Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CGY at SJ?

The model favors SJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3CGY

CGY

24-27-6

27-25-4

NHLThu, Feb 26FinalSeriesCGY wins series 3-1VegasSJ -130

CGY · top performer

Nazem Kadri

C · #91

2Points

—

SOG

SJ · top performer

Tyler Toffoli

C · #73

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BacklundC · #11	1	1	2	5	0	1	0	18:57
J. BeecherC · #18	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	10:37
B. ColemanLW · #20	0	0	0	3	2	0	2	14:11
M. CoronatoRW · #27	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	15:56
J. FarabeeLW · #86	0	1	2	1	0	1	0	19:46
M. FrostC · #16	0	0	-1	0	0	0	2	13:33
M. GridinRW · #92	0	0	-1	1	0	3	0	13:54
N. KadriC · #91	2	0	2	5	1	0	0	18:54
A. KlapkaRW · #43	0	0	1	2	6	0	0	10:33
M. PospisilC · #76	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	8:01
Y. SharangovichC · #17	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	16:51
C. ZaryC · #47	1	1	3	4	0	0	0	17:34

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. BahlD · #7	0	0	2	0	2	3	0	24:44
J. HanleyD · #44	0	0	1	0	1	2	0	11:09
Y. KuznetsovD · #37	0	1	0	1	0	3	0	20:03
Z. ParekhD · #19	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	13:39
M. WeegarD · #52	0	1	1	1	1	5	0	20:53
Z. WhitecloudD · #28	0	1	1	0	0	3	0	24:45

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. WolfG · #32	35	1	34	.971	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. CelebriniC · #71	0	0	-2	5	0	0	0	22:30
W. EklundLW · #72	0	0	-2	4	2	1	0	17:39
B. GoodrowC · #23	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	9:03
C. GrafRW · #51	0	0	-1	4	2	1	0	16:33
P. KurashevC · #96	0	0	-1	3	0	0	0	15:18
M. MisaC · #77	0	1	-1	0	1	0	0	13:59
Z. OstapchukC · #63	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	8:55
R. ReavesRW · #75	0	0	0	0	9	0	0	8:00
K. SherwoodLW · #44	0	0	-1	5	8	0	2	19:09
W. SmithC · #2	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	15:55
T. ToffoliC · #73	1	0	-2	3	0	0	0	13:30
A. WennbergC · #21	0	0	-1	3	1	0	0	21:56

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. DesharnaisD · #5	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	16:26
S. DickinsonD · #6	0	0	0	1	0	2	2	17:55
M. FerraroD · #38	0	1	-1	0	0	1	2	18:01
J. KlingbergD · #3	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	23:05
T. LiljegrenD · #37	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	15:08
D. OrlovD · #9	0	0	-2	0	3	0	0	22:40

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Y. AskarovG · #30	28	3	25	.893	58:18

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

CGY

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

CGY wins series 3-1

Nov 14

SJ0@

CGY2

Dec 17

CGY3@

SJ6

Jan 31

SJ2@

CGY3

Feb 27

CGY4@

SJ1today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SJ -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CGY+11048%

SJ-13057%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SJ -1.5↗SpreadBet SJ -1.5↗

Line movement · 23 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CGY beat SJ 4-1. N. Kadri led the way — 2 G · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
CGY	0	1	3	4
SJ	0	1	0	1

Period scoring

CGY won 1 · SJ won 0

CGY

Play-by-play · 324 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
CGY 4·SJ 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CGY 4·SJ 1
3rd·19:09
Morgan Frost faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
·
CGY 4·SJ 1
3rd·19:09
Icing
CGY 4·SJ 1
3rd·18:57
Philipp Kurashev Wrist Shot saved by Dustin Wolf
·
CGY 4·SJ 1
3rd·18:43
Collin Graf Wrist Shot saved by Dustin Wolf
·
CGY 4·SJ 1
3rd·17:48
Joel Hanley hit Barclay Goodrow
·
CGY 4·SJ 1
3rd·17:41
Giveaway by Joel Hanley
CGY 4·SJ 1
3rd·17:30
Zack Ostapchuk faceoff won against John Beecher
·
CGY 4·SJ 1
3rd·17:30
Mikael Backlund Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Coronato (16), Zach Whitecloud (9)
· ·
CGY 4·SJ 1
3rd·17:14
Kiefer Sherwood Slap Shot Wide Right
·
CGY 3·SJ 1
3rd·17:02
Kiefer Sherwood Slap Shot Wide Right
·
CGY 3·SJ 1
3rd·16:58
Alexander Wennberg faceoff won against Mikael Backlund
·
CGY 3·SJ 1
3rd·16:58
Icing
CGY 3·SJ 1
3rd·16:53
Zach Whitecloud Wrist Shot Wide Right
CGY 3·SJ 1
3rd·16:51
Alexander Wennberg faceoff won against Mikael Backlund
·
CGY 3·SJ 1
3rd·16:51
Icing
CGY 3·SJ 1
3rd·16:48
Blake Coleman Backhand Wide Right
CGY 3·SJ 1
3rd·16:25
Alexander Wennberg faceoff won against Mikael Backlund
·
CGY 3·SJ 1
3rd·16:25
Goalie Stopped
CGY 3·SJ 1
3rd·16:24
Alexander Wennberg Backhand saved by Dustin Wolf
·
CGY 3·SJ 1
3rd·16:12
Tyler Toffoli Wrist Shot High and Wide Left
·
CGY 3·SJ 1
3rd·15:54
Tyler Toffoli shot blocked by MacKenzie Weegar
·
CGY 3·SJ 1
3rd·15:48
Giveaway by MacKenzie Weegar
CGY 3·SJ 1
3rd·15:31
Alexander Wennberg faceoff won against Nazem Kadri
·
CGY 3·SJ 1
3rd·15:31
Puck in Netting
CGY 3·SJ 1
3rd·15:28
Mikael Backlund Wrist Shot saved by Yaroslav Askarov
·
CGY 3·SJ 1
3rd·15:05
John Klingberg shot blocked by Yegor Sharangovich
·
CGY 3·SJ 1
3rd·14:33
John Klingberg shot blocked by Matvei Gridin
·
CGY 3·SJ 1
3rd·13:52
Giveaway by Macklin Celebrini
CGY 3·SJ 1

Betting line

SJ -1.5·O/U 6.5·CGY +110/SJ -130

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

algary Flames went into San Jose Sharks and beat them, 4–1.

CGY +1.5 cashed (SJ lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.2%

ensemble · SJ favored

Elo Static
61.2%
P(SJ win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
61.2%
P(SJ win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
61.2%
P(SJ win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-130

Close price

-130

Open no-vig

54.3%

Close no-vig

54.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CGY at SJ?: The model favors SJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Calgary FlamesSan Jose Sharks

Elsewhere in the NHL