
C. ShearyLW · #43	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	12:50
V. TrocheckC · #16	0	1	0	1	6	0	2	21:36
M. ZibanejadC · #93	0	0	-2	3	1	0	0	21:34

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
W. BorgenD · #17	0	1	2	2	2	2	0	18:58
A. FoxD · #23	0	0	-1	2	0	1	0	24:57
V. GavrikovD · #44	0	0	-2	1	0	0	2	23:10
V. IorioD · #6	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	11:53
M. RobertsonD · #29	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	17:29
B. SchneiderD · #4	0	0	2	3	0	3	0	22:34

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. ShesterkinG · #31	24	3	21	.875	61:42

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

NYR

Home

Shots

20.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

NYR lead series 2-1

Dec 20

PHI4@

NYR5

Jan 17

NYR6@

PHI3

Feb 27

PHI3@

NYR2today

Mar 9

NYR6@

PHI2

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYR -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PHI+12445%

NYR-14860%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYR -1.5↗SpreadBet NYR -1.5↗

Line movement · 19 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PHI beat NYR 3-2. M. Michkov led the way — 2 G · 2 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
PHI	0	1	1	1	3
NYR	1	1	0	0	2

Period scoring

PHI won 2 · NYR won 1

PHI

NYR

Play-by-play · 287 plays

period

event

player

OT·2:10
Game End
PHI 3·NYR 2
OT·2:10
End of OT
PHI 3·NYR 2
OT·2:10
Matvei Michkov Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Couturier (22), Nick Seeler (6)
· ·
PHI 3·NYR 2
OT·2:01
J.T. Miller shot blocked by Nick Seeler
·
PHI 2·NYR 2
OT·1:55
Vincent Trocheck Backhand saved by Samuel Ersson
·
PHI 2·NYR 2
OT·1:54
Mika Zibanejad Slap Shot saved by Samuel Ersson
·
PHI 2·NYR 2
OT·1:48
J.T. Miller Slap Shot Wide Left
·
PHI 2·NYR 2
OT·1:33
Mika Zibanejad shot blocked by Rasmus Ristolainen
·
PHI 2·NYR 2
OT·0:50
Mika Zibanejad Slap Shot Above Crossbar
·
PHI 2·NYR 2
OT·0:39
Sean Couturier Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
PHI 2·NYR 2
OT·0:00
J.T. Miller faceoff won against Sean Couturier
·
PHI 2·NYR 2
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
PHI 2·NYR 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
PHI 2·NYR 2
3rd·19:51
J.T. Miller faceoff won against Sean Couturier
·
PHI 2·NYR 2
3rd·19:51
Matvei Michkov Interference - Goalkeeper against Igor Shesterkin
·
PHI 2·NYR 2
3rd·19:48
Vladislav Gavrikov Snap Shot saved by Samuel Ersson
·
PHI 2·NYR 2
3rd·18:41
Vincent Trocheck hit Trevor Zegras
·
PHI 2·NYR 2
3rd·18:36
Matthew Robertson shot blocked by Cam York
·
PHI 2·NYR 2
3rd·18:23
Cam York hit Will Cuylle
·
PHI 2·NYR 2
3rd·17:52
Trevor Zegras shot blocked by Christian Dvorak
·
PHI 2·NYR 2
3rd·17:48
Christian Dvorak faceoff won against Vincent Trocheck
·
PHI 2·NYR 2
3rd·17:48
Goalie Stopped
PHI 2·NYR 2
3rd·17:44
Nikita Grebenkin Wrist Shot saved by Igor Shesterkin
·
PHI 2·NYR 2
3rd·17:07
Matthew Robertson Slap Shot saved by Samuel Ersson
·
PHI 2·NYR 2
3rd·17:05
Matthew Robertson shot blocked by Owen Tippett
·
PHI 2·NYR 2
3rd·17:03
J.T. Miller faceoff won against Sean Couturier
·
PHI 2·NYR 2
3rd·17:03
Goalie Stopped
PHI 2·NYR 2
3rd·17:02
Matthew Robertson Slap Shot saved by Samuel Ersson
·
PHI 2·NYR 2
3rd·16:55
Mika Zibanejad faceoff won against Sean Couturier
·
PHI 2·NYR 2
3rd·16:55
Puck in Benches
PHI 2·NYR 2

Betting line

NYR -1.5·O/U 5.5·PHI +124/NYR -148

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

hiladelphia Flyers went into New York Rangers and beat them, 3–2 in overtime.

PHI +1.5 cashed (NYR lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.5%

ensemble · NYR favored

Elo Static
55.5%
P(NYR win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
55.5%
P(NYR win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
55.5%
P(NYR win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+124

Close price

+124

Open no-vig

42.8%

Close no-vig

42.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHI at NYR?: The model favors PHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Philadelphia FlyersNew York Rangers

Elsewhere in the NHL