San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 20, 2026

FINAL+1ATL

49-51

ATL

58-41

Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia

31,263 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

ATL spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

ATL no-vig %

56.4%

open 59.3% · -2.9

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.5%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
60.1%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
61.1%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
60.0%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.49 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+8.6pp

best edge · ATL · DraftKings

no live price

ATL

★ best

-123DraftKings

edge +8.6pp · implied 51.6%

Book	SD	ATL	Best edge
DraftKings	-107	-123★	+8.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

ATL vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

132

projections · 118 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.1± 2.4high
Michael KingSD
4.6± 1.6high
Bryce ElderATL
4.4± 2.1high

Hits

Ty FranceSD
1.4± 0.8high
Jackson MerrillSD
1.2± 1.2high
Drake BaldwinATL
1.0± 0.8high

Total bases

Matt OlsonATL
2.5± 2.4high
Jackson MerrillSD
1.9± 2.1high
Ty FranceSD
1.9± 1.1high

RBIs

Matt OlsonATL
0.8± 1.0high
Dominic SmithATL
0.7± 1.1high
Jackson MerrillSD
0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

Bryce ElderATL
3.1± 2.3high
Walker BuehlerSD
3.0± 2.8high
Griffin CanningSD
2.7± 2.4medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

ATL

.696

OPS

.719

▶

.733

.312

OBP

.318

.315

4.21

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.90

4.14

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.67

1.32

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.24

8.3

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

SD 2 · ATL 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ATL +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SD	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	2
ATL	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	3

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. Tatis Jr.RF	.282	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. MerrillCF	.219	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. Machado3B	.201	4	1	2	1	1	0	0
T. France1B	.279	4	1	2	1	1	0	1
G. Sheets1B	.216	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
X. BogaertsSS	.220	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Cronenworth2B	.194	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
F. FerminC	.159	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
S. Song2B	.231	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. Rengifo3B	.556	2	0	2	0	0	0	0
L. CampusanoC	.297	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. BowenRF	.149	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. DuranC	.146	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	2	7	2	2	2	5

Player

.282

.219

.201

.279

.216

.220

.194

.159

.231

.556

.297

.149

.146

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. SearsSP	5.0	3	2	1	0	3	55
W. PeraltaRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	22
B. RodriguezRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	17
K. HartRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	20
Team	8.0	4	3	2	2	8	114

Player

5.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

114

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. BaldwinC	.273	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
O. Albies2B	.266	4	1	2	1	1	0	1
M. Olson1B	.267	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Riley3B	.216	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
M. Harris IICF	.301	3	1	1	1	1	0	0
M. DubonLF	.265	2	1	0	0	0	0	1
J. BartC	.143	3	0	1	1	0	0	2
J. JarvisSS	.267	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. WhiteRF	.221	2	0	0	0	0	1	2
Team		26	3	4	3	2	2	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. ElderSP	6.0	5	2	2	1	4	77
D. YoungRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	13
V. MederosRP	2.1	1	0	0	1	1	29
Team	9.0	7	2	2	2	5	119

Team

ATL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Where to bet this game.

ATL vs SD.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ATL vs SD.

3 sub-models, blended.