Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SD at ATL?

The model favors ATL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 21, 2026

FINAL+5SD

50-51

ATL

58-42

Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia

31,870 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

ATL spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.5 · -0.5

ATL no-vig %

56.4%

open 57.2% · -0.8

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.5%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
59.9%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
61.8%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
60.1%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.85 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-149

Close price

-149

Open no-vig

57.2%

Close no-vig

57.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SD at ATL?: The model favors ATL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+12.8pp

best edge · ATL · DraftKings

no live price

ATL

★ best

-101DraftKings

edge +12.8pp · implied 47.1%

Book	SD	ATL	Best edge
DraftKings	-129	-101★	+12.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

ATL vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

133

projections · 118 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.1± 2.4high
Tyler MahleATL
4.8± 2.2medium
Michael KingSD
4.7± 1.6high

Hits

Ty FranceSD
1.3± 1.0high
Jackson MerrillSD
1.2± 1.1high
Drake BaldwinATL
1.0± 0.8high

Total bases

Matt OlsonATL
2.5± 2.4high
Jackson MerrillSD
2.0± 2.1high
Ty FranceSD
1.7± 1.1high

RBIs

Matt OlsonATL
0.8± 1.0high
Dominic SmithATL
0.7± 1.1high
Jackson MerrillSD
0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

Bryce ElderATL
3.1± 2.3high
Tyler MahleATL
3.0± 2.4medium
Walker BuehlerSD
3.0± 2.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

ATL

.694

OPS

.720

▶

.733

.311

OBP

.318

▶

.315

4.19

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.90

4.15

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.67

1.33

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.24

8.3

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

SD 8 · ATL 3 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ATL +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SD	1	0	0	3	1	1	0	2	0	8
ATL	0	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. Tatis Jr.RF	.286	5	2	3	3	1	0	1
J. Cronenworth2B	.196	3	0	1	0	0	2	2
M. Machado3B	.204	5	2	2	2	2	0	1
T. France1B	.282	5	0	2	1	0	0	3
J. MerrillCF	.222	4	1	2	1	1	1	0
L. CampusanoC	.291	5	0	1	0	0	0	2
G. Sheets1B	.215	2	1	0	0	0	2	1
X. BogaertsSS	.220	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
L. Rengifo3B	.500	3	1	1	1	0	1	0
J. BowenRF	.149	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		36	8	13	8	4	6	11

Player

.286

.196

.204

.282

.222

.291

.215

.220

.500

.149

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
W. BuehlerSP	5.2	2	2	2	5	3	90
Y. MatsuiRP	0.2	0	1	1	2	1	21
B. RodriguezRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	2	15
A. MorejonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	10
M. MillerRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	3	21
Team	9.0	4	3	3	8	9	157

Player

5.2

0.2

0.2

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

157

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. BaldwinC	.271	2	0	0	0	0	3	0
O. Albies2B	.262	5	0	0	0	0	0	3
M. Olson1B	.267	4	0	1	0	0	1	1
A. Riley3B	.213	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. Harris IICF	.301	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. DubonLF	.262	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
M. YastrzemskiLF	.228	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. HicklenRF	.357	3	1	0	0	0	1	3
J. JarvisSS	.292	3	1	2	2	0	1	0
J. BartC	.139	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		31	3	4	2	0	8	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. LopezRP	4.1	9	5	5	3	6	85
J. RitchieSP	3.2	3	3	3	3	4	68
T. KinleyRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	14
Team	9.0	13	8	8	6	11	167

Team

ATL

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

ATL vs SD.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ATL vs SD.

3 sub-models, blended.