Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SD at CHC?

The model favors CHC, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 1, 2026

FINAL+20CHC

43-42

323

CHC

49-38

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois

37,311 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CHC spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 12.0

open O/U 0.0 · +12.0

CHC no-vig %

54.2%

open 55.1% · -0.9

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.8%

ensemble · CHC favored

Elo Static
62.5%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
63.1%
P(CHC win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
62.8%
P(CHC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.24 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.77

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-136

Close price

-126

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

53.3%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SD at CHC?: The model favors CHC, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+8.5pp

best edge · CHC · DraftKings

no live price

CHC

★ best

-130DraftKings

edge +8.5pp · implied 54.0%

Book	SD	CHC	Best edge
DraftKings	+108	-130★	+8.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CHC vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 106 high confidence

Strikeouts

Shota ImanagaCHC
5.2± 1.6high
Matthew BoydCHC
4.6± 1.8low
Michael KingSD
4.6± 1.6high

Hits

Alex BregmanCHC
1.2± 1.4high
Nico HoernerCHC
1.2± 1.3high
Pedro RamirezCHC
1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
2.6± 3.1high
Manny MachadoSD
2.2± 2.5high
Jackson MerrillSD
2.1± 2.3high

RBIs

Seiya SuzukiCHC
1.0± 0.9high
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
0.8± 1.1high
Ty FranceSD
0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

David PetersonCHC
3.2± 3.2high
Aaron CivaleCHC
3.0± 2.7medium
Griffin CanningSD
2.8± 2.4medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

CHC

.696

OPS

.720

▶

.752

.312

OBP

.318

▶

.339

4.21

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.13

4.14

Team ERA

4.18

4.11

1.33

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.26

8.3

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

SD 3 · CHC 23 (by 20)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CHC +13pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SD	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0	3
CHC	3	1	5	0	4	2	0	8	23

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. Tatis Jr.RF	.280	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. Sheets1B	.234	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
M. Machado3B	.190	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
T. France1B	.273	4	0	2	1	0	0	2
J. MerrillCF	.211	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
X. BogaertsSS	.232	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. Cronenworth2B	.162	4	0	3	0	0	0	1
R. DuranC	.132	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. Song2B	.233	4	1	2	1	1	0	0
J. BowenRF	.118	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
F. FerminC	.147	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. TaylorLF	.333	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
M. AndujarDH	.262	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
Team		36	3	11	3	1	3	7

Player

.280

.234

.190

.273

.211

.232

.162

.132

.233

.118

.147

.333

.262

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
W. BuehlerSP	4.0	7	9	9	4	6	85
R. DuranC	2.0	7	8	8	1	0	31
K. HartRP	2.0	3	6	5	2	4	52
Team	8.0	17	23	22	7	10	168

Player

W. BuehlerSP

4.0

R. DuranC

2.0

K. HartRP

2.0

Team

8.0

168

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. Crow-ArmstrongCF	.287	4	2	2	3	1	0	1
A. Bregman3B	.240	5	1	0	0	0	1	0
M. Busch1B	.235	6	2	2	1	1	0	2
S. SuzukiRF	.274	5	3	3	3	1	1	1
I. HappLF	.223	3	2	1	0	0	1	2
N. Hoerner2B	.240	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
M. ConfortoDH	.248	4	4	3	4	2	1	0
M. AmayaC	.229	4	3	2	3	0	1	2
D. SwansonSS	.210	5	4	3	8	3	0	0
P. Ramirez2B	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. WicksRP	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. AlcantaraDH	.250	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
J. DeanCF	.500	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
Team		42	23	17	23	8	7	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. ReaSP	5.0	6	2	2	3	5	81
T. ThorntonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	6
J. WicksRP	3.0	5	1	1	0	2	40
Team	9.0	11	3	3	3	7	127

Team

CHC

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

CHC vs SD.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CHC vs SD.

3 sub-models, blended.