NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3CGY

CGY

24-27-6

27-25-4

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Feb 26FinalSeriesCGY wins series 3-1VegasSJ -130

Recap · NHL

algary Flames went into San Jose Sharks and beat them, 4–1.

CGY +1.5 cashed (SJ lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CGY · top performer

Mikael Backlund

C · #11

2Points

—

SOG

SJ · top performer

Michael Misa

C · #77

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

CGY24-27-6

SJ27-25-4

CGY24-27-6SJ27-25-4

CGY

24-27-6

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

27-25-4

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

CGY wins series 3-1

Nov 14

SJ0@

CGY2

Dec 17

CGY3@

SJ6

Jan 31

SJ2@

CGY3

Feb 27

CGY4@

SJ1today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SJ -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CGY+11048%

SJ-13057%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SJ -1.5↗SpreadBet SJ -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CGY beat SJ 4-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
CGY	0	1	3	4
SJ	0	1	0	1

Period scoring

CGY won 1 · SJ won 0

CGY

Play-by-play · 324 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
CGY 4·SJ 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CGY 4·SJ 1
3rd·19:09
Morgan Frost faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
·
CGY 4·SJ 1
3rd·19:09
Icing
CGY 4·SJ 1
3rd·18:57
Philipp Kurashev Wrist Shot saved by Dustin Wolf
·
CGY 4·SJ 1
3rd·18:43
Collin Graf Wrist Shot saved by Dustin Wolf
·
CGY 4·SJ 1
3rd·17:48
Joel Hanley hit Barclay Goodrow
·
CGY 4·SJ 1
3rd·17:41
Giveaway by Joel Hanley
CGY 4·SJ 1
3rd·17:30
Zack Ostapchuk faceoff won against John Beecher
·
CGY 4·SJ 1
3rd·17:30
Mikael Backlund Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Coronato (16), Zach Whitecloud (9)
· ·
CGY 4·SJ 1
3rd·17:14
Kiefer Sherwood Slap Shot Wide Right
·
CGY 3·SJ 1
3rd·17:02
Kiefer Sherwood Slap Shot Wide Right
·
CGY 3·SJ 1
3rd·16:58
Alexander Wennberg faceoff won against Mikael Backlund
·
CGY 3·SJ 1
3rd·16:58
Icing
CGY 3·SJ 1
3rd·16:53
Zach Whitecloud Wrist Shot Wide Right
CGY 3·SJ 1
3rd·16:51
Alexander Wennberg faceoff won against Mikael Backlund
·
CGY 3·SJ 1
3rd·16:51
Icing
CGY 3·SJ 1
3rd·16:48
Blake Coleman Backhand Wide Right
CGY 3·SJ 1
3rd·16:25
Alexander Wennberg faceoff won against Mikael Backlund
·
CGY 3·SJ 1
3rd·16:25
Goalie Stopped
CGY 3·SJ 1
3rd·16:24
Alexander Wennberg Backhand saved by Dustin Wolf
·
CGY 3·SJ 1
3rd·16:12
Tyler Toffoli Wrist Shot High and Wide Left
·
CGY 3·SJ 1
3rd·15:54
Tyler Toffoli shot blocked by MacKenzie Weegar
·
CGY 3·SJ 1
3rd·15:48
Giveaway by MacKenzie Weegar
CGY 3·SJ 1
3rd·15:31
Alexander Wennberg faceoff won against Nazem Kadri
·
CGY 3·SJ 1
3rd·15:31
Puck in Netting
CGY 3·SJ 1
3rd·15:28
Mikael Backlund Wrist Shot saved by Yaroslav Askarov
·
CGY 3·SJ 1
3rd·15:05
John Klingberg shot blocked by Yegor Sharangovich
·
CGY 3·SJ 1
3rd·14:33
John Klingberg shot blocked by Matvei Gridin
·
CGY 3·SJ 1
3rd·13:52
Giveaway by Macklin Celebrini
CGY 3·SJ 1

Team stats

CGY

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

SJ -1.5·O/U 6.5·CGY +110/SJ -130

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 skaters with EDGE

Yan KuznetsovCGY · D
SHOT MPH100.297
Mikael BacklundCGY · C
SHOT MPH93.594
Joel FarabeeCGY · LW
DIST MI215.486
Matt CoronatoCGY · RW
DIST MI214.185
Morgan FrostCGY · C
BURSTS14285

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · SJ favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SJ win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SJ win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SJ win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-130

Close price

-130

Open no-vig

54.3%

Close no-vig

54.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Player projections

SJ vs CGY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

141

projections · 129 high confidence

Shots on goal

Macklin CelebriniSJ
3.4± 1.1high
Blake ColemanCGY
2.7± 1.6high
Matt CoronatoCGY
2.3± 1.4high

Goals

Macklin CelebriniSJ
0.6± 0.8high
Blake ColemanCGY
0.4± 0.7high
Morgan FrostCGY
0.4± 0.7high

Points

Macklin CelebriniSJ
1.4± 1.4high
William EklundSJ
0.9± 1.1high
Matt CoronatoCGY
0.8± 0.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands