Atlanta Dream at Dallas Wings
ATL
10-4
DAL
9-6
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
tlanta Dream visit Dallas Wings Wednesday at 7/29 - 8:00 PM EDT. ATL is rolling — 5-2 in their last 7. DAL is 4-3 in their last 7.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Team stats
ATL
Away
Stat
DAL
Home
44
FG %
46
Season series
ATL leads series 2-0
ATL77@DAL72DAL69@ATL86ATL@DALtodayScouting report
ATL @ DAL
Model edge vs market
Lean onlyMarket
—
Model
ATL -12.6
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
ATL
Edge
—
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
10-4
Record
9-6
#1
Conf rank
#4
+6.5
Pt diff
+4.9
W2
Streak
L1
7-3
Last 10
6-4
74.5
Power score
61.9
#4
Power rank
#5
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
44.4%
ensemble · ATL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
31%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
DAL vs ATL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
115
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Paige BueckersDAL18.2± 8.8medium
- Rhyne HowardATL18.1± 9.3medium
- Allisha GrayATL17.9± 5.6medium
Rebounds
- Angel ReeseATL12.0± 4.0medium
- Jessica ShepardDAL11.8± 4.2medium
- Naz HillmonATL5.2± 2.3medium
Assists
- Jordin CanadaATL6.8± 3.5medium
- Paige BueckersDAL6.1± 4.0medium
- Jessica ShepardDAL5.1± 3.5medium
Blocks
- Awak KuierDAL1.1± 1.2low
- Azzi FuddDAL1.1± 1.3medium
- Rhyne HowardATL0.8± 1.2medium
Steals
- Rhyne HowardATL3.0± 2.1medium
- Jordin CanadaATL1.9± 1.8medium
- Azzi FuddDAL1.6± 1.6medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
ATL
league avg
DAL
44.3%
FG%
44.6
▶45.8%
33.4%
3PT %
33.4
▶34.1%
88.6
PPG
85.7
87.6
19.9
Assists / G
18.0
▶23.1
12.9
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶10.3